The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.

ok thanks for info. that helps. and thanks for your kind words as well.

Hi, I have been unable

Posted by curranjohn on 19th of May 2023 at 09:31 am

Hi, I have been unable to trade for the last couple of months while waiting for some legal issue to resolve. That is behind me and I would now like to use your systems .  I am looking at the STS systems for trades that can potentially generate income on a weeks to months basis.  I can't trade during the day (too distracting from work).

It would seem that a basket of these STS sytems might be the most suitable approach for my needs https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/sts.php?chart_group=BPT_basket

Have you done any videos on these systems? I am sorry if I am missing something. Also, I searched the texts alerts for STS but didn't see anything.  If you can point me to any further info about these systems that's be great. I can pick a few and just track them on your site as well of course. I am just eager to get all the details I can.

Thank you.


You are not considering the

M2 money supply

Posted by curranjohn on 3rd of May 2023 at 08:36 am

You are not considering the fact the post covid money supply has already had its impact. It has created malinvestment bubbles that will lead to dislocation and failure.  The bigger the post covid rise in m2 the greater the risk associated with contraction. Steve is right. The rate of change is what matters.

understood. Thanks. I need to stick to swing trading, and appropriate position sizing to endure the chop, or catch reversals.  I experimented with the shorter duration trades (with small $$) and now recognize I just can't give it the required focus.  Back to what works for me.

Understood. thanks. I prepare for my swing trades. But I just needed to get clearer on expectations on the alerts.  Sorry I missed out on available information.  I am sure I read it in the past and just forgot. :-) Anyways, I took small trades on those alerts just to force myself to understand them better, realized I was doing it wrong,   asked my question in the forum, and heard what i needed to hear. I need to stick to my properly planned swing trades and let the alerts help me there when there is alignment. I will get better!

thanks. I learned something today. Appreciate it.  

Nice move. missed that.  Would

LTHM Updated View

Posted by curranjohn on 15th of Feb 2023 at 10:35 am

Nice move. missed that.  Would you sell some here? If it pulled back to the trendline would you buy? Or would you already be out and no longer looking at it?

Thanks for feedback.  I liked the longs as overall the market seems to be an uptrend despite the ups and down on the short term.  But I guess I should indeed be looking to capture small gains on an initial move  (which are typically tiny in my experience) and then sell the rest at a trendline reversaL   Unfortunately I have to work my job during the day so maybe the simple fact is that the alerts aren't appropriate for me as I can't be glued to the chair. 

Hey all, I am just

Posted by curranjohn on 15th of Feb 2023 at 09:49 am

Hey all, I am just curious how folks handle these trade alerts.  I tried my hand at the scco short and xlv, weat and oih longs. But they all reversed above or below trend lines. Before I cover my losses I am just curious if everybody simply sells the reversals.  I go though phases where I try these breakouts but I just keep losing 1-3% every time. Am I doing somehting wrong? I have tried before and just a few times in the past but I just keep losing small amounts. I know the trades are supposed to have a high success rate (and I try to buy the breakout as close to the alert as possible).

I do pretty good in longer term swing trades buying the dips for example. But I have absolutely no success with breakouts.  What am I missing? I have zero confidence with breakouts. 

You are correct. I was wrong. Memory failed me. I was trying to game them on 9 ema pullbacks and support lines. I have a lot to learn.  My apologies for saying that.

ya. by two cents on the daily. I am long but man. the widow maker is taking it's time here. C'mon baby. One last push.

I bought BITF, PTON and QUOT on the alerts yesterday. Each one punched me in the mouth. I dumped them.

BPT was monitoring this UNG

Posted by curranjohn on 10th of Feb 2023 at 10:06 am

BPT was monitoring this UNG trendline before.  It finally nosed it's way through. https://schrts.co/qEZJCxXj 

I have been building a position recently.  A pop through the 9 ema could become explosive.  I subscribe to another trader names Ross Clark whose exhaustion calls based on history are remarkable. He is saying his natgas downtrend exhaustion signal is equivalent to seven others in the last 30 years. all of which had major reversals.

yes. the most obvious trendline in the stockmarket. I am short but that thing is begging to be pierced and trigger short squeezes. I will add to shorts there.

The masses are hoping for

CPI Projections

Posted by curranjohn on 11th of Jan 2023 at 06:15 pm

The masses are hoping for a fed pivot. Yet there is no indication whatsoever that this could happen. Still they hope. If PPI comes in below expectations then  market goes up thinking inflation is declining and fed can stop increasing rates.  If PPI comes in hotter than expected then fed needs to keep tightening. Market goes down. 

GOLD also posted a daily and weekly demark sequential nine sell today.  I am looking to add around the 20/50 week EMA confluence. The first leg up in gold is likely over.

So many people watching this obvious trend line. 

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p94945487399&a=1327345144

I am bearish given the macro env and how these environments play out historically. But my shorts are light here. If CPI comes in a tick lower than expectations then the delusional folks who think this means fed rate cuts will power the index up. I imagine that trend line will get pierced by the short coverers. I will short heavy there. I sure as hell hope that plays out.



So the big tech companies have historic levels of deep in the money puts. They are being "arbitraged" he says. I am not sure I quite understand what he means exactly. I think of arbitraging as profiting on spreads. He says there are equal numbers of buyers and sellers and thus this is not a big deal (if I understand correctly).  In plain english, what is he saying exactly? That there are simply lots of puts being sold but there are tons of buyers so all is well?  Doesn't the put to call ratio still indicate extreme fear? And cold be considered a contrarian long signal?


everything tech is so oversold. Demark signals flashing on daily and weekly. But these put to call ratios show such extreme fear it surprises me.  The contrarian in me says rally.  But wow.

Newsletter

Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!