Sorry but what does that mean Steve?!

FXY - it looks like the intervention is finally happening. I would guess it's a coordinated effort between the trilateral group that met in DC the week before last, but we'll never know for sure.

STS Weekly - all of the major indexes are still long and within 2% of hitting STS's.  Makes for a compelling area to try some longs with relatively tight stops possible (just in case the market decides to skip past the normal corrective type action again and go straight into Zimbabwe mode).   GLD only 2.27% away from STS on the daily version...it's 9.5% away on the weekly.

I personally think we're setting up to crash... higher. It could come with a nice headfake lower first, but I'm pretty sure it will resolve in a crash higher.  That's the message I get from the recent currencies, bonds and gold actions. 

The fed is in the backseat now anyway. We have transitioned into fiscal dominance. We're just so used to following the Feds moves to inform our thoughts about potential future market direction and old habits die hard. Not many have alive have traded through a period of fiscal dominance (even fewer even realize we've switched)  and this one is looking to be like no other...the 40's will be the nearest analog.

Given the lack of historical analogue for this unprecedented dominance, I wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't follow historical norms. We've already seen hints at disconnects (remember when we blew through 4600 like it's wasn't even there?). I think we're much more likely to act like an emerging market going forward. That would include maybe a messy crash type event here shortly, but the following YCC intervention will most likely lead to a rally like has never been seen in the US. Asset prices are likely to go through the roof...Zimbabwe style. We could even skip the whole crash part and just start accelerating higher. It kind of depends on when they turn on YCC type measures (which the Fed will be forced into because they are being dominated by the fiscal side). 

With the possiblility of another leg down ahead, we might want to follow UVXY. If the VIX is really going to pop, UVXY is a great way to trade it. Just don't overstay your welcome.

Really nice charts, thanks.

Equity share of total global fund assets has reached a new record in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs.

TSM - Chart Link - watch 20 day for hurdle (build above or reject)

COIN - Chart Link - coiling 

CAVA - Chart Link

Thanks for the newsletter getting out early!  Nice analyses!

Weekend Newsletter

ALAB good volume on range break Friday - one to monitor 

CAVA big volume move last week - some consolidation would be welcome

QRA Monday and its composition Wednesday

Yen continues to weaken while JGB yields rise. 

Thread to Peruse

Shapiro Thread

the daily KISS charts with the MA ribbon also for now favor the scenario I laid out. Notice MA ribbon is pinching from the underside and price is coming up underside of the 50 MA and ATR - I think one of those areas will offer resistance

what would trigger the KISS daily SPX and QQQ's to go back long? Right from there you would have to have price go well above the ATR on a closing basis.

that said, if this wave B lower high scenario plays out, the KISS system then has an opportunity to long after the wave C decline and then the ABC buy conditions may kick in that would allow these to go back long just 2 or 3 days off the lows. ABC's and washout longs are my favorite triggers on the KISS

and Bitcoin would likely follow the market down if that scenario were to play out that I illustrated below, vs being a safe haven.

$BTCUSD - Chart Link that big shelf support is important for bitcoin, if it is broken, a quick move to the lower 50's will occur

$BTCUSD - Chart Link

BITI - Chart Link Inverse ETF is the way to play it, and has a nice base forming

This matches up with my cycle man Stan Harley. Called the recent  correction, now bounce into mid month and we roll over again.