ARM - what is the appropriate level for a Fibonacci retracement
starting point? 2/1 low - yesterday high? as of yesterday, long Feb
23 129/120 put spread. Retrace for asymptotic moves is 38%,
correct? Thanks for the help
Steve/Matt, SPY QQQ - If this is a Wave B, what Fibonacci
levels should one reasonably utilize, given the structure you
observe thus far? i.e. 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% or 85.4% of wave A?
Thank you
Positives for semiconductors, and TSM, in particular:
“The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout
the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US
officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major
military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been
the case.” represents a material reduction of one of the major risk
factors for semis.
1) S&P Equalweight index (SPW) is the most over-bought it’s
been since the Summer of 2020 - e.g. 14-day RSI = nearly 75 (vs the
14-day RSI for the big 7 = just ~55). 2) we are coming off a period
of historic ‘easing’ – historic collapse in yields, historic rip in
equities; note: GIR rates strategy makes that further Yield
declines could be limited in the near-term. 3) Dec +
Jan are seasonally very weak months for the Momentum factor (worth
keeping in mind given HF long portfolios have reached a near-record
tilt toward Momentum as a factor. Sentiment continues to turn as
the 4-week change in the AAII Bear Index was one of the largest
drops we have seen in the last 20yrs (e.g. bearish sentiment in the
market is at its lowest level since Jan of 2018). Source: GS Global
Banking and Markets as of 12/4/23
Bill Gross pushing mortgage REITs AGNC and NLY yesterday - 16%
and 14% dividend yields, respectively. His previous call (Oct 3) to
get long regional banks such as CFG KEY and ET has been profitable.
He clearly likes the big dividend stocks that he thinks
aren't going to crap out.
specifically - Paul Sankey: Saudi could add 2M barrels (they
have capacity for 11m, vs current production 9m) and flush the oil
market down to $60 so that US producers stop expanding - they are
profitable at $60 / barrel oil. . The European integrated cos
Total, TTE and Shell - break even at $40 - more efficient than US
integrated cos.
Paul Hickey says: when Russell 2000 outperforms SPX by 3.5+%,
like today, (1987 Crash , Oct 2008 and Oct 2011), which doesn't
happen very often - going forward, small caps outperform the vast
majority of the time
high dividend funds don't necessarily offer recession resistant
growth, or inflation protection. The market is skewed toward
mega-cap growth (which, you are right, is mostly big cap tech),
because that's the source of forward earnings growth and protection
against inflation. take a look at MGK and VIG.
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Steve, assuming NVDA doesn't screw
NVIDIA Q4 2024 Adj EPS $5.16 Beats $4.64 Estimate, Sales ...
Posted by te22 on 21st of Feb 2024 at 04:52 pm
Steve, assuming NVDA doesn't screw up the conference call, what would the EW count suggest to you as next leg? Thank you
NVDA - long Mar 15
NVIDIA Q4 2024 Adj EPS $5.16 Beats $4.64 Estimate, Sales ...
Posted by te22 on 21st of Feb 2024 at 04:48 pm
NVDA - long Mar 15 730/800 Call spread and short $605 Puts in size + 3k shares :)
ARM - what is the
Posted by te22 on 13th of Feb 2024 at 11:49 am
ARM - what is the appropriate level for a Fibonacci retracement starting point? 2/1 low - yesterday high? as of yesterday, long Feb 23 129/120 put spread. Retrace for asymptotic moves is 38%, correct? Thanks for the help
Matt, Would you please provide
Posted by te22 on 1st of Feb 2024 at 09:50 am
Matt, Would you please provide a couple near-term exit price targets on URA? thanks
The chart links are appreciated.
Monday January 8th, 2024 Newsletter and Youtube Video
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 11:00 pm
The chart links are appreciated. Thank you.
…links to Dec 27th newsletter.
Monday January 8th, 2024 Newsletter and Youtube Video
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 10:33 pm
…links to Dec 27th newsletter.
Yes, thank you, Steve.
Steve/Matt, SPY QQQ - If this is a Wave B, ...
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 02:17 pm
Yes, thank you, Steve.
Steve/Matt, SPY QQQ - If
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 01:24 pm
Steve/Matt, SPY QQQ - If this is a Wave B, what Fibonacci levels should one reasonably utilize, given the structure you observe thus far? i.e. 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% or 85.4% of wave A? Thank you
Matt, what's the appropriate fib
NVDA very nice
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 10:49 am
Matt, what's the appropriate fib extension to use on NVDA for a intraday price target? 1.618 vs Dec18 high and Jan 3 low ($523.57)? thanks
Positives for semiconductors, and TSM,
some new long ideas
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 10:09 am
Positives for semiconductors, and TSM, in particular:
“The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case.” represents a material reduction of one of the major risk factors for semis.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military?sref=aqVfOg3J
Separately, NVDA has catalysts coming up with the reporting of some of their major customers: MSFT AMZN GOOGL
Rotation out of Mag7 into
Posted by te22 on 4th of Dec 2023 at 12:45 pm
Rotation out of Mag7 into the 493... Steve's simple guide: QQQ & SPY 30 min 50-10 SMA
GS: Technicals on our radar. 1)
Posted by te22 on 4th of Dec 2023 at 12:37 pm
GS: Technicals on our radar.
1) S&P Equalweight index (SPW) is the most over-bought it’s been since the Summer of 2020 - e.g. 14-day RSI = nearly 75 (vs the 14-day RSI for the big 7 = just ~55). 2) we are coming off a period of historic ‘easing’ – historic collapse in yields, historic rip in equities; note: GIR rates strategy makes that further Yield declines could be limited in the near-term. 3) Dec + Jan are seasonally very weak months for the Momentum factor (worth keeping in mind given HF long portfolios have reached a near-record tilt toward Momentum as a factor. Sentiment continues to turn as the 4-week change in the AAII Bear Index was one of the largest drops we have seen in the last 20yrs (e.g. bearish sentiment in the market is at its lowest level since Jan of 2018). Source: GS Global Banking and Markets as of 12/4/23
IWM 61.8% retrace...Matt, don't you
IWM - trend day, so far. I'm long SPSM (prefer ...
Posted by te22 on 1st of Dec 2023 at 01:04 pm
IWM 61.8% retrace...Matt, don't you always say to expect a reaction at the 61.8% "Master Fib"?
Bill Gross pushing mortgage REITs
Posted by te22 on 1st of Dec 2023 at 11:52 am
Bill Gross pushing mortgage REITs AGNC and NLY yesterday - 16% and 14% dividend yields, respectively. His previous call (Oct 3) to get long regional banks such as CFG KEY and ET has been profitable. He clearly likes the big dividend stocks that he thinks aren't going to crap out.
UUP - the only new
Posted by te22 on 1st of Dec 2023 at 11:50 am
UUP - the only new KISS long yesterday in the BPT top 100 ETFs
IWM - trend day, so
Posted by te22 on 1st of Dec 2023 at 11:23 am
IWM - trend day, so far. I'm long SPSM (prefer the profitable small caps vs IWM which has 40% "zombie"/unprofitable companies).
specifically - Paul Sankey: Saudi
Very good Oil Guru on CNBC last evening said Saudis ...
Posted by te22 on 1st of Dec 2023 at 11:20 am
specifically - Paul Sankey: Saudi could add 2M barrels (they have capacity for 11m, vs current production 9m) and flush the oil market down to $60 so that US producers stop expanding - they are profitable at $60 / barrel oil. . The European integrated cos Total, TTE and Shell - break even at $40 - more efficient than US integrated cos.
Paul Hickey says: when Russell
Posted by te22 on 14th of Nov 2023 at 04:15 pm
Paul Hickey says: when Russell 2000 outperforms SPX by 3.5+%, like today, (1987 Crash , Oct 2008 and Oct 2011), which doesn't happen very often - going forward, small caps outperform the vast majority of the time
high dividend funds don't necessarily
High Dividend ETF's like SCHD and VYM (potential RS) This damn ...
Posted by te22 on 10th of Nov 2023 at 01:22 pm
high dividend funds don't necessarily offer recession resistant growth, or inflation protection. The market is skewed toward mega-cap growth (which, you are right, is mostly big cap tech), because that's the source of forward earnings growth and protection against inflation. take a look at MGK and VIG.
here's the image that went
On CNBC yesterday Mike Santoli showed history of market after ...
Posted by te22 on 10th of Nov 2023 at 11:59 am
here's the image that went along w the Santoli comments - the pullback is mighty shallow - could already be complete...