Table of Contents:
SPY and ES Systems Discussion: Taking trades from both the SPY and ES systems using options. Statistics such as historical gains, number of trades, capital needed, utilization and draw down. Differences between ES and SPY options. Hedge Fund etc
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Regarding the General Market clearly no major changes, the trend remains strongly to the upside. Otherwise in the short-term note that earnings season is winding down, which has histrionically pushed the market higher and we've have seen that this time as well. Also the VIX is near it's lower Bollinger Bands which has historically offered support. Lastly the sentiment is getting a bit one sided with the CNN Greed/Fear Index at 91%, which is quite extreme
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1. Glance at last Week Stats, Upcoming Economic Table, Earnings Release Dates
2. Review of the Major Indexes/Indicators
3. Examine All Sector Charts
4. Commodities (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, DBA)
5. Quick Overview of Bonds via TLT/TNX and HYG
6. Currencies (US Dollar, Euro) and Bitcoin/GBTC
7. Precious Metals (Gold/Silver) and GDX/GDXJ (we've been spot on Precious Metals). We were bullish in May, June, July but became bearish in Aug and early Sep. We have constantly pointed out the imbalances in the COT data via the Commercials and Large Speculators and how this needs to be worked off before we can see sustainable rally and so far that's been the case!
Major Indexes | Index Symbol | ETF Symbol | % G / L Day | % G / L Week | Close |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dow Jones | INDU - W | DIA - W | 0.02% | 1.22% | 27,681.24 |
S&P 500 | SPX - W | SPY - W | 0.26% | 0.85% | 3,093.08 |
Wilshire 5000 | WLSH - W | 0.28% | 0.76% | 31,504.52 | |
Nasdaq | COMPQ - W | 0.48% | 1.06% | 8,475.31 | |
NDX 100 | NDX - W | QQQ - W | 0.44% | 1.16% | 8,255.89 |
Russel 2000 (Small Caps) | IWM - W | 0.27% | 0.62% | 159.08 |
Market Sectors | Index Symbol | ETF Symbol | % G / L Day | % G / L Week | Close |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Transports | TRAN - W | IYT - W | -0.22% | 3.06% | 11,067.16 |
Banks | BKX - W | 0.14% | 3.71% | 109.72 | |
Financials | XLF - W | -0.03% | 2.47% | 29.84 | |
Brokers | XBD - W | -0.04% | 1.94% | 274.19 | |
XLE (Energy Select) | XLE - W | -0.41% | 2.38% | 60.69 | |
Oil Service Holders | OIH - W | 0.67% | 3.33% | 12.10 | |
Technology | XLK - W | 0.56% | 1.71% | 86.12 | |
Semiconductor | SOX - W | SMH - W | 0.53% | 2.77% | 1,736.78 |
Communication Services | XLC - W | 0.27% | 1.14% | 51.53 | |
Retail | XRT - W | -0.51% | 1.81% | 44.47 | |
Consumer Staples | XLP - W | -0.07% | -0.64% | 60.76 | |
Consumer Discretionary | XLY - W | 0.04% | -0.25% | 121.34 | |
Industrials | XLI - W | 0.13% | 1.92% | 81.76 | |
Real Estate | IYR - W | -0.19% | -3.22% | 91.16 | |
Homebuilders | HGX - W | XHB - W | 0.31% | -2.77% | 347.92 |
Materials | XLB - W | 0.40% | 1.97% | 60.17 | |
Metals And Mining | XME - W | 0.62% | 1.88% | 27.64 | |
GDX Gold Miners ETF | GDX - W | -0.98% | -6.35% | 26.23 | |
Biotechnology | BTK - W | XBI - W | 2.73% | 1.23% | 4,582.68 |
Healthcare | XLV - W | 0.73% | 0.27% | 95.13 | |
Drugs | DRG - W | 1.13% | 0.00% | 607.73 | |
Utilities | UTIL - W | XLU - W | -0.36% | -3.75% | 835.30 |
Currencies | Index Symbol | ETF Symbol | % G / L Day | % G / L Week | Close |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
US Dollar | UUP - W | 0.22% | 1.20% | 26.90 | |
Euro | XEU - W | FXE - W | -0.28% | -1.32% | 110.19 |
Yen | XJY - W | FXY - W | 0.10% | -0.93% | 91.57 |
Australian | XAD - W | FXA - W | -0.57% | -0.72% | 68.57 |
British Pound | XBP - W | FXB - W | -0.33% | -1.24% | 127.75 |
Chinese Yuan | CYB - W | -0.26% | 0.59% | 25.42 | |
Canadian Dollar | CDW - W | FXC - W | -0.40% | -0.55% | 75.60 |
Swiss Franc | XSF - W | FXF - W | -0.26% | -1.11% | 100.24 |
Commodities | Index Symbol | ETF Symbol | % G / L Day | % G / L Week | Close |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commodities | DBC - W | 0.26% | 0.00% | 15.61 | |
Crude Oil | WTIC - W | USO - W | 0.16% | 1.85% | 57.24 |
Gasoline | GASO - W | -0.11% | -1.33% | 1.63 | |
Natural Gas | NATGAS - W | UNG - W | 0.61% | 2.76% | 2.79 |
Copper | COPPER - W | JJCB - W | -1.67% | 1.09% | 2.68 |
Agriculture | DBA - W | 0.25% | 0.31% | 16.12 | |
Corn | CORN - W | CORN - W | 0.53% | -3.08% | 377.25 |
Wheat | WHEAT - W | WEAT - W | -0.44% | -1.11% | 510.25 |
Coffee | JO - W | -0.69% | 4.39% | 36.11 | |
Sugar | CANE - W | 1.07% | 0.30% | 6.63 |
Precious Metals | Index Symbol | ETF Symbol | % G / L Day | % G / L Week | Close |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gold Metal | GLD - W | -0.64% | -3.63% | 137.39 | |
Silver | SLV - W | -1.88% | -7.21% | 15.70 | |
Platinum | PPLT - W | -2.45% | -6.57% | 83.62 | |
Palladium | PALL - W | -3.21% | -3.53% | 164.30 | |
GDX Gold Miners ETF | GDX - W | -0.98% | -6.35% | 26.23 |
Bonds | Index Symbol | ETF Symbol | % G / L Day | % G / L Week | Close |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Yield Corporate Bond | HYG - W | 0.09% | 0.03% | 86.85 | |
TLT 20 Year Bond ETF | TLT - W | -0.42% | -4.02% | 134.91 | |
10 Year Treasury Yield | TNX - W | 0.36% | 11.86% | 19.33 | |
30 Year Treasury Yield | TYX - W | 0.58% | 9.27% | 24.17 |
Release | ET | For | Trading Impact | Forecast | Consensus | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 12 | ||||||
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | 06:00 | Oct | Low | NA | NA | 101.8 |
Nov 13 | ||||||
MBA Mortgage Applications Index | 07:00 | 11/09 | Low | NA | NA | -0.1% |
CPI | 08:30 | Oct | High | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Core CPI | 08:30 | Oct | High | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
EIA Crude Oil Inventories | 10:30 | 11/09 | High | NA | NA | +7.2M |
Treasury Budget | 14:00 | Oct | Low | NA | NA | -$63.2B |
Nov 14 | ||||||
PPI | 08:30 | Oct | Medium | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.3% |
Core PPI | 08:30 | Oct | Medium | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
Initial Claims | 08:30 | 11/09 | Low | 215K | 214K | 211K |
Continuing Claims | 08:30 | 11/02 | Low | NA | NA | 1689K |
EIA Natural Gas Inventories | 10:30 | 11/09 | Low | NA | NA | +34 bcf |
Nov 15 | ||||||
Retail Sales | 08:30 | Oct | High | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
Retail Sales ex-auto | 08:30 | Oct | High | 0.4% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
Empire State Manufacturing | 08:30 | Nov | Low | 3.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
Import Prices | 08:30 | Oct | Low | NA | NA | 0.2% |
Import Prices ex-oil | 08:30 | Oct | Low | NA | NA | -0.1% |
Export Prices | 08:30 | Oct | Low | NA | NA | -0.2% |
Export Prices ex-ag. | 08:30 | Oct | Low | NA | NA | -0.1% |
Industrial Production | 09:15 | Oct | Low | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
Capacity Utilization | 09:15 | Oct | Low | 77.0% | 77.1% | 77.5% |
Business Inventories | 10:00 | Sep | Low | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Stock Earnings Calender:
Click here for a list of Stocks that are reporting Earnings
**Generally we never hold a position into earnings since the risk/reward is too great