!PMOBUYALL - Chart Link-

!PMOBUYALL - Chart Link-

thanks, I haven't looked at that PMO in a while, but yet. was diverging with price with that sell off in PMO while SPX made a new high

ha ha, that's a bit late, the KISS index systems (SPY, QQQ) that went long last Friday said to PMOBUYALL, 'Hold My Beer'

Good morning. Happy Friday.

US futures fell initially on the PCE b ut have roared back, ES futures now up 3 points

The Asian/Pacificmarkets were mostly weak. South Korea did well, but Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle Eastare currently mostly up. The UK, France, Turkey, South Africa and Switzerland are up more than 1%, and Denmark, Finland, Norway, the Netherlands and Italy are also doing well. 

The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up slightly. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.

Stories/News from Seeking Alpha...

The Roaring Twenties?

Economic reports are continuing to pour in with a stellar GDP print on Thursday that energized the markets. The benchmark S&P 500 (SP500) notched its fifth consecutive record following the reading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) reached another all-time high. The Nasdaq (COMP.IND) also tacked on gains, but some tech sentiment was hurt after-hours on weak guidance from Intel (INTC) (see more below).

Quote: "People are getting ahead," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago. "Instead of contracting, the economy has continued to grow. They're seeing their fortunes improve, and I believe that if inflation stays low, they'll begin to regain their confidence in the economy. It's a good thing, reflective of strong, healthy spending and productivity improvements, and most likely not creating an inflationary challenge."

Speaking of inflation, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, known as the core personal consumption expenditures price index, will be published Friday at 8:30 AM ET. The measure is expected to have risen 0.2% in December from November, representing an increase of 3.0% Y/Y. That would mark another success for the central bank, which continues to get closer to its 2% goal despite fears of last-mile challenges. Any incoming data will also help guide monetary policymaking, with things looking bright for the economy on the horizon.

Know your onions: Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, sees a "Roaring 2020s" scenario as a base case, drawing parallels between the Spanish flu pandemic and COVID-19, while projecting the S&P 500 will reach 5,400 in 2024. "Our basic premise is that a chronic shortage of labor is forcing companies to use technological innovations to boost their productivity growth, which started to improve last year, according to the government's quarterly data. As a result, inflation remains subdued, while real GDP growth, real wage growth, and profit margins all get boosted. The Fed is likely to ease, but won't have to cut the federal funds rate by much. Stock investors do very well."

Bleak outlook

Intel's (INTC) significantly weaker-than-expected guidance overshadowed a continued rebound in PCs, dragging its stock down 11% in extended trade on Thursday. The company expects Q1 revenue to be $12.2B-$13.2B, well below the $14.3B analysts were anticipating, and guided for adjusted EPS of $0.13, compared to a consensus of $0.42. "While we expect a slightly sub-seasonal Q1 from our core product businesses, we see material inventory corrections in Mobileye and PSG," CFO David Zinsner said on an earnings call. Investing Group Leader Quad 7 Capital called the guidance "painful," saying it stemmed from pressures in data center and AI. "While this segment is the source of massive future growth, the market may have gotten ahead of itself bidding shares up." (78 comments)

Houthi hostilities

Chinese officials have reportedly called on their Iranian counterparts to help end Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea or risk harming business ties between the two countries. Note that China is the biggest trading partner of Iran, which has been the biggest backer of the Houthis and the so-called "Axis of Resistance." U.S. and U.K. retaliatory military strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen have so far failed to deter the group from targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea, which have been ongoing since mid-November. The Houthis had originally said they would target Israeli-linked ships to show solidarity with Hamas, but that extended to all ships en route to Israel, and then widened to other vessels regardless of its destination. (1 comment)

Digital dilemmas

The Florida House of Representatives this week passed bipartisan legislation that bans minors under the age of 16 from creating social media accounts, and requires platforms to terminate minors' existing profiles and verify account holders' ages. "Social media use correlates with increasing mental health challenges among children," declared Florida House Speaker Paul Renner, adding that the bill would "prevent this from happening to another generation." Note that the legislation would not apply to websites used for email, messaging, and online shopping, likely causing confusion over which companies need to comply with the law. Other U.S. states have tried to limit social media access for minors, but their efforts have been blocked by lawsuits. (30 comments)

Today's Economic Calendar

8:30 Personal Income and Outlays

10:00 Pending Home Sales

1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count

Other News

- Tesla (TSLA) spins lower after earnings - now down 27% in 2024.
- Apple (AAPL) unveils biggest changes to iOS, App Store since launch.
- Microsoft (MSFT) to lay off 1,900 Activision Blizzard, Xbox employees.
- Payment volume at Visa (V) misses, expense guidance increases.
- Jamie Dimon shakes up top JPMorgan (JPM) executive leadership.
- Boeing’s (BA) situation 'not tenable,' Bank of America says in downgrade.
- GM's (GM) Cruise takes the blame for response to October accident.
- Levi Strauss (LEVI) to cut workforce by up to 15%, posts mixed results.
- Paramount (PARA) records strong gain as layoffs, merger talk make news.

yes the PMO system went on a sell

hope you had a good trip.  Yes the PMO fell below that sell signal. probably something to do with the horrible breadth of the market

The Asian/Pacificmarkets were mixed. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines did well; China, Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle Eastare currently mixed and little changed. Turkey, the UAE, Israel and Saudi Arabia are up; Hungary and Portugal are down. Futures in the Statespoint towards a positive open for the cash market.

The dollar is up. Oil is flat; copper is up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up.

Shotgun wedding

UBS (NYSE:UBS) may be voicing some regrets over its rushed deal to acquire Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) during the height of the banking crisis in March. While many of the disclaimers in a new regulatory filing may be worrisome, UBS shares hardly moved on the developments, seemingly due to some fine print at the bottom of the document. Helping it absorb billions of dollars in losses, the Swiss bank currently expects to record a one-off gain - due to so-called "negative goodwill" of $34.8B - by buying Credit Suisse for a fraction of its longtime rival's book value. Elsewhere, Jamie Dimon said it was "unlikely" JPMorgan (JPM) would acquire another troubled lender after buying First Republic Bank (OTCPK:FRCB) in a government-orchestrated deal earlier this month. (8 comments)

First hearing on AI

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman testified before Congress yesterday, emphasizing the need for regulatory intervention by governments to mitigate the risks of increasingly powerful artificial intelligence models. "As this technology advances, we understand that people are anxious that it could change the way we live," he declared. "We are too, but we believe that we can and must work together to manage the potential downsides, so that we can all enjoy the tremendous upsides." While lawmakers didn't arrive at any specific proposals, several ideas were brought up such as a combination of licensing and testing requirements or other frameworks. During the session on Capitol Hill, AI drama also broke into the open as Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella replied to an allegation by Elon Musk that the tech giant "has a very strong say, if not directly controls, OpenAI at this point." (1 comment)

Today's Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Housing Starts and Permits
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $15B, 20-Year Bond Auction

Other headlines

Biden plans to cut Asia trip short to get back to debt ceiling talks.

FTC files suit to block Amgen (AMGN)-Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP) deal.

Pfizer (PFE) bond offering said to be among the largest on record.

Investors pile into Super Micro Computer (SMCI) on heavy volume.

Report: Manchester United (MANU) shares pop on improved Qatari bid.

Biden vetoes legislation that would block solar tariff pause.

Mountain Valley Pipeline (ETRN) wins key federal permit approval.

AT&T (T) calls managers back in, but shrinks office footprint.

Is it a buy? UPS could have a rocky summer with Teamsters showdown.

Tesla's (TSLA) Musk talks rough economy, advertising and new models.

$BPSPX - Chart Link the BPSPX also did the same thing as the PMO, went on a sell signal a week early as price pushed one more time before dumping

!PMOBUYALL - Chart Link that sell signal was a bit early but eventually kicked in. You see this from time time time; notice this happened in December when the PMO went on a sell signal and price rallied to form a double top before dumping. It also happened back in April last year

$SPXADP - Chart Link- that gave nice warning last week

$SPX - Chart Link- the NYMO histogram went negative on Friday, that signal has been good as you can see from the past

!PMOBUYALL - Chart Link- went on sell signal yesterday

!PMOBUYALL - Chart Link- this one should pop up a lot today, was already on a buy signal

NYMO Short Term - Chart Link- we still have that divergence here for now, but again 'bulls' need to intercept the football otherwise it could break down

!PMOBUYALL - Chart Link- haven't shown this one in a while

!PMOBUYALL - Chart Link here's the chart URL

no actually I consider a buy signal early like Tuesday on the solid strong candle up day vs waiting for the laggy PMO to finally move its ass - that's been part of my rules for a long time, when the PMO is at zero but price is oversold and you get a solid strong up day, you can consider going long early, see the rules on the chart - been there for a few years

anyway the situation you have now kind of reminds me like what teh indicator did in early Feb when where the PMO finally rallied off zero but the market had rallied to new highs - then the market rallied further and some some sort of wave 3 or 5 a few weeks later before another correction

my point is when the market is in an uptrend - and the market has pulled back and the PMO is at zero - waiting for the PMO to finally respond is just too darn late - that's why I added that large up candle rule because you are following price action vs only using a laggy indicator.  And I wouldn't bother using this for entries anyway, best to use your other triggers, it's why I rarely show this indicator

what? seems like a circular argument that doesn't tell you anything. it's the % of X that are on a PMO buy signal and 10 day EMA of the PMO. Okay but what is the PMO?

I don't know what that PMO is based on but may be a function of the market being led to new highs by only the generals a handful of large weighted stocks, with many small names not participating. But again you have to investigate to see how that is calculated

ALL INDEX % PMO Xover BUY Signals (!PMOBUYALL) - Chart Link-

funny I received an email on Monday from a member pointing out that the PMO looked very similar to how it did last Feb, and I told him he was right.

the only thing is clearly that was some sort of 5th wave high back then, I see the market more as a wave 3 high perhaps 

PMO is best in uptrending markets, If you have a solid candle here maybe you could use that and have stop at low. However where that indicator fails is downtrend markets. I'd stick to standard candle charts honestly at this time

JPMorgan has slashed its forecast for real annualized GDP growth in Q1 to -4.0%, followed by an even weaker -14.0% in Q2, far, far worse than Goldman's -5%.