Posted by jackbnimble on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 04:46 pm
Matt- The systems are great and they have been amazing! It is up
to each of us to decide weather to take the trade or not.
They cannot all be winners, what is this Pleasantville? LOL!
Posted by jackbnimble on 18th of May 2023 at 12:51 pm
You're right, permabears lose out in the long run. On the other
hand, people who respect the data and history (like those who
respect the trend) win out in the long run. Maybe this time is
different but, in my view, the market bottoms only after
unemployment rises and the FED cuts.
Posted by jackbnimble on 11th of May 2023 at 11:27 am
Leading indicators are screaming recession (real estate peaked,
manufacturing peaked, corporate earnings peaked). The final
horseman is unemployment, and today's data showed continuing claims
curve high. Long bonds & short stocks.
Posted by jackbnimble on 11th of May 2023 at 10:30 am
Matt- I think there should be extra upside to buying puts when
the new, harder-to-trigger Volatility/Bollinger band systems go
short. You profit from a move down and also from increased IV.
Really excited to see where you take these
Posted by jackbnimble on 8th of May 2023 at 05:04 pm
Maybe don't start the largest war in Europe since WW2?
Russia did it to themselves, lol. What currency would you rather
hold? Yuan? Ruble? Euro? Relative to others, our inflation is
minor. Push come to shove; the sheer size of our economy,
government, and our international trade volumes makes USD one of
the safest places to store wealth.
Posted by jackbnimble on 5th of May 2023 at 11:40 am
Weird report. The topline figure beats by 70k, but they revised
the last two month's report DOWN by 150k. Worth watching for
another revision next month. Also, wages are up .5% MoM - bad for
wage-driven inflation. If CPI comes high on the 10th, we might just
see another 25bp hike.
Posted by jackbnimble on 2nd of May 2023 at 09:24 am
While hard to know because of the "creative accounting" at the
treasury right now, the surprisingly early "X" date for debt
default might imply lower tax receipts than expected. Could be an
early indicator of worse-than-expected employment data.
Posted by jackbnimble on 1st of May 2023 at 08:50 am
The House Freedom Caucus has lots of power over McCarthy, so the
most likely resolution that avoids a crisis is for the adults in
the Senate (Rs and Ds alike) to negotiate a deal. That seems pretty
likely, given Senate Rs don't have an HFC-like wing holding
everything up and that many Senators are playing the long game
(decades in office and/or a presidential run). It is worth noting
that even after a successful albeit dramatic debt limit increase in
2011, our credit rating decreased, and SPY dropped 6.5% the next
trading day
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Matt- The systems are great
When you break a major support zone/trendline, the reaction is ...
Posted by jackbnimble on 3rd of Oct 2023 at 04:46 pm
Matt- The systems are great and they have been amazing! It is up to each of us to decide weather to take the trade or not. They cannot all be winners, what is this Pleasantville? LOL!
You're right, permabears lose out
NQ futures 52 week high...Bears convinced yet ?
Posted by jackbnimble on 18th of May 2023 at 12:51 pm
You're right, permabears lose out in the long run. On the other hand, people who respect the data and history (like those who respect the trend) win out in the long run. Maybe this time is different but, in my view, the market bottoms only after unemployment rises and the FED cuts.
Can the market remain irrational
NQ futures 52 week high...Bears convinced yet ?
Posted by jackbnimble on 18th of May 2023 at 11:38 am
Can the market remain irrational longer then I can remain solvent? We shall see:
Thought this was a typo...that's
US Empire Manufacturing May: -31.8 (est -4.0; prev 10.8)New orders ...
Posted by jackbnimble on 15th of May 2023 at 10:02 am
Thought this was a typo...that's quite the miss
Leading indicators are screaming recession
AMZN follow up
Posted by jackbnimble on 11th of May 2023 at 11:27 am
Leading indicators are screaming recession (real estate peaked, manufacturing peaked, corporate earnings peaked). The final horseman is unemployment, and today's data showed continuing claims curve high. Long bonds & short stocks.
Matt- I think there should
Posted by jackbnimble on 11th of May 2023 at 10:30 am
Matt- I think there should be extra upside to buying puts when the new, harder-to-trigger Volatility/Bollinger band systems go short. You profit from a move down and also from increased IV. Really excited to see where you take these
Maybe don't start the largest
Lol - Yellen "The dollar is the ultimate safe asset..."Umm, ...
Posted by jackbnimble on 8th of May 2023 at 05:04 pm
Maybe don't start the largest war in Europe since WW2? Russia did it to themselves, lol. What currency would you rather hold? Yuan? Ruble? Euro? Relative to others, our inflation is minor. Push come to shove; the sheer size of our economy, government, and our international trade volumes makes USD one of the safest places to store wealth.
Since we are above the
VIX system likely to go long today?
Posted by jackbnimble on 5th of May 2023 at 03:58 pm
Since we are above the 9sma does that mean no trade?
Weird report. The topline figure
Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) 253K vs 180K Est.
Posted by jackbnimble on 5th of May 2023 at 11:40 am
Weird report. The topline figure beats by 70k, but they revised the last two month's report DOWN by 150k. Worth watching for another revision next month. Also, wages are up .5% MoM - bad for wage-driven inflation. If CPI comes high on the 10th, we might just see another 25bp hike.
VIX system likely to go
Posted by jackbnimble on 5th of May 2023 at 10:32 am
VIX system likely to go long today?
Matt and Steve -- Do
Posted by jackbnimble on 4th of May 2023 at 08:40 am
Matt and Steve -- Do you have 'avg time in trade' for the systems' 2nd and 3rd entries?
Powell really said "I think
Posted by jackbnimble on 3rd of May 2023 at 03:26 pm
Powell really said "I think this time could be different, despite history". You and every other FED chairman before the pop...
While hard to know because
Posted by jackbnimble on 2nd of May 2023 at 09:24 am
While hard to know because of the "creative accounting" at the treasury right now, the surprisingly early "X" date for debt default might imply lower tax receipts than expected. Could be an early indicator of worse-than-expected employment data.
That is the conclusion I
Excellent newsletter, Steve. Easy to follow commentary. I'm wondering if ...
Posted by jackbnimble on 1st of May 2023 at 10:39 am
That is the conclusion I am seeing. It might at least be a good year to follow "Sell in May and go away"
The House Freedom Caucus has
Excellent newsletter, Steve. Easy to follow commentary. I'm wondering if ...
Posted by jackbnimble on 1st of May 2023 at 08:50 am
The House Freedom Caucus has lots of power over McCarthy, so the most likely resolution that avoids a crisis is for the adults in the Senate (Rs and Ds alike) to negotiate a deal. That seems pretty likely, given Senate Rs don't have an HFC-like wing holding everything up and that many Senators are playing the long game (decades in office and/or a presidential run). It is worth noting that even after a successful albeit dramatic debt limit increase in 2011, our credit rating decreased, and SPY dropped 6.5% the next trading day
Short opportunity?
Posted by jackbnimble on 28th of Apr 2023 at 03:38 pm
Short opportunity?
Nice! LOL! Thanks!
Hello BPT- Where are people parking cash between trades ...
Posted by jackbnimble on 21st of Mar 2023 at 05:28 pm
Nice! LOL! Thanks!
Thanks!
Hello BPT- Where are people parking cash between trades ...
Posted by jackbnimble on 21st of Mar 2023 at 04:46 pm
Thanks!
Hello BPT- Where are
Posted by jackbnimble on 21st of Mar 2023 at 01:04 pm
Hello BPT- Where are people parking cash between trades these days? Money market funds like SPAXX?
Thanks!
How is the fed gov't
Simply thinking to myself - the bigger question is how ...
Posted by jackbnimble on 13th of Sep 2022 at 09:32 am
How is the fed gov't going to pay 3.5-4% on $30T of debt 😅