Yes, the media has no footing. I will humbly put forth that I
was fortunate to figure out that Brexit could pass and Trump could
win ahead of each event. My certainty of 0% on an Electoral College
disruption is based on understanding who the electors are.
The fed follows markets rather than leads them. The election
finally got the market moving to the point where they can play
catch-up. It's ridiculous, but that's the way it is.
Reiterate that market is priced like pre-Brexit - asymetrically
for one outcome. Having some hedges against that outcome probably
won't hurt much even if wrong and will pay nicely if right.
We had a Chrysler New Yorker, built like a tank, when I was a
kid. A moderately sized doe hit the driver's door at full speed,
rolled over the windshield and kept running, leaving a 3' x 1' x 9"
(deep) dent. Like a sledgehammer.
"
Today, the official figure for non-performing bank loans in the
eurozone is 1 trillion euros, though we suspect that the actual
figure is considerably higher." - Christopher Whalen
I have a friend who was scheduled for a meeting on an upper
floor on 9/11. The other party had double-booked and asked him to
reschedule. After 9/11 he and his family moved to LA, basically out
of survivor guilt.
FYI: COT non-commercials already long Russell futures at nearly
3 standard deviations on a 1 year basis and nearly 2 STD on a 3
year basis. Extremely stretched on a positioning basis.
Not in it at this point, but what a ride for Root9b - down 40%
in a week on results and then up over 30% in the last hour on a
press release announcing a strategic shift to pure play
cybersecurity.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Yes, the media has no
PM's will go through the roof if vote contested
Posted by a_l_ on 16th of Dec 2016 at 03:33 pm
Yes, the media has no footing. I will humbly put forth that I was fortunate to figure out that Brexit could pass and Trump could win ahead of each event. My certainty of 0% on an Electoral College disruption is based on understanding who the electors are.
Correct. Absurd ploy with 0%
PM's will go through the roof if vote contested
Posted by a_l_ on 16th of Dec 2016 at 03:16 pm
Correct. Absurd ploy with 0% odds.
The fed follows markets rather
Dec Rate Hike
Posted by a_l_ on 22nd of Nov 2016 at 11:23 am
The fed follows markets rather than leads them. The election finally got the market moving to the point where they can play catch-up. It's ridiculous, but that's the way it is.
"Ship happens" - Tim Knight
DRYS
Posted by a_l_ on 17th of Nov 2016 at 05:05 pm
"Ship happens" - Tim Knight
Probably asking about the carrying
general technical question
Posted by a_l_ on 10th of Nov 2016 at 09:45 am
Probably asking about the carrying cost each quarter.
Hope somebody besides myself acted
Reiterate that market is priced like pre-Brexit - asymetrically for ...
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Nov 2016 at 11:58 pm
Hope somebody besides myself acted on this.
[not talking about buying puts
Reiterate that market is priced like pre-Brexit - asymetrically for ...
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Nov 2016 at 03:29 pm
[not talking about buying puts at elevated IVs]
Reiterate that market is priced
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Nov 2016 at 03:24 pm
Reiterate that market is priced like pre-Brexit - asymetrically for one outcome. Having some hedges against that outcome probably won't hurt much even if wrong and will pay nicely if right.
We had a Chrysler New
Unreal!
Posted by a_l_ on 7th of Nov 2016 at 10:45 pm
We had a Chrysler New Yorker, built like a tank, when I was a kid. A moderately sized doe hit the driver's door at full speed, rolled over the windshield and kept running, leaving a 3' x 1' x 9" (deep) dent. Like a sledgehammer.
Like Brexit 2. Not a
Comey Clears Hillary again
Posted by a_l_ on 6th of Nov 2016 at 07:17 pm
Like Brexit 2. Not a prediction because who the heck knows, but there are more signs of it in this contest than that one.
A reliable low-end estimate on
Deutsche Bank has the world’s largest so-called derivatives book—its portfolio ...
Posted by a_l_ on 29th of Sep 2016 at 11:09 pm
A reliable low-end estimate on all derivatives is $630 Trillion; high-end $1.2 Quadrillion. Nobody -- truly nobody -- knows.
" Today, the official figure for
Guys regarding the SPY system
Posted by a_l_ on 29th of Sep 2016 at 04:42 pm
" Today, the official figure for non-performing bank loans in the eurozone is 1 trillion euros, though we suspect that the actual figure is considerably higher." - Christopher Whalen
Would not be complacent on the DB rumors.
Best OPEC line: "OPEC hopes
Posted by a_l_ on 29th of Sep 2016 at 10:47 am
Best OPEC line: "OPEC hopes the market will view that a deal to agree to a deal in the future is a deal." Let's agree to agree that we will agree.
There is no deal. Just
OVX USO trade
Posted by a_l_ on 28th of Sep 2016 at 08:03 pm
There is no deal. Just talk.
For fed yadda-yadda day
Posted by a_l_ on 28th of Sep 2016 at 10:11 am
For fed yadda-yadda day
Or she's getting paid by
Posted by a_l_ on 15th of Sep 2016 at 08:12 pm
Or she's getting paid by all of the traders fading his every move.
I have a friend who
15th 9-11 Anniversary
Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Sep 2016 at 05:55 pm
I have a friend who was scheduled for a meeting on an upper floor on 9/11. The other party had double-booked and asked him to reschedule. After 9/11 he and his family moved to LA, basically out of survivor guilt.
FYI: COT non-commercials already long
Leuthold RUT BUY signal
Posted by a_l_ on 31st of Aug 2016 at 10:56 am
FYI: COT non-commercials already long Russell futures at nearly 3 standard deviations on a 1 year basis and nearly 2 STD on a 3 year basis. Extremely stretched on a positioning basis.
Not in it at this
Posted by a_l_ on 22nd of Aug 2016 at 04:51 pm
Not in it at this point, but what a ride for Root9b - down 40% in a week on results and then up over 30% in the last hour on a press release announcing a strategic shift to pure play cybersecurity.
Absolutely. Really appreciate that framework
Important: Applies to Successful Trading/Investing (or any endeavor)
Posted by a_l_ on 21st of Aug 2016 at 02:25 pm
Absolutely. Really appreciate that framework and your combined efforts.