Hello Everyone,
Reversion-to-the-mean systems: No new system trades
Long Term: Bear Market
Short-Term: Possible short term trade low - see comments below
Market Comments
: The SPX made a brief re-test of Friday's lows on the morning cash open (possibly completing a 5th wave pattern that Steve discussed on the weekend), then formed into a tight coil by late afternoon and finally breaking out of that coil to the upside. The major indexes gained +0.7 - 0.8% on average. If the market completed a trade low this morning, we are looking for a possible move up to the 3940 area (confluence of broken trendlines), or a move up to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels 38% = 3944, 50% = 3978, 61.8% = 4012.
Also note that both the VVIX and VIX are now starting to uncorrelated with with the S&P 500, many times this starts to occur near a market inflection.
News Items of Note: All eyes and ears on the FOMC on Wednesday
Bonds/Rates: Yield Curve made a new low once again, and longer term I'm monitoring a potential falling wedge on the weekly TLT 20 year bond chart
Commodities: Modest gains for the commodities with the DBC index up +0.3%. Precious metals gold and silver were mostly flat, however GDX was up +1.75%
Trade Ideas: Some of the p.m. stocks look interesting (BVN etc), NVDA 5th wave low, DENN nice base
have a great night,
Matt
