DBA - Chart Link- bounced off that double
bottom area, was also a tiny demand zone.
honestly I would have preferred it dump to the MUCH larger
support area/demand zone below as I think that area would be a hell
of a buy. We'll see....maybe it still goes there if this bounce
fails, we'll see
Posted by kingpin15 on 21st of May 2024 at 09:44 am
you ask right at the open, best to wait for slower time to ask
admin questions like that
anyway I looked doesn't do that on my side, I don't see any
issues, I tried it in both Chrome and Firefox browsers - maybe try
a reboot of your computer when you have time
I didn't spend a lot of time on this but some of you were asking
me to add the Election year data and account for it on the sell in
May and go away stats, I added the Election year on the left and I
highlighted those election years where instead of selling in May
you remained long during an election year.
long term the stats are a wash, it's almost 50:50 better one
year to stay long, worse another year. The years where it was
better to just stay long I highlighted in yellow, and the election
years where it was worse I highlight in magenta.
The last 3 election cycles back to 2012 has been better to just
stay long and not sell in May or by that MACD trigger I use.
However over the entire history it wasn't really better, it
was back and forth and 2008 was the worst time to stay long
obviously.
the biggest drain on the stats holding during an election year
was obviously 2008 because holding until Oct 28th when the next buy
signal would have occurred resulted in a -29.5% draw down loss.
this is a big image, so I suggest just opening the Google
Spreadsheet
Posted by mastermind on 21st of May 2024 at 03:00 am
Some STS entries definitely out of whack. Aside from JPM, which
should have stopped out today, TRV also shows the wrong price and
doesn't look like an entry day. URA shows as an entry today, but
already triggered on Friday. I suspect the update was
incomplete.
$GOLD - Chart Link- with the new high we have a
strong MACD divergence setting up likely some sort of wave 5, once
complete then I'd expect a deeper ABC pullback
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of May 2024 at 05:32 pm
Inflationary market melt-up like hasn't been seen in the United
States maybe ever is starting to be the base case I'm hearing on TV
and FinTwit. Suddenly I'm not alone! It was a little lonely there
for a while, now most of the birds seem to be chirping my tune
The way these cycles work is that once the majority figure
out what's going on (that they are chasing inflationary assets to
protect themselves from debasement and the other stories about
earnings and AI are mostly nonsense in comparison) then the
parabolic move really gets started as everyone panics in as fast as
they can.
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of May 2024 at 10:49 pm
Really anything with pricing power, but hard assets tend to do
well (I'd be very careful with real estate even though it's
considered to be an inflation hedge). I don't know how they plan to
directly monetize AI except by using it to reduce head count, but
the picks and shovels of AI...mostly NVDA have pricing power
because there largest customer is the Fed Gov. Same with GOOG,
MSFT, DELL, etc. If your largest customer can and will pay any
price for what you're selling, you're probably good.
Basically keep buying what has worked and don't get talked
into the stuff around the edges and a "broadening" thesis. We're
not going to broaden over the medium term...quite the opposite,
IMO. As price pressures increase and only the people who have
fed gov as largest customer retain bulletproof pricing power, the
rest will be buying chips from NVDA in panic mode in a race to
maintain margins via one of the only levers they have....reduced
headcount.
Think about it: are you going to pay NFLX more because they
made a better suggestion about what movie you might like or their
animation seems more seamless all of the sudden? No, but they will
be able to do a lot of those improvements with a LOT less people
going forward. Will completely new things be born as a result of
the AI explosion? I'm sure, but in the meantime, there's a battle
for all these companies to maintain margins...and there's a clear
path to use AI to reduce headcount so that's what will happen.
I created a trust for a client today with AI and he literally
fired his attorney this afternoon because he's been waiting 3 weeks
for it (I was finally like dude, I'm not an attorney, but
here you go, courtesy of GPT-4o). This is simply the way things are
going. Bottom line: chase whatever assets gov printed money is
chasing if you're going to be in equities. On the hard asset side,
those tend to just be a mirror of dilution over time...if they're
going through through the roof like now, you can be pretty sure the
opposite is happening with the value of the currency (underlying
value of commodities doesn't change as a group in the short to
medium term...but the value of the currency used to purchase them
does change)
AMZN edging below the 50dma
Posted by EdZ on 21st of May 2024 at 09:47 am
AMZN edging below the 50dma
DBA
Posted by matt on 21st of May 2024 at 09:45 am
DBA - Chart Link- bounced off that double bottom area, was also a tiny demand zone.
honestly I would have preferred it dump to the MUCH larger support area/demand zone below as I think that area would be a hell of a buy. We'll see....maybe it still goes there if this bounce fails, we'll see
Posted by kingpin15 on 21st of May 2024 at 09:44 am
LLY
Posted by steve on 21st of May 2024 at 09:43 am
LLY - Chart Link
Is this a bug: KISS
Posted by fluffycone on 21st of May 2024 at 09:29 am
Is this a bug: KISS STS Tables
When I refresh this page the result set toggles between 2-3 sets. See screen prints attached. I noticed his last night and again this morning.
https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_table/?search=BPT_basket
you ask right at the
Posted by matt on 21st of May 2024 at 09:31 am
you ask right at the open, best to wait for slower time to ask admin questions like that
anyway I looked doesn't do that on my side, I don't see any issues, I tried it in both Chrome and Firefox browsers - maybe try a reboot of your computer when you have time
Sell in May and Go away Stats with Election Year
Posted by matt on 21st of May 2024 at 09:15 am
I didn't spend a lot of time on this but some of you were asking me to add the Election year data and account for it on the sell in May and go away stats, I added the Election year on the left and I highlighted those election years where instead of selling in May you remained long during an election year.
long term the stats are a wash, it's almost 50:50 better one year to stay long, worse another year. The years where it was better to just stay long I highlighted in yellow, and the election years where it was worse I highlight in magenta.
The last 3 election cycles back to 2012 has been better to just stay long and not sell in May or by that MACD trigger I use. However over the entire history it wasn't really better, it was back and forth and 2008 was the worst time to stay long obviously.
the biggest drain on the stats holding during an election year was obviously 2008 because holding until Oct 28th when the next buy signal would have occurred resulted in a -29.5% draw down loss.
this is a big image, so I suggest just opening the Google Spreadsheet
LINK to the Sell In May and Go Away Stats Spreadsheet
USD small pop here back
Posted by steve on 21st of May 2024 at 09:04 am
USD small pop here back near Friday's high
LPSN off the bottom ?
Posted by bigg on 21st of May 2024 at 08:48 am
LPSN off the bottom ? 4 hr chart
VIX
Posted by steve on 21st of May 2024 at 08:47 am
$VIX - Chart Link- VIX into demand (tends to bounce when at these low levels)
Overall, market has two largest catalysts tomorrow with Fed Minutes and NVDA earnings
Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
Posted by steve on 21st of May 2024 at 08:36 am
Some STS entries definitely out
Posted by mastermind on 21st of May 2024 at 03:00 am
Some STS entries definitely out of whack. Aside from JPM, which should have stopped out today, TRV also shows the wrong price and doesn't look like an entry day. URA shows as an entry today, but already triggered on Friday. I suspect the update was incomplete.
XAUMF What happened to this sleepy
Posted by drmolar on 20th of May 2024 at 08:05 pm
XAUMF
What happened to this sleepy buy?
Monday's Newsletter May 20th, 2024
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2024 at 06:53 pm
No video today, as I did two of them on the weakened
Monday May 20th, 2024 Newsletter.
QQQ weekly
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2024 at 06:27 pm
QQQ - Chart Link- in additional to that MACD divergence setting up, a potential 1 year plus wedge wetting up
Gold
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2024 at 05:47 pm
$GOLD - Chart Link- with the new high we have a strong MACD divergence setting up likely some sort of wave 5, once complete then I'd expect a deeper ABC pullback
MTA
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2024 at 05:39 pm
MTA - Chart Link- another precious metal stock
SLI nice flag
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2024 at 05:38 pm
SLI - Chart Link-
SSRM, ASM follow up
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2024 at 05:38 pm
SSRM - Chart Link- new one I gave yesterday in newsletter that hadn't broken out
ASM - Chart Link- followed through, one from weekend
Inflationary market melt-up like hasn't
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of May 2024 at 05:32 pm
Inflationary market melt-up like hasn't been seen in the United States maybe ever is starting to be the base case I'm hearing on TV and FinTwit. Suddenly I'm not alone! It was a little lonely there for a while, now most of the birds seem to be chirping my tune
The way these cycles work is that once the majority figure out what's going on (that they are chasing inflationary assets to protect themselves from debasement and the other stories about earnings and AI are mostly nonsense in comparison) then the parabolic move really gets started as everyone panics in as fast as they can.
Dig. so, the appropriate response
Posted by mdgfain on 20th of May 2024 at 05:57 pm
Dig. so, the appropriate response for protection is precious metals, crypto, FCX, URA?
Really anything with pricing power,
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of May 2024 at 10:49 pm
Really anything with pricing power, but hard assets tend to do well (I'd be very careful with real estate even though it's considered to be an inflation hedge). I don't know how they plan to directly monetize AI except by using it to reduce head count, but the picks and shovels of AI...mostly NVDA have pricing power because there largest customer is the Fed Gov. Same with GOOG, MSFT, DELL, etc. If your largest customer can and will pay any price for what you're selling, you're probably good.
Basically keep buying what has worked and don't get talked into the stuff around the edges and a "broadening" thesis. We're not going to broaden over the medium term...quite the opposite, IMO. As price pressures increase and only the people who have fed gov as largest customer retain bulletproof pricing power, the rest will be buying chips from NVDA in panic mode in a race to maintain margins via one of the only levers they have....reduced headcount.
Think about it: are you going to pay NFLX more because they made a better suggestion about what movie you might like or their animation seems more seamless all of the sudden? No, but they will be able to do a lot of those improvements with a LOT less people going forward. Will completely new things be born as a result of the AI explosion? I'm sure, but in the meantime, there's a battle for all these companies to maintain margins...and there's a clear path to use AI to reduce headcount so that's what will happen.
I created a trust for a client today with AI and he literally fired his attorney this afternoon because he's been waiting 3 weeks for it (I was finally like dude, I'm not an attorney, but here you go, courtesy of GPT-4o). This is simply the way things are going. Bottom line: chase whatever assets gov printed money is chasing if you're going to be in equities. On the hard asset side, those tend to just be a mirror of dilution over time...if they're going through through the roof like now, you can be pretty sure the opposite is happening with the value of the currency (underlying value of commodities doesn't change as a group in the short to medium term...but the value of the currency used to purchase them does change)
Thanks for your elaboration, Digi.
Posted by mdgfain on 21st of May 2024 at 08:32 am
Thanks for your elaboration, Digi.
Bitcoin 4hr
Posted by matt on 20th of May 2024 at 05:09 pm
$BTCUSD - Chart Link- little supply zone in here were price pulled back from