Posted by frtaylor on 27th of Jul 2012 at 01:38 pm
Wait and see the EOD numbers? Looks like a good short, if
nothing else as a hedge. Could use some words of wisdom!
I now have a few long positions from this morning, and I keep
thinking about the action all summer long - chop. How is this
time any different? Expect the expected?
if you have a bunch of longs, hedging makes sense. Or you
could take a short with a conditional stop based on the SPX going
above the upper trendline say 1390 or so. Or wait for some
kind of trigger on an intra day time frame like a 1 or 5 min chart,
then set your stop.
Posted by frtaylor on 27th of Jul 2012 at 02:51 pm
60 Stochastics have been above 80% all day so far on the
5-minute SPX chart. Times that it has closed above that level have
always been a good short-term short. Especially so if you short the
third, afternoon push higher.
here's a 60 min chart of the SPY, stop could go around this
range.
otherwise things are overbought, but no real divergences on the
30, 60 min charts, however the last high on the 5 min chart was
divergent, however it's still above the 20 EMA, watch 60 Stochastic
above 80%, regular 14 Stochastic might need to get overbought etc.
again if you have a lot of longs that you want to hedge, it
might make sense, or if you want an aggressive short, but realize
you must have a stop in place
last Friday frtaylor asked me about taking a short for a hedge,
I posted this 60 min SPY chart with a fairly tight stop, so far
that's panning out, here's a link to last week's chart and updated
view
SPX daily charts
Posted by matt on 27th of Jul 2012 at 01:36 pm
$SPX - Chart Link - Pivot level just above
$SPX - Chart Link - and of course the downtrend line and the big 78.6% Fib that Steve discussed long ago. Also the upper trendline is resistance
Wait and see the EOD
Posted by frtaylor on 27th of Jul 2012 at 01:38 pm
Wait and see the EOD numbers? Looks like a good short, if nothing else as a hedge. Could use some words of wisdom! I now have a few long positions from this morning, and I keep thinking about the action all summer long - chop. How is this time any different? Expect the expected?
if you have a bunch
Posted by matt on 27th of Jul 2012 at 01:56 pm
if you have a bunch of longs, hedging makes sense. Or you could take a short with a conditional stop based on the SPX going above the upper trendline say 1390 or so. Or wait for some kind of trigger on an intra day time frame like a 1 or 5 min chart, then set your stop.
60 Stochastics have been above
Posted by frtaylor on 27th of Jul 2012 at 02:51 pm
60 Stochastics have been above 80% all day so far on the 5-minute SPX chart. Times that it has closed above that level have always been a good short-term short. Especially so if you short the third, afternoon push higher.
thanks for the input. It's
Posted by frtaylor on 27th of Jul 2012 at 02:13 pm
thanks for the input. It's so hard to buy longs in this environment. Using VIX calls (lightly).
Sometimes the toughest trade is
Posted by steveo on 27th of Jul 2012 at 09:07 pm
Sometimes the toughest trade is the best trade
Meaning what in this case?
Posted by hamvestor on 27th of Jul 2012 at 10:29 pm
Meaning what in this case?
Just meaning that frtaylor was
Posted by steveo on 28th of Jul 2012 at 12:42 am
Just meaning that frtaylor was saying "it's so hard to buy longs in this environment".
Presidential cycle with a Dem in office is almost ALWAYS a massive ramp job into the election.
QE 4/5 seems nearly imminent.
My charts for currencies show Cable to run up, and Bucky down.
The news is used as a psyops against investors, when the news seem god awful and pointedly so, expect a deer in the headlights ramp.
Based on news and sentiment, the hard trade is long, everything says long is the winning trade IMHO. Take the hard trade.
here's a 60 min chart
Posted by matt on 27th of Jul 2012 at 02:56 pm
here's a 60 min chart of the SPY, stop could go around this range.
otherwise things are overbought, but no real divergences on the 30, 60 min charts, however the last high on the 5 min chart was divergent, however it's still above the 20 EMA, watch 60 Stochastic above 80%, regular 14 Stochastic might need to get overbought etc.
again if you have a lot of longs that you want to hedge, it might make sense, or if you want an aggressive short, but realize you must have a stop in place
last Friday frtaylor asked me
Posted by matt on 31st of Jul 2012 at 04:07 pm
last Friday frtaylor asked me about taking a short for a hedge, I posted this 60 min SPY chart with a fairly tight stop, so far that's panning out, here's a link to last week's chart and updated view
http://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/205550/#205560
SPY 60 min last week