Hello Everyone,
Note, I also recorded a video however I'm having some technical difficulties with that, I'll post the video after I've figured that out. Otherwise, the video portion is why the standard newsletter audio starts off kind of weird
As far as the general market (realize that there is a lot of news driving this market and volatility is extreme), however that said our preferred scenario is still this leading diagonal, which would lead to one more new low for the SPX and QQQ's before forming an intermediate trade low (in a bear market) that could see prices work higher for a couple months. It's also possible that a low is in place, however for now we are favoring one more down move. If we see that move we are likely to see a spike in the VIX and fear, and perhaps a 90:90 down volume day would also be a good confirmation of a washout. On the SPX there's an open gap between 4020 - 4034 that could be a magnet (and often times you will overshoot this. However, the February low at 4115 - 4100 is also an area to watch for a possible double bottom.
This week, besides the on going and fluid Ukraine/Russian situation, we have the important FOMC on Wednesday and OPEX on Friday. Weekend futures appear that they will open positive, due to some positive discussion on the Russia/Ukraine war, however we've also see that fall apart quickly more than once.
This has been the year of commodities as I predicted it would be. I think it's pretty obvious that commodities are in a secular bull market cycle. However, in the short term intermediate term I'm looking for a 1 - 2 month consolidation in commodities once the general market puts in some sort of trade low.
My plan is to ride a short down in the market here in the short term, then go aggressively long if we get that washout and a move to those target areas on the SPX. My plan to make money on the reflective bounce in the bear market viewing it as a bear market rally, then at a later date (maybe 1 - 3 months look to establish swing shorts on the SPX lower high within the bear market, and get back into commodities (as they are in a bull market).
Enjoy the rest of your evening,
Matt
