did you not see my post on the the weekend, and Steve discussed
in the newsletter as well. Again Bitcoin is probably going to
go where the market goes, it's kind of like a greatly leveraged
Nasdaq. If the major indexes go through that ABC then Bitcoin
likely would follow down too IMO, needs to lose that shelf
support
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Apr 2024 at 12:21 pm
I'm being careful about reducing exposure to BTC (and everything
else) and quick to get back in on whipsaws. There is a potential
double whammy coming this week in the form of QRA that will likely
keep duration short and borrowing projections at current levels or
higher and then the Fed is likely to announce they are cutting QT
in half or possibly suspending it completely (it might be buried in
the notes, like it was 2 meetings ago but it's probably coming).
The short duration move already effectively sterilized QT, so
continuing with that bonkers strategy plus a reduced or eliminated
QT will be like throwing a christmas tree on a campfire.
Definitely the potential for an emerging market style debt
fueled rally of epic proportions.
Digi - if the SPX and QQQ's go through that wave C down once
this B wave bounce is over (assuming that's what it is) and Bitcoin
follows suit and falls to the low 50K range, I think it will be
heck of a buy there and a place you could consider loading or
buying back what you sold (I'm not likened so I can't give advice,
that's just what I'd be doing personally, you do what fits you,),
of course along with the indexes again
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Apr 2024 at 12:28 pm
I agree....as long as they keep printing like this, the crash
risk is to the upside...and they haven't even mentioned that they
are concerned so we have to expect it will continue. I think
there's a higher than average potential that the wave count gets
blown out again like it did last year. Any move down is fighting
against MASSIVE global stimulus levels and the entire globe
essentially panicking into whatever assets they can find that seem
likely to hold up to the money printing onslaught.
I am licensed, but I'm not any of your financial advisor (no
contract)
Plus, FA's don't have an edge, per say. Maybe if I was
a CFA instead of a CFP, but it's still incredibly complicated to
figure out economics and markets and even the best of the best get
some calls wrong.
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Apr 2024 at 12:35 pm
Some of you guys might have forgotten about the preferred wave
count getting completely blown out of the water last year, but I
will probably be thinking about that one for many years.
Lesson learned but it's still a bit raw. The mistake,
again, was underestimating the money printing.
And you would need to post exact examples I don't really know
what you are referring to and sounds like something from
quite a while ago. again I don't see the point - if we did
have some preferred wave count at one time that didn't play out -
so that means our current analysis or favored scenario should be
taken with a grain of salt?
regarding wave counts, there's always multiple counts - and
comments like this is why we don't like to talk about wave counts
that often because someone will remember something and throw it
back at you later- remember when you said you favored this but it
didn't happen? It's like having a nagging wife that recalls
what I said 10 years ago at dinner and is angry again about it
LOL
To me focusing on or even putting mental energy into something
that like is a waste of time and doesn't help you or anyone.
How many times does a trader look at a chart and see a possible
bull flag, or falling wedge, and those patterns end up morphing
into other patterns - does that mean that trader should not be
trusted? No, it's not about having a crystal ball telling you
exactly what is going to happen and being right all the time - no
one knows.
There's patterns and setups and many times those work and other
times they may morph into something else and you adjust or don't
take the trade - it's about identifying possible inflection points
or where you might be able to get an objective trade setup with a
tight stop
when analyzing the market you project, monitor, and adjust -
it's always been that way and always will be
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Apr 2024 at 01:11 pm
I don't trust your analysis for my work, Matt. Sorry. I only
trust my own so any "preferred counts" are my own. I often look at
your ideas, but all final analysis and trades I make are 100% my
own and my full responsibility.
We happened to be mostly in agreement around the time I'm
thinking of, but that's not always the case, and that's fine. And
even then, your analysis had started to shift slightly before
mine.
BTC feels like a dive
Posted by shellson2 on 29th of Apr 2024 at 11:37 am
BTC feels like a dive imminent...anyone else agree?
Thin Zone in its sights
Posted by shellson2 on 30th of Apr 2024 at 03:15 pm
Thin Zone in its sights
Bounced right off for now
Posted by shellson2 on 30th of Apr 2024 at 03:22 pm
Bounced right off for now
did you not see my
Posted by matt on 29th of Apr 2024 at 12:08 pm
did you not see my post on the the weekend, and Steve discussed in the newsletter as well. Again Bitcoin is probably going to go where the market goes, it's kind of like a greatly leveraged Nasdaq. If the major indexes go through that ABC then Bitcoin likely would follow down too IMO, needs to lose that shelf support
https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/428135/
I'm being careful about reducing
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Apr 2024 at 12:21 pm
I'm being careful about reducing exposure to BTC (and everything else) and quick to get back in on whipsaws. There is a potential double whammy coming this week in the form of QRA that will likely keep duration short and borrowing projections at current levels or higher and then the Fed is likely to announce they are cutting QT in half or possibly suspending it completely (it might be buried in the notes, like it was 2 meetings ago but it's probably coming). The short duration move already effectively sterilized QT, so continuing with that bonkers strategy plus a reduced or eliminated QT will be like throwing a christmas tree on a campfire. Definitely the potential for an emerging market style debt fueled rally of epic proportions.
Digi - if the SPX
Posted by matt on 29th of Apr 2024 at 12:23 pm
Digi - if the SPX and QQQ's go through that wave C down once this B wave bounce is over (assuming that's what it is) and Bitcoin follows suit and falls to the low 50K range, I think it will be heck of a buy there and a place you could consider loading or buying back what you sold (I'm not likened so I can't give advice, that's just what I'd be doing personally, you do what fits you,), of course along with the indexes again
I agree....as long as they
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Apr 2024 at 12:28 pm
I agree....as long as they keep printing like this, the crash risk is to the upside...and they haven't even mentioned that they are concerned so we have to expect it will continue. I think there's a higher than average potential that the wave count gets blown out again like it did last year. Any move down is fighting against MASSIVE global stimulus levels and the entire globe essentially panicking into whatever assets they can find that seem likely to hold up to the money printing onslaught.
I am licensed, but I'm not any of your financial advisor (no contract) Plus, FA's don't have an edge, per say. Maybe if I was a CFA instead of a CFP, but it's still incredibly complicated to figure out economics and markets and even the best of the best get some calls wrong.
Thx for the feed back
Posted by shellson2 on 29th of Apr 2024 at 01:11 pm
Thx for the feed back
Some of you guys might
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Apr 2024 at 12:35 pm
Some of you guys might have forgotten about the preferred wave count getting completely blown out of the water last year, but I will probably be thinking about that one for many years. Lesson learned but it's still a bit raw. The mistake, again, was underestimating the money printing.
And you would need to
Posted by matt on 29th of Apr 2024 at 01:08 pm
And you would need to post exact examples I don't really know what you are referring to and sounds like something from quite a while ago. again I don't see the point - if we did have some preferred wave count at one time that didn't play out - so that means our current analysis or favored scenario should be taken with a grain of salt?
regarding wave counts, there's always multiple counts - and comments like this is why we don't like to talk about wave counts that often because someone will remember something and throw it back at you later- remember when you said you favored this but it didn't happen? It's like having a nagging wife that recalls what I said 10 years ago at dinner and is angry again about it LOL
To me focusing on or even putting mental energy into something that like is a waste of time and doesn't help you or anyone. How many times does a trader look at a chart and see a possible bull flag, or falling wedge, and those patterns end up morphing into other patterns - does that mean that trader should not be trusted? No, it's not about having a crystal ball telling you exactly what is going to happen and being right all the time - no one knows.
There's patterns and setups and many times those work and other times they may morph into something else and you adjust or don't take the trade - it's about identifying possible inflection points or where you might be able to get an objective trade setup with a tight stop
when analyzing the market you project, monitor, and adjust - it's always been that way and always will be
Hay don't talk about my
Posted by srusso1 on 29th of Apr 2024 at 01:13 pm
Hay don't talk about my wife like that. Ha Ha
Seems like low volume day
Posted by srusso1 on 29th of Apr 2024 at 01:20 pm
Seems like low volume day to?
yeah mine too! i hope
Posted by morton7 on 29th of Apr 2024 at 01:19 pm
yeah mine too! i hope she doesnt read my post, lol.... another 10 yrs..
I don't trust your analysis
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Apr 2024 at 01:11 pm
I don't trust your analysis for my work, Matt. Sorry. I only trust my own so any "preferred counts" are my own. I often look at your ideas, but all final analysis and trades I make are 100% my own and my full responsibility.
We happened to be mostly in agreement around the time I'm thinking of, but that's not always the case, and that's fine. And even then, your analysis had started to shift slightly before mine.
BTC 4 hr......on support off a volume
Posted by breakout on 29th of Apr 2024 at 11:44 am
BTC 4 hr......on support off a volume bar from April 17th is what i c....59780 is low of that bar high is 62875. looks long so far.