Quick Note: Historic Session
Today was the 5th-largest intraday reversal from a low in the history of the S&P 500.
It was the 4th-largest in the history of the Nasdaq Composite.
I said that this week was going to be more volatile than last week (with the pattern in combination with the news catalysts). Today was 400+ points on ES (Up, Down, Up). Bear market rallies are vicious but allow for things to rebalance. Coming into today, most institutions were hedged while market makers had historically high put protection...much of that is gone now. They purged the bears and emptied the bus which leaves them quite vulnerable now for the intermediate term. The VIX did not really drop much with such a big move - that's a disconnect. Further, it has yet to break it's previous peak ($34.88) which keeps me grounded as it has yet to complete a 5 wave structure. Thus for me, day to day trading with smaller position sizing.
Goldman's volatility regime model suggests a continuation of the high volatility regime is more likely ahead. Buckle up! Remain nimble or move to the sidelines (trust me, many accounts will be blown up if they haven't already).
Next up, earnings season starting with the big banks tomorrow but much focus will be on BIG TECH later this month along with other potential impacts (like we've seen with BOE).
Please take a moment to look at the trade ideas.