Hello Everyone,
Quick Note: (Thursday's Comments) Needless to say it's been a hectic week with large gyrations (price swings 100+ points) all within the context of the prevailing downtrend. Although it's been painful with major price destruction in most areas, we have yet to see a true capitulation with a big spike in the VIX so this may still be in the cards. For the short term, investor sentiment is putrid (I posted the Fear Gauge earlier today with a reading of 6 - that's real fear) which is supported by other sentiment readings and outflows (liquidations). With this current backdrop, the market is in a position for a bounce (multi day not just 4 hours) but we need to see the bulls take back a key level and hold and build above. SPX/ES resistance around 3945-60 zone has has been containing all recent bounce attempts. Support below on ES around 1830 - ideal would be a washout to this zone and then a reversal back to close positive with bear market headlines hitting the news. Bottom line is that the bulls need to take out a key pivot to open the door for more upside. Remain nimble.
Current: The short term bounce that I discussed last Thursday has been unfolding the past few days. The SPX has now rallied over 200 points with next resistance on the SPX 4095-4150 and support 4060 and 4030. This remains a level to level market.
ES has some decent resistance around 4110 (like a pullback area) and 4150s with support below at 4050-70.
Please take a moment to look at the trade ideas.
