The Asian/Pacificmarkets closed mostly up. Japan and China were weak, but Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines did great. Europe, Africa and the Middle Eastare currently up big. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, the UAE, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Sweden and Saudi Arabia are all participating. 

Futures in the Statespoint towards a positive open for the cash market.

Yesterday the VIX closed up with the SPX, which is notable in the short term. 

The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.

Stories/News from Seeking Alpha...

Dovish pivot

It finally looks like the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle has come to an end, as the central bank's policymakers signaled that more rate cuts could be in store next year than they had foreseen in September. The Federal Open Market Committee maintained its key policy rate at 5.25%-5.50%, as widely expected, but it still kept the door open for additional firming. Traders cheered the Fed's revised expectations, with all three benchmark indices ending around 1.4% higher each, while yields plummeted.

Dot plot: Fed officials now expect three rate cuts next year and four more in 2025, according to the Summary of Economic Projections. While the new projection implies fewer cuts than what the markets priced in, it means that the Fed is moving closer to easing. In the September median projections, policymakers had forecast one last rate hike for 2023, followed by two cuts in 2024. Most FOMC members expect the key rate to fall within the 4.25%-5.0% range next year.

Powell's speech: Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained cautious in the post-decision press conference, saying the Fed is "just at the beginning" of discussing policy easing. He noted that inflation is still elevated, although it has eased from its highs without a spike in unemployment. Powell reiterated that incoming data will determine the Fed's decision on how long it keeps rates restrictive. "He acknowledges that it is premature to declare victory, but this FOMC meeting gives off a strong sense of achievement," said Yimin Xu on behalf of Investing Group Leader Cestrian Capital Research.

SA commentary: "Despite the message of caution from the press conference, the Fed has clearly taken a dovish tone here," said SA analyst Jeremy LaKosh, adding that the economy needs to achieve significant disinflationary milestones over the next 12 months. Wolf Richter noted that the FOMC's statement toned down the chance of additional rate hikes, but left the door cracked open, "just in case." Meanwhile, ING Economic and Financial Analysis thinks the Fed will end up being more aggressive on rate cuts than both they and the market are currently expecting. (119 comments)

Autopilot recall

Tesla (TSLA) is recalling more than 2M vehicles after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration determined that its Autopilot driver-assistance system does not go far enough to keep drivers engaged. The recall follows an NHTSA investigation into a series of crashes involving Autopilot. The agency will keep the investigation open while it monitors the efficiency of Tesla's over-the-air software fixes. Wedbush believes Tesla's decision to make the requested software update could clear a path for broader acceptance. However, Investing Group Leader Jonathan Weber warned that the indirect costs of the recall, such as brand damage, could be significant. (155 comments)

FTC probe

Adobe (ADBE) shares fell around 7% in extended-hours trading on Wednesday after the Photoshop maker issued weaker-than-expected outlook for the coming year, despite its Q4 results topping estimates on account of strong performance in its Digital Media segment, particularly Creative Cloud. Adobe also disclosed that it was being probed by the Federal Trade Commission over its subscription practices. The company said its practices comply with the law and it is working with the government agency about a possible settlement or resolution on the matter. This could "involve significant monetary costs and could have a material impact on financial results," Adobe warned. (35 comments)

Dim outlook

Pfizer (PFE) shares reached a new 52-week low on Wednesday after the COVID-19 vaccine maker set its 2024 outlook below expectations, dragging its peers including Moderna (MRNA) and Novavax (NVAX), as well as its partner BioNTech (BNTX). Pfizer expects its revenue to reach $58.5B-$61.5B in 2024, which includes about $8B from its COVID treatments and a $3.1B contribution from newly-acquired Seagen (SGEN). While J.P. Morgan said the COVID sales forecast likely represents "a floor for 2024 sales," Investing Group Leader Stone Fox Capital said Pfizer "will no longer have a strong COVID profit machine to help repay debt from the Seagen deal." (184 comments)

Today's Economic Calendar

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Import/Export Prices
10:00 Business Inventories
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

What else is happening...

Apple (AAPL) notches new record closing high amid market rally.

Berkshire boosts Occidental (OXY) stake again after CrownRock deal.

Bitcoin erases week's losses as FASB rules may beef up adoption.

U.S. Steel (X) gains after getting multiple bids above $40 a share.

GM's (GM) Cruise shakes up management in effort to rebuild trust.

SEC now requires more Treasury trades to be centrally cleared.

Farfetch (FTCH) in talks with Apollo (APO) for emergency funding.

Can Alibaba (BABA) regain its crown as China's e-commerce king?

Etsy (ETSY) falls after announcing restructuring moves, job cuts.

Mattel's (MAT) American Girl is heading to the big screen.

Good morning. Happy Friday.

The Asian/Pacificmarkets suffered big losses. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines all posted moderate or big losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle Eastare currently getting hit hard. The UK, France, Turkey, Germany, the UAE, South Africa, Finland, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria and Sweden are down more than 1%. ES Futures in the Statespoint towards a moderate gap down open for the cash market; ES currently down 13 points

The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down.

Today's Economic Calendar
9:00 Fed's Harker: Economic Outlook
12:15 PM Fed's Mester's Speech
1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count

Jerome Powell: Uncertainties complicate Fed's job of reducing inflation.
Toyota (TM) inks deal with Tesla (TSLA) for NACS charging standard.
Crude rises as U.S. forces thwart attacks; purchases for SPR planned.
Longer-term yields power on, US10Y hits 5% for first time in 16 years.
U.S. and Europe still unable to reach steel deal, risking return of tariffs.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) exploring strategic options, including sale.
Deutsche Bank: U.S. cash outperforms major global fixed income assets.
Moody's: Israel's debt rating on review for downgrade as war escalates.
Seagen (SGEN) ticks higher as EU approves $43B sale to Pfizer (PFE).
Rite Aid investors to get $192.5M as Walgreens (WBA) settles buyout suit.

Stories/News from Seeking Alpha...

Graphite curbs

After choking exports of chipmaking metals gallium and germanium, China is stepping up its efforts to maintain its manufacturing dominance by restricting exports of graphite, a key material used in electric-vehicle batteries. Beijing's move comes just days after Washington unveiled new restrictions on AI chip exports to China.

Dig deeper: Beijing will require special export permits for three grades of graphite starting December 1, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs said. Temporary controls on five less sensitive graphite items used in industries such as steel, metallurgy, and chemicals were dropped. The new curbs are "conducive to ensuring the security and stability of the global supply chain, and conducive to better safeguarding national security and interests," the ministry said. It clarified that it was not targeting any particular country. Top buyers of graphite from China include the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and India.

Bigger picture: The U.S. has been targeting China's access to advanced technologies over national security concerns, with the Biden administration issuing rules in Sept. to regulate U.S. investments in China in semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies, and AI. Beijing has pushed back by leveraging its dominance over certain materials. To note, China is the world's top graphite producer and exporter. It also refines over 90% of the world's graphite into the anode material used in EV batteries - the largest component by weight in such batteries.

Ivan Lam, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, does not expect a major impact in the near term, as graphite exports haven't been completely banned. But he said the material's prices will likely increase due to supply and demand imbalances, including Russia - which was once a major graphite supplier. CLSA's Christopher Richter said it would be a "bold" step to cut the world off from graphite, as that would likely bring EVs to a halt everywhere and probably escalate tensions between China, the U.S. and Europe. (2 comments)

Outlook slashed

SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) plunged 21.2% postmarket on Thursday after slashing its outlook, citing "substantial unexpected cancellations and pushouts of existing backlog from European distributors" due to higher inventory and much slower installation rates. As a result, SolarEdge's Q3 earnings will come in below the low end of its prior guidance, with much lower revenue expected in Q4 amid inventory destocking. The outlook dragged other solar stocks, including Enphase Energy (ENPH) -13.6% and Sunrun (RUN) -6.9%. SA Quant previously flagged the risk of SolarEdge performing badly, while Investing Group Leader JR Research detailed why investors are better off staying on the sidelines. (117 comments)

Net neutrality

The Federal Communications Commission has launched a new pursuit to revise regulation of broadband providers, by advancing a proposed rule that would re-establish "net neutrality." This had been the FCC's approach from early 2015 until 2017, when it was repealed by Trump-era FCC chair Ajit Pai. Now, a Democratic majority at the agency is reversing that approach. Related stocks include Comcast (CMCSA), Charter Communications (CHTR), AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ). AT&T CEO John Stankey in an earnings call said the firm would participate in the process with the FCC constructively, but warned against taking early-1900s regulation and applying it against the internet. (28 comments)

Shelving phenylephrine

CVS Health (CVS) is pulling over-the-counter cold and cough medicines containing the controversial decongestant phenylephrine after a panel of FDA advisors last month agreed that the drug doesn't work. The move comes as CVS and other OTC drugmakers and retailers face mounting lawsuits related to the drug’s effectiveness. The lawsuits have named companies including CVS, Walgreens Boots (WBA), Kenvue (KVUE), and Walmart (WMT). The FDA has yet to formally order that medicines containing phenylephrine be removed from shelves, though it usually follows the advice of its advisory committees. Nasal sprays containing phenylephrine do not appear to be an issue. (34 comments)

arun - trend days, can employ a 10/15 min gap rule to check, also depends on volume and breadth. 

also trend days better when the gap is taking out a resistance area like a downtrend line or other trendline -but we are at new highs so that is not the case, anything goes here

$SPX - Chart Link note there's an open gap from June 21st at 3695

that bearish view in Red that I showed yesterday abcd with yesterday's rally as wave e might be playing out

I suggest seeing how the market reacts the first 15 - 20 min i.e. what is called the 15 min gap rule

well that obviously worked out well with my ES long last night off that doji. though as usual didn't do enough size - I need to be more aggressive. Otherwise what I'll be watching for after this open to see if it is a trend day for the cash market - 15 min gap rule etc - and that 3960 area

remember guys - use the search feature on the blog works well, just type in 15 min gap rule and you see tons of posts, here's the search link

https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/search/?search_terms=15+min+gap+rule&member_name=matt%2C&start_date=&end_date=

kind of sort of in TS.  Opening gaps are a lot about reading the tape. First off if there's an obvious trendline resistance on the chart and price gaps over that, those have potential to be breakaway gaps and tends to hold and get stronger, so first off always look to see if there was an important technical trendline there. next you can employ a 15/20 min gap rule, if it's a gap and go price should generally stay above the first 15/20 min low of the gap

$SPX - Chart Link - the moving average configuration continues to rule, note the pinching of the MA's this morning on the gap and this afternoon on that lower high bounce.

What about the symmetry break you might asK? it played out, remember on a symmetry break you expect a higher low, which we got! But sometimes all you get is that higher low and small bounce, then down again, and that's what happened. A break in symmetry doesn't guarantee that price will go back and take that high out (many times it does) but all that it guarantees is that you form a higher low, which we did today for a small bounce

Yes on days when the system is set to exit on the open, one thing I've talked about before is that you can see how the open goes, if it looks like it's gonna be a trend day, consider not selling the open and hold with a tight stop. 

When markets gap up you generally have a good idea pretty quickly if that gap is gonna hold or not.  One can apply a 15 min gap rule, if the lows during the first 15 min are not taken out, many times the gap holds.  So instead of just selling the open the market gaps up nicely consider not selling the open immediately and see how the tap is, if it looks good you can get a MUCH better price such as today how the market gap and continued to go higher.

$SPX - Chart Link - today has trend day potential, also follow a 15 - 20 min gap rule but so far gap is holding nicely

$TICK - Chart Link - 5 min with tick average for trend

Futures are up quite a bit with ES futures up about 17.  Gold is down nicely as well as gold stocks, Bonds are down.  ON the gap up in the cash market, use the 15 min gap rule to see if it will hold and become a trend day up or now

This Friday is options expiration. 

I will be missing the open, I have to talk my daughter to school as my wife is sick

R egarding the gap to see of it has legs, monitor a 15 min gap rule and tick tools will give a clue, for now has a flag look to it.  R1 on ES is resistance.  On the daily chart ES you can see that it is well above the 20 day MA and not too far from the 50 MA (in red), a target as I said last night could be the 50 MA up near 2100 on the cash

my thought is that the market probably pushes higher today in at trend day, ie. holds up today most of the day, has a flag look on the futures

US Futures are up decent, ES up about 15, testing the R1 pivot since about 6 am, for now has a bull flag look.  Of course futures are up about 32 points from the gap down lows of last night.  R egarding the gap to see of it has legs, monitor a 15 min gap rule and tick tools will give a clue, for now has a flag look to it.  R1 on ES is resistance.  On the daily chart ES you can see that it is well above the 20 day MA and not too far from the 50 MA (in red), a target as I said last night could be the 50 MA up near 2100 on the cash

Of course news with Greece, not only have they agreed to a third bailout (on Europe's terms), they have to put 50B euro of state assets in a trust to be sold off with the proceeds used to pay the debt. Other austerity measures have to go through parliament, which will be tough given the "no" vote in last weekend's referendum. The Greek stock market remains closed. 

Stock headlines from barchart.com...

Apple (AAPL +2.67%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Societe Generale.

AutoNation (AN +0.65%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Underweight' at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $70.

Brocade (BRCD +3.00%) was downgraded to 'Sector Perform' from 'Outperform' at RBC Capital.

Ingersoll-Rand (IR +0.47%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.

Murphy Oil (MUR -1.50%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.

Hologic (HOLX +1.98%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Evercore ISI.

Vornado (VNO +0.27%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs.

PepsiCo (PEP +1.01%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Positive' at Susquehanna.

Groupon (GRPN -1.22%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Macquarie.

ASM Research, an Accenture Federal Services company (ACN +1.05%) , has been awarded a $300 million contract from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

IMAX (IMAX +3.08%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at Piper Jaffray with a price target of $41.

STMicroelectronics (STM +4.97%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.

Mark Tompkins reported a 5.6% passive stake in Pieris Pharmaceuticals (PIRS +5.58%) .

ARRIS (ARRS +1.82%) lowered guidance on Q2 EPS view to 51 cents-55 cents from 53 cents-58 cents, below consensus of 56 cents.

Earnings and Economic Numbers from seekingalpha.com...

tick tools gives very low odds for a gap fill, now you can monitor 15 min gag rule.

my personal feeling is that we'll see the typical trend day where shorting is futile, price simply holds up for majority of day

my comments would be to monitor a 15 or 20 min gap rule.  You can search the blog for many examples of that, type 15 min gap rule.  I'll be looking for the typical trend day where price holds up and trends higher all day, again the 15 min gap rules is a good rule for that.  

trend dayswork the same way, the market gaps up and pushes higher until afternoon where you get a small pullback, but otherwise most of the day you can simply buy pullbacks.   Generally on a 5 min SPX the MACD will spend the day recycling back to zero and 60 Stochastic will stay above 80% all day or most of the day

disciple33- read my comments from before - yes the gap made it more difficult, however here's the way to look at it for now and in the future on these type of patterns going forward.

1. one could have bought the gap up this morning, I know it's hard to buy the gap psychologically, however patterns like these wedges do many times resolve with a gap up out of the pattern i.e. gap over the downtrend line.  So one could have bought the gap up and monitored the gap with a 15 min gap rule for a stop i.e. you can search the blog for 15 min gap rule to read up on it, but again I understand that's hard to do for most people

2. One could have started scaling into it yesterday, that's what I did, I was fine scaling into a partial position with a stop then adding to it later.  I was not here for the 1st hr of the day, thus I would not able to add on the morning gap, and I didn't have a full position, I bought only 1/3 position yesterday while TLT was inside the wedge.

3. Now that symmetry has been met - we can see what happens next i.e. if symmetry is broken we can buy the next higher low or watch for a RS of an inverse H&S

even though the SPY Pro and Ver 2 system exited on the open, since the marketed gapped down some I think it would have been prudent to personally see if the market could bounce from the gap to get a better price i..e see how the gap behaved vs just selling i.e. did it attempt to hold or just sell off i.e. employ a 15 min gap rule.  Otherwise the system did exit of course, but personally non system way that would have been a way to look at it

15  min  gap  rule:

Draw 2 horizontal lines; one at the lows and one at the highs of the first  15 - 20  min. If the market can stay above the  15  min high candle bar, the it is considered positive and the  gap could possibly hold up for the day , however if the market falls below the  15  min low, then the likelihood of the  gap fading increases greatly.  Realize that this is just a technique only and doesn't work all the time!

expressway- Yes if the 1597 - 1600 pivot is blown out then 1614 is the next pivot and so on.  Yesterday the SPX closed right on the 9 EMA and while there were some bearish signs yesterday, we needed to lose that, as long as the market or any stock is above its 9 EMA its obviously quite strong.  My comments were last night to look for a lower high as a lower risk short, but obviously today the market was strong all day and didn't provide that trigger unless you decided to take a short at the back test of the wedge patter (discussed below) but then you have the Jobs data to sit through.  and yes in answer to your question, the RUT and Tran are still weak.  Our simply rule is that if a big down candle is retraced more than 50% the next day, then odds favor more upside

The bear wedge patterns played out from yesterday and hit their initial targets where they have obviously bounced hard.  Currently the SPX is now back testing the broken wedge trendline which is resistance as you can see on this chart.  Stochastics are overbought - tomorrows Jobs numbers will likely create a gap in either direction

Otherwise the 60 min charts of the Russell 200 and Transports are a lot weaker and lagging, especially the RUT