Symmetry to the upside was broken today. 622 on the front month contract is the key resistance before moving higher.

On Chicago wheat, I would expect a path similar to that of December of last year leading towards the ultimate low. Screenshots from Dec 2022 and May 2023 are attached.

Thanks. I foresee a possibility of indexes adjusting lower instead of bond prices adjusting higher, essentially a reversal of the discrepancy that occurred in December of last year. Back then one month worth of move on bonds went unnoticed.

DigiNomad, what is your outlook for bonds?

1950-5 support on gold futures has been defended, and it held.  Based on inside information, that is the current floor for gold prices. Any test of that level is a low risk buy. Gold is oversold short term.

Any drop on the indexes is met with buying gold. I look into the week of June 5 for a likely low in gold prices.

Grains are higher today. Soft red wheat (Chicago wheat) is posting a key reversal today. I expect this push higher to fail eventually, and a lower low to be posted. Today's low undercut the previous low, and a reversal happened overnight.

Edit: moving averages are pointing lower, so rallies should be sold.

According to Gregory Mannarino,  it is due to a global bond market selloff. He has that if this keeps going, it's over (a video on youtube).

This looks to me like wave 4 consolidation. A bearish resolution to it will entails only 3 waves up.

Very long-term fundamental analysis of gold by Andrew Maguire.

Matt should code Steve vacation indicator in Tradestation and put it on his charts, too :-) LoL.

rp, /GC short could last for another day based on a trade short.

Gold does not rise because more money has been printed. Gold does not rise when confidence in USD is present as a store of value. Rising inflation will change that!

The difference is due to international buyers of debt. High yield on USD attracts international buyers. With gold, the dynamic is the opposite: Western Central Bank need to buy gold even more than the rest of the world. Are they buying it yet? That is the question. They are not selling because they have already sold everything they could.

The correlation between the dollar and gold does not work any more since 1/1/23, at least.  Paper gold ended on that date. It is a short squeeze since.

Edi: /GC holds above $1950 because Central banks are buying on dips. All of them. So far only Central banks.

arun, The stock market has nothing to do with the economy. Buy the rumor, sell the news on the debt ceiling. The move up has been corrective. A running flat is still a corrective move. PSAR trailing stop is at 13368-ish. I expect it to be approached next week. 13407 to 13382 is the support that must hold on /NQ.

I am not good at playing the musical chairs near the top. I prefer to gobble at the bottom on sale.  Good luck to you!

There is no point to stand in front of a freight train. /NQ target is about 14,000. I am trailing my stop.

Edit: /NQ will gap down on Monday erasing all the gains straight from the manipulation playbook used in early February. Fool me once..

/GC lost its ledge support at 1980. 1950 is the target to cover shorts and to buy for a bounce.

mundy, selling premium is inherently risky. The bottom line is either 50% of the credit received (about $160 per spread) in 2 months is either worth the trouble of holding a position or not.

regarding setups. I do not trade them for similar reasons as stated. In addition, I would like a setup to be confirmed by a momentum indicator similar to SPY systems, as I cannot watch them during the day.  A squeeze indicator should be of help here, yet I am not an expert on its use yet.

To be actionable, setups ought to be vetted by internals in addition to looking right. If one can watch them during the day, this is not necessary, of course. Most of people posting here cannot afford that luxury, in my humble opinion. This is not a criticism of the idea or the way others do it.

I know of the argument against holding to expiration for 0DTE. The last week may add almost nothing to the credit owing but will hog up the margin. It is a very good argument against doing that.