Hello Everyone,
Thursday Comments:
No changes with a narrow range inside day on the major indices with OPEX. Energy is building with compressed ranges so expect an expansion soon. Thus far the bounces off the pullback lows look corrective so favor downside resolution but respect price action as the upward channel is still intact.
Last week, we spotted the rising wedge which broke down (gapped lower) within the channel. Then, as stated Thursday, price bounced up in a corrective manner (formed a bear flag) setting the stage for a move down (another gap down) on Friday to the initial target and flagged out into OPEX. On Monday, price gapped down again and moved sharply lower nearly filling the CPI gap from August 10th. Today, price drifted slightly lower but spent much of the day in a tight range. So once again energy is building for a range expansion move. Many oversold readings here so while we may see one more downside probe after today's sideways action, the risk reward is not nearly as attractive as when I pointed out the shorts/hedges last week. There is also timing for a low today or tomorrow so TRAIL stops downward on hedges and be on the lookout for evidence of a reversal (even if price were to move lower tomorrow). Should price move lower, the next SPX support zone below is 4115-4095 (where I would expect a reaction). Overhead resistance on ES 4145 4165. As long as SPX 4230-4260 remains intact the Bears have control.
Please take a moment to look at the trade ideas.
