Hello Everyone,
Also, I will be sending a Youtube Version of this newsletter once it's uploaded
Long Term: Bear Market, Intermediate Term: Downtrend, Short-Term: Downtrend - put in a wave 4 high last week, and may be in wave 1 of 5
Remember, surprises tend to happen in the direction of the trend. Respect the trend and continue to monitor.
Market Comments: Steve and I have done a good job calling the market this year. We warned about a bear market way back in December of last year, and confirmed it shortly after in early January. Plus our KISS Trending systems have done their job well staying out of the market and keeping you safe, and only going long for a short time. Our 21 reversion to mean systems have also killed it this year with almost 50 trades EACH on SPY and ES, as they do better and take a lot more trades in volatile markets.
Short-Term
: Last week the market rallied strongly on Monday to Wednesday morning before topping out in a wave 4 that we discussed and selling off strongly into Friday's close. Even though it doesn't feel like it, the major indexes still closed up for the week with the SPX gaining +1.5%, the Nasdaq +0.7%, and the IWM +2.25%. For now our favored view is that the market entered into a wave 5 pullback and is in sub wave 1 of 5. However, the lows have not been taken out yet.
News Events: All eyes on the CPI inflation data on Wednesday. Also, unfortunately we have to keep an eye on the Ukraine/Russia situation and Putin with Nukes.
Bonds/Rates: 20-year Bonds closed down for the week and 10-year rates closed up (still haven't taken out recent highs)
Currencies
: The US Dollar rallied last week but has not taken out recently highs, and currently sits at the 61.8% Fib retracement
Commodities: Commodities had a strong week, but unfortunately was lead by crude oil, and OPEC cut production, only pushing prices higher. Precious metals had a good week, however gold stalled at resistance, and monitor to see if GDX can form a higher low or not.
Reversion-to-the-mean systems: The reversion to mean systems have kicked ass this year, producing 50 trades on the SPY ETF, and 50 trades on ES
KISS Trend Systems: KISS daily systems have been in cash since 8/26/22 and have done their job well this year!
Matt
