USD small pop  here back near Friday's high

LPSN off the bottom ? 4 hr chart

$VIX - Chart Link- VIX into demand (tends to bounce when at these low levels) 

Overall, market has two largest catalysts tomorrow with Fed Minutes and NVDA earnings 

Thanks for your elaboration, Digi. 

Some STS entries definitely out of whack. Aside from JPM, which should have stopped out today, TRV also shows the wrong price and doesn't look like an entry day. URA shows as an entry today, but already triggered on Friday. I suspect the update was incomplete. 

Really anything with pricing power, but hard assets tend to do well (I'd be very careful with real estate even though it's considered to be an inflation hedge). I don't know how they plan to directly monetize AI except by using it to reduce head count, but the picks and shovels of AI...mostly NVDA have pricing power because there largest customer is the Fed Gov. Same with GOOG, MSFT, DELL, etc. If your largest customer can and will pay any price for what you're selling, you're probably good.

Basically keep buying what has worked and don't get talked into the stuff around the edges and a "broadening" thesis. We're not going to broaden over the medium term...quite the opposite, IMO.  As price pressures increase and only the people who have fed gov as largest customer retain bulletproof pricing power, the rest will be buying chips from NVDA in panic mode in a race to maintain margins via one of the only levers they have....reduced headcount.

Think about it: are you going to pay NFLX more because they made a better suggestion about what movie you might like or their animation seems more seamless all of the sudden? No, but they will be able to do a lot of those improvements with a LOT less people going forward. Will completely new things be born as a result of the AI explosion? I'm sure, but in the meantime, there's a battle for all these companies to maintain margins...and there's a clear path to use AI to reduce headcount so that's what will happen.

I created a trust for a client today with AI and he literally fired his attorney this afternoon because he's been waiting 3 weeks for it (I was finally like  dude, I'm not an attorney, but here you go, courtesy of GPT-4o). This is simply the way things are going. Bottom line: chase whatever assets gov printed money is chasing if you're going to be in equities. On the hard asset side, those tend to just be a mirror of dilution over time...if they're going through through the roof like now, you can be pretty sure the opposite is happening with the value of the currency (underlying value of commodities doesn't change as a group in the short to medium term...but the value of the currency used to purchase them does change)

XAUMF

What happened to this sleepy buy?

Yeah, no argument re. accurate inflation data...more a comment on ATH hype, which maybe is actually bullish as people realize we’re only reclaiming December 2021 (suggests headroom for more upside?), or bearish if the hype gets sold into. My skeptical side wonders if we need a new acronym? All Time Hype…All Time Hyperbole…All Time Hypocrisy? (that last one maybe captures your data skepticism, lol?)

No video today, as I did two of them on the weakened

Monday May 20th, 2024 Newsletter.

QQQ - Chart Link- in additional to that MACD divergence setting up, a potential 1 year plus wedge wetting up

Dig. so, the appropriate response for protection is precious metals, crypto, FCX, URA?

$GOLD - Chart Link- with the new high we have a strong MACD divergence setting up likely some sort of wave 5, once complete then I'd expect a deeper ABC pullback

MTA - Chart Link- another precious metal stock

SLI - Chart Link-

SSRM - Chart Link- new one I gave yesterday in newsletter that hadn't broken out

ASM - Chart Link- followed through, one from weekend

Inflationary market melt-up like hasn't been seen in the United States maybe ever is starting to be the base case I'm hearing on TV and FinTwit. Suddenly I'm not alone! It was a little lonely there for a while, now most of the birds seem to be chirping my tune   
The way these cycles work is that once the majority figure out what's going on (that they are chasing inflationary assets to protect themselves from debasement and the other stories about earnings and AI are mostly nonsense in comparison) then the parabolic move really gets started as everyone panics in as fast as they can.  

JPM closing price looks wrong on the STS tables. I think it already stopped out today.

$BTCUSD - Chart Link- little supply zone in here were price pulled back from

The silly part about that is that it doesn't even look great using the inflation numbers from the gov...which most undertand are not "real"...pun intended.  They're essentially trying to tell you that the market has performed X relative to inflation which they measure as (Y minus all the shit you really need and use in real life). There's a picture of the full equation in the dictionary next to "gaslighting" if you're interested. If you look at purchasing power adjusted, it's much worse....and even that is still with Gov numbers which can't be taken too seriously.

I've even heard Fed Governors admit during interviews that Gov inflation numbers are problematic. One I'm thinking of in particular, when the interviewer asked him "then why do we still pay attention to the Gov data?", he answered "What choice do we have?"  ...and that was a Fed Governor.

If you really think that the market has done that well in real terms over the last 4 years, I have some ocean front property in Nevada I think you might be interested in. I'll give you a great deal.