Hello Everyone,
Also here's a Video Format of the Newsletter - you can also see our backend how Steve and I record.
Now you have both options, you have the standard format many of you like, but also a video format where you can see more detail because you can see where I'm pointing the mouse etc
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The market has continued to push higher since after that brief correction ended last Thursday morning. On Friday the SPX closed at a new all-time high and closed up 1.5% for the week. The Nasdaq 100 QQQ also closed at at a new all-time high on Friday and closed up 2.8% for the week. The Dow Jones closed up the least for the week gaining about 1%, while the Russell 2000 gained the most closing up 5% for the week! Basically, what we are seeing here is the Russell 2000 playing some catch up to the other indexes as it's lagged behind the other major indexes for so long.
As you know Jackson Hole was on Thursday and Friday and Powell on Friday basically made it clear that the Fed wasn't going to taper anytime soon. Let's face it guys, these billings and trillions of dollars of money printing and liquidity are what's been driving the market for years - at the end of the day that's all that maters. The market is like a hopelessly addicted heroin addict and the drugs (money printing and liquidity) must continue to flow in order to sustain the uptrend. Clearly the market responded very favorably to Powell's dovish comments on Friday.
This coming week, the two indexes that I'll be most focused on are the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500. If the market is going to continue higher the index I'd probably want to be in is the Russell as it has the most catch up to do and would likely outperform the other indexes on a % basis. Regarding the S&P 500 my concern at the moment is a possible 5 wave pattern, which I'll show on the 60 min time frame, that has MACD divergence. The SPX also tagged the 4500 area, which has been a target for many market technicians for a while. The market is also in a timing window where sometimes you see a change in trend, and September tends to be historically the weaker seasonality time of the year. Should the market start selling off right from here, the wave 5 top could come into play. However, if the market remains strong, and we continue to see the Russell 2000 outperform, then that would be positive for the 'Bulls'. So, let's see how the market reacts early this week, and your job will be to react accordingly. Remember, you project and monitor, but you react to what unfolds. Another thing to consider, the S&P 500 during over the last 6 market corrections has tested and then reversed/found support near its 50-day MA. Should the market enter another correction I don't think it will be lucky # 7, I think the SPX would lose the 50-day MA this time around, so take note.
Below we'll also take a look at a few key market indicators such as the VIX, VVIX etc. By the way, the VVIX did close slightly below 110 on Friday. We'll also look at all the major 21 market sectors. We'll look at commodities, which have all had a correction but seem to be recovering and the weaker dollar is helping. Precious Metals have had some wild action as of late, however that area looks like it has put in a potential bottom and may work higher over time.
Lastly, I'll go over a slew of recent trade ideas from the last 2 weeks that have triggered, and I did add a few more setups to monitor; though I had trouble finding a ton of grade A setups, so no reason to force the issue.
Also, at the same time I'm recording this video I'm also recording my screen for a video. It's a shame that Breakpoint Trades doesn't have a large YouTube presence, therefore I will attempt to change that and thus for the foreseeable future I'll be recording a video for the market newsletters, however the standard newsletter format the you love will still be available as well.
Matt
