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Matt- The systems are great and they have been amazing! It is up to each of us to decide weather to take the trade or not.   They cannot all be winners, what is this Pleasantville? LOL!

You're right, permabears lose out in the long run. On the other hand, people who respect the data and history (like those who respect the trend) win out in the long run. Maybe this time is different but, in my view, the market bottoms only after unemployment rises and the FED cuts. 

Can the market remain irrational longer then I can remain solvent? We shall see:

Thought this was a typo...that's quite the miss 

Leading indicators are screaming recession (real estate peaked, manufacturing peaked, corporate earnings peaked). The final horseman is unemployment, and today's data showed continuing claims curve high. Long bonds & short stocks. 

Matt- I think there should

Posted by jackbnimble on 11th of May 2023 at 10:30 am

Matt- I think there should be extra upside to buying puts when the new, harder-to-trigger Volatility/Bollinger band systems go short. You profit from a move down and also from increased IV. Really excited to see where you take these 

Maybe don't start the largest war in  Europe since WW2? Russia did it to themselves, lol. What currency would you rather hold? Yuan? Ruble? Euro? Relative to others, our inflation is minor. Push come to shove; the sheer size of our economy, government, and our international trade volumes makes USD one of the safest places to store wealth.

Since we are above the 9sma does that mean no trade? 

Weird report. The topline figure beats by 70k, but they revised the last two month's report DOWN by 150k. Worth watching for another revision next month. Also, wages are up .5% MoM - bad for wage-driven inflation. If CPI comes high on the 10th, we might just see another 25bp hike.



VIX system likely to go

Posted by jackbnimble on 5th of May 2023 at 10:32 am

VIX system likely to go long today? 

Matt and Steve -- Do

Posted by jackbnimble on 4th of May 2023 at 08:40 am

Matt and Steve -- Do  you have 'avg time in trade' for the systems' 2nd and 3rd entries?

Powell really said "I think

Posted by jackbnimble on 3rd of May 2023 at 03:26 pm

Powell really said "I think this time could be different, despite history". You and every other FED chairman before the pop...

While hard to know because

Posted by jackbnimble on 2nd of May 2023 at 09:24 am

While hard to know because of the "creative accounting" at the treasury right now, the surprisingly early "X" date for debt default might imply lower tax receipts than expected. Could be an early indicator of worse-than-expected employment data. 

That is the conclusion I am seeing. It might at least be a good year to follow  "Sell in May and go away" 

The House Freedom Caucus has lots of power over McCarthy, so the most likely resolution that avoids a crisis is for the adults in the Senate (Rs and Ds alike) to negotiate a deal. That seems pretty likely, given Senate Rs don't have an HFC-like wing holding everything up and that many Senators are playing the long game (decades in office and/or a presidential run). It is worth noting that even after a successful albeit dramatic debt limit increase in 2011, our credit rating decreased, and SPY dropped 6.5% the next trading day 

Short opportunity?

Posted by jackbnimble on 28th of Apr 2023 at 03:38 pm

Short opportunity?


Nice! LOL! Thanks!

Hello BPT-   Where are

Posted by jackbnimble on 21st of Mar 2023 at 01:04 pm

Hello BPT-   Where are people parking cash between trades these days?  Money market funds like SPAXX? 

Thanks!

How is the fed gov't going to pay 3.5-4% on $30T of debt 😅

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