I've shown some stats for some of these custom KISS systems: GDX 78 min, SPY 78 min, AAPL 1/2 day, QLD KISS

Right now I'm working on QQQ 78 min - that stats are unreal - once I have it complied I'll post,  but geez the numbers I'm seeing LOL

again these will be added to the KISS section in a new tab once I"m ready - and the website will be set to automatically send buy/sell signals for these systems. 

Even the faster 78 min systems do not have that many trades even though there's five 78 min bars in a day - on SPY 78 min the aveage number of trades per year is 7!  That's nothing, but yet it beats the paints off buy/hold with total profit and of course 1/7th the drawdown or less. 

I'm not sure how many of these custom KISS sysetms I'll be making. I'm planning to at least start with SPY, QQQ, GDX, I may add IWM, not sure about DIA. I may add a couple big name stocks like AAPL, I could do a sector or two as well. No need to dozens of them at first - I can add 5 of them at first, then add more of them over time

AMZN - Chart Link- bearish pattern playing out

META - Chart Link- breaking down

GOOGL - Chart Link- heading to 200 MA

NVDA - Chart Link- testing neckline again

AAPL - Chart Link- slightly below 200 MA

Market Comments: Last spring we made a predication that the market would likely hold up and rally throughout the summer into late July, then experience a correction in Aug/Sep and early October (per seasonality) and that's exactly what has unfolded with a strong correction in the SPX so far in a 3-wave pattern Aug/Set/Oct.

Since early October, the market had a nice oversold rally that lasted until the middle of the month, where the S&P 500 stalled at an open gap resistance and just shy of the underside of the 50 day MA. As of Friday 20th, the SPX has retraced basically all of those bounce gains. Last week the SPX lost -2.4%, Nasdaq -3.1%, IWN -2.25%. Gold rallied 2.7% (not surprising given what is going on in the world) however it likely has a major low in place. I'm long-term bullish on gold. The 10-Year yield last week tagged 5% and closed at 4.925% There is a potential negative divergence on TNX, which is one hope for the 'bulls'. 

What always bothered Steve and myselfis that the S&P 500 didn't test its 200 day MA on the selloff low into early October (call it superstition or just years of observing the markets, most of the time when price gets very close to a major MA like the 200 MA or some other major technical  level, it generally tags it). Well, that concern ended up proving out as the SPX tagged and closed below its 200 day MA on Friday! 

Last weekend Steve  said the onus is on the 'bulls', however they could not intercept the football and the indexes are now testing their early October lows. Last weekend Steve illustrated Leading Diagonal patternsand unless the SPX and QQQ bounce from here via a double bottom, those leading diagonals may end up playing out with  that 5th wave move lower. Consider the QQQ's that are still far above its 200 day MA, unlike the S&P 500 which is now below it; the QQQ's may also need to test or undercut its 200 day MA.

Big Picture: The market had a strong down year in 2022 bear market, and the QQQs in particular have had a nice rally in 2023 (largely because of 7 - 10 stocks very narrow breadth). The question remains now; did the bear market end in October 2022 or has this large retracement rally in 2023 simply been a large B-wave rally of a bear market?? We'll see... There's certainly enough factors to support a larger bear market (crazy unsustainable debt levels, declining earnings for companies, coming recession, mortgage rates at 8%, commercial real estate, China, still very rich evaluations in the stock market). 

Earnings Season: Some big earnings this week: MSFT/GOOGL on Monday, META on Tuesday, AMZN on Wednesday, AAPL is Nov 2nd

The next Fed meeting is the following week Nov 1st/2nd

Geo Political: Unfortunately this has been one of the catalysts to the market sell off over the last 2 weeks, and is still a major wild card. 

Interest Rates/Bonds, US Dollar, Geo Political are all potential catalysts

they are like the tables I've show UPRO 1/2 day or QQQ 1/2 day, AAPL, GDX, etc

it's overly complex - the KISS system for the KISS tables is an indicator,  that was added as default settings - it clearly has some slightly different settings than the chart I have for the KISS images. it's something we are aware of and have to sync to make them all the same

it will be resolved, just pointing out, it' s all pretty complex and remember we are not finished with that section. 

my goal is to add a tab for custom high powered KISS systems - the ones I've been showing for AAPL, GDX, UPRO stuff like that. 

corrected a typo, again great stats on that 1/2 day AAPL system

I complied the 1/2 day AAPL <KISS, you can compare it to the daily. 

Slight better stats: bigger total overall, less average drawdown with a lower max DD, actually less avg trades 3 per year vs 4 for the daily. Higher profit factor of 12.5 vs 8.3, and 70.8% winning trades vs 63.6% on the daily

I complied the stats, here's a custom version of the KISS system on a daily chart of AAPL compared to simple buy and hold. average of 4 trades per year. Avg drawdown is -5.5% vs -25.8% for buy and hold.

other stats: for the daily KISS: avg 4 trades per year, avg DD of -5.5%, 66 total trades, 64% winning trades (typical for trend following), avg time in trades is 64 days

AAPL - Chart Link always a stock to monitor because of its weighting 

AAPL/CRAPLE  strong this morning for now

AAPL - Chart Link- the short has been great, but be aware the 200 MA is close buy now, should be an area to attack some buyers. 

at the moment a potential doji forming

now sue AAPL to support RCS for Android

XLRE - Chart Link-

AAPL - Chart Link-

AA - Chart Link-

LPX - Chart Link-

FIVN - Chart Link-

BGFV - Chart Link-

my writeup for the weekend

Market Comments: Last spring we made a predication that the market would likely hold up and rally throughout the summer into late July, then experience a correction in Aug/Sep (per seasonality) and that's exactly what has unfolded. 

Currently on the markets as you know we were focused on coil patterns on the indexes and those all broke to the downside last week (did any of you act on those?). The options we were discussing were: 1. either a shallower wave 4 consolidation (least favored), 2. a standard 4th wave zig zag deeper pullback to the low 4300's to mid 4200's (which I have been favoring), or 3. a major top was put into place in late July. Given the fundamental backdrop, the unfathomable amount of debt, Interest rates at 5.5% now, 8% mortgage rates, also the market is not cheap evaluations are very high, and this has been the narrowest rally we've seen in our lifetimes - it's passible that we could have put in a major top in July and not push back to new highs. 

For a 4th wave scenario 'Bulls' need to keep the SPX above the point of recognition gap from early June at 4220), below that price would seriously start the favor that the highs are in and the next major rally will ultimately form a lower high.

With all that said - make sure you have an exit strategy that fits your risk tolerance and trading style. If that's the daily KISS systems, the major indexes (SPY, QQQ etc have been flat as their STS smart trailing stops were all hit). Also the big cap tech names that dominate the market (AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, MSFT, META, TSLA) - the KISS systems are also flat. The weekly SPX KISS has a wide STS stop at 4250 if that's what you are following. The point is, make sure you have some sort of exit strategy and plan in place. 

The market is quite oversold here in the short-term and could bounce from here, but oversold is not a buy signal, so anything can happen. The market ultimately is going to need some sort of catalyst to put in a good bottom, such as the US Dollar and the 10-Year Yield coming in. 

Mean reversion systems: While the KISS Trend Following systems are flat, Two of the sub systems out of 22 systems have 1st and 2nd entries on SPY and ES (Trend/Pullback and QE BTS). That's the natural of these mean reversion systems, they scale into pullbacks and are early at times. Should the market go lower we may see 3rd entries for these and possibly other sub systems start to trigger. 

Key Events for This Week:

1.Tuesday: Various housing data (FHFA housing price index, Case-Shiller home price index, new home sales, consumer confidence
2. Wednesday: Durable Orders/Goods ( POWELL SPEAKS at 4 pm EST the market close!!! )
3. Thursday: GDP 3rd Estimate, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Natural Gas Inventories
4. Friday: Adv Goods, Inventories, Personal Spending, PCE prices, Chicago PMI 

now go buy your new iphone 15 and, AAPL ultra watch, and Macbook

AAPL - Chart Link- some relative strength against the indexes at the moment anyway, but long term I'm expecting a down move at least to that 200 MA. One could probably be short with a stop above the 20 MA 

AAPL - Chart Link- 120 min shows price bounced off that support trendline

AAPL - Chart Link- would love a smash down to that 200 MA if shelf support is lost

AAPL - Chart Link- monthly chart - been discussing this the large monthly MACD Divergence, could set up a multi year top if it plays out. Watch the trendline on the RSI

AAPL - Chart Link- a logarithmic chart so that you can draw a long term trendline, could be a target over time on a good correction

AAPL - Chart Link- daily

AAPL - Chart Link- 2hr

AAPL - Chart Link- of course weak - you guys need to upgrade, get that new USB C, new iwatch, etc

AAPL - Chart Link- 120 min view

the AAPL volatility system went long on Friday. the last trade was meh so we'll see, the isheep can get excited about iphone 15 here and upgrade after 1 year - and yet say they are concerned with the environment when basically it's like a disposable  lighter - tons of ewaste