Hello Everyone,
Quick Notes: After trading in a range for several days (building energy), we finally broke out with a GAP to the upside following yesterday's strong close. Today the SPX and QQQ closed back above their respective 9 day EMAs but we did see prices pullback some after stalling near resistance. Thus far, we see 3 waves up and the bulls want to push again without an overlap of the first leg. Support tonight on the ES is around 4380/85 to monitor and tomorrow we have the monthly jobs report. Please see Matt's comments on the KISS system below.
Note: Several previous ideas on watchlist remain valid but simply have not yet triggered so continue to re-examine each night. Consider making a fresh top 10-12 setups each night and put on front page along with existing trades. My advice is to keep your total ideas to a manageable number. Lastly, it's best to wait at times for valid setups to form - sometimes less is more.
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Comments from Trading Community regarding the KISS Tools
Weekly has been no change it never exited, 2 day, daily long both versions long yesterday and then today
as far as the market - realize that two viable options for the market are that a 4th wave low is in and slight new highs will be formed, or 2 a lower high wave B forms that sucks the bulls in tricks the bears to cover, then we go down yet again. My thought is at this point a stop at yesterday's higher lows on the QQQ and SPX could be swing stop areas
longer term my concern is that the Quarterly charts will eventually need a longer consolidation to work that off - so my view that even if market makes new highs, it won't just run away, the easy money has been made from Mar lows of last year till now. Short term lows are either in we are still in this complex correction
for me the KISS stuff, as I've stated is not a full entry and exit system - it has entries but it's best at the moment more as a tool to manage an existing position in an uptrend. Generally it's best to get your own entries off some other trigger. I know everyone wants the perfect turn key thing but at the moment that doesn't exit and trend systems with a perfect entry and exit are extremely difficult - far more so than reversion to mean systems like the SPY.
anyway lots going on - earning season, etc. My thoughts if I felt like the bottom was in , my swing stop could be the higher lows I discussed in last night's video - the right shoulders on the SPX and QQQ. If I was still nervous then I might consider waiting for more evidence, or some combination. Many factors and there is not one simple answer.
Please take a moment to look at the trade ideas.
