Hello Everyone,
Quick Note: Bounce back day for the major indices ahead of the all important FOMC meeting tomorrow. The recent range on the SPX has been expanded slightly to 4150-4300 with energy building. The Fed is widely expected to raise 25 basis points but the real crux will be outlook via their commentary. Do they mention adjustments to the balance sheet? Anyway, it feels to me like the market wants to rally some BUT the question short term is do we get one more downside probe or can the market rally directly from this level. I simply choose to trade level to level in this trappy market until the market shows it's hand.
Today ES managed to reach to upside levels 4230 and 4260 with the next level above around 4290-4300 (bigger level) with support now 4180--90 to monitor prior to the meeting. I have added some new long setups but it's wise to keep some hedges handy. Less is more in a volatile market.
As far as trade ideas, we have primarily focused on commodities to the long side (energy, potash, agriculture, and precious metals) which have done extremely well with a few select shorts added when timely. It's simply too volatile to manage many individuals names so remain prudent.
Note: Several previous ideas on watchlist remain valid but simply have not yet triggered so continue to re-examine each night. Consider making a fresh top 10-12 setups each night and put on front page along with existing trades. My advice is to keep your total ideas to a manageable number. Lastly, it's best to wait at times for valid setups to form - sometimes less is more. Big moves tend to occur first and last hour and overnight sessions.
Please take a moment to look at the trade ideas.
