QQQ - Chart Link

QQQ - Chart Link - bounced after testing fresh demand zone

LPSN  inverse H&S with backtest on 4 hr  ?

Understood.  Rookie mistake I guess. Thanks for checking anyway.

BTW, I was not expecting an answer right way. I was just reporting an observation to be added to the backlog for review later.

Last night, I figured the error was related to the system going through its update process.

I was using my home computer and tablet yesterday and I am using my work computer this morning.

AMZN edging below the 50dma

DBA - Chart Link- bounced off that double bottom area, was also a tiny demand zone. 

honestly I would have preferred it dump to the MUCH larger support area/demand zone below as I think that area would be a hell of a buy. We'll see....maybe it still goes there if this bounce fails, we'll see

LLY - Chart Link

you ask right at the open, best to wait for slower time to ask admin questions like that

anyway I looked doesn't do that on my side, I don't see any issues, I tried it in both Chrome and Firefox browsers - maybe try a reboot of your computer when you have time

Is this a bug:  KISS STS Tables

When I refresh this page the result set toggles between 2-3 sets.  See screen prints attached.  I noticed his last night and again this morning.  

https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_table/?search=BPT_basket

I didn't spend a lot of time on this but some of you were asking me to add the Election year data and account for it on the sell in May and go away stats, I added the Election year on the left and I highlighted those election years where instead of selling in May you remained long during an election year.

long term the stats are a wash, it's almost 50:50 better one year to stay long, worse another year.  The years where it was better to just stay long I highlighted in yellow, and the election years where it was worse I highlight in magenta. 

The last 3 election cycles back to 2012 has been better to just stay long and not sell in May or by that MACD trigger I use.  However over the entire history it wasn't really better, it was back and forth and 2008 was the worst time to stay long obviously.

the biggest drain on the stats holding during an election year was obviously 2008 because holding until Oct 28th when the next buy signal would have occurred resulted in a -29.5% draw down loss.

this is a big image, so I suggest just opening the Google Spreadsheet

LINK to the Sell In May and Go Away Stats Spreadsheet

USD small pop  here back near Friday's high

LPSN off the bottom ? 4 hr chart

$VIX - Chart Link- VIX into demand (tends to bounce when at these low levels) 

Overall, market has two largest catalysts tomorrow with Fed Minutes and NVDA earnings 

Thanks for your elaboration, Digi. 

Some STS entries definitely out of whack. Aside from JPM, which should have stopped out today, TRV also shows the wrong price and doesn't look like an entry day. URA shows as an entry today, but already triggered on Friday. I suspect the update was incomplete. 

Really anything with pricing power, but hard assets tend to do well (I'd be very careful with real estate even though it's considered to be an inflation hedge). I don't know how they plan to directly monetize AI except by using it to reduce head count, but the picks and shovels of AI...mostly NVDA have pricing power because there largest customer is the Fed Gov. Same with GOOG, MSFT, DELL, etc. If your largest customer can and will pay any price for what you're selling, you're probably good.

Basically keep buying what has worked and don't get talked into the stuff around the edges and a "broadening" thesis. We're not going to broaden over the medium term...quite the opposite, IMO.  As price pressures increase and only the people who have fed gov as largest customer retain bulletproof pricing power, the rest will be buying chips from NVDA in panic mode in a race to maintain margins via one of the only levers they have....reduced headcount.

Think about it: are you going to pay NFLX more because they made a better suggestion about what movie you might like or their animation seems more seamless all of the sudden? No, but they will be able to do a lot of those improvements with a LOT less people going forward. Will completely new things be born as a result of the AI explosion? I'm sure, but in the meantime, there's a battle for all these companies to maintain margins...and there's a clear path to use AI to reduce headcount so that's what will happen.

I created a trust for a client today with AI and he literally fired his attorney this afternoon because he's been waiting 3 weeks for it (I was finally like  dude, I'm not an attorney, but here you go, courtesy of GPT-4o). This is simply the way things are going. Bottom line: chase whatever assets gov printed money is chasing if you're going to be in equities. On the hard asset side, those tend to just be a mirror of dilution over time...if they're going through through the roof like now, you can be pretty sure the opposite is happening with the value of the currency (underlying value of commodities doesn't change as a group in the short to medium term...but the value of the currency used to purchase them does change)

XAUMF

What happened to this sleepy buy?

Yeah, no argument re. accurate inflation data...more a comment on ATH hype, which maybe is actually bullish as people realize we’re only reclaiming December 2021 (suggests headroom for more upside?), or bearish if the hype gets sold into. My skeptical side wonders if we need a new acronym? All Time Hype…All Time Hyperbole…All Time Hypocrisy? (that last one maybe captures your data skepticism, lol?)