Hello Everyone,
The word 'Volatility' continues to be the best adjective to describe this market; we saw over 100 point range days from last Thursday into Tuesday, with today only be an 80 point range day for the SPX LOL. Huge fast moves up and down (day traders paradise if you have a system to trade this). The SPX tagged one of our major target areas that we showing last week (and in the weekend newsletter) in the 4160-75 zone, which also matched a symmetry target. The trade low for the SPX this year was in February at 4115, and one of our main targets is still the open gap from April 2020 in the low 4000 range. While the SPX is about 70 points off its 2022 trade low, the QQQ have undercut their lows, as well as IWM. Long term our backdrop view is that we are early in a bear market, and we have held this view since December and early January.
Today the indexes and most sectors formed doji candlesticks with today's bounce attempt inside yesterday's large down candles. FB is up after hrs this evening and that's helping things after hrs, and tomorrow the 'Big Dogs' report AAPL and AMZN. If the market is going to attempt an oversold bounce here, it needs to get going, we'll see if AAPL and AMZN can kick things off or not. The SPX really needs to get above 4240 by Friday and hold, otherwise from Friday afternoon traders probably won't want to go home over the weekend. So, we'll see if we can start some sort of b wave bounce here or just capitulate lower.
The tape on the market has been some of the worst Steve and I have seen since 2008 quite honestly, which supports our view of this being a bear market.
Matt
