COT that is reported on Friday is as of Tuesday's data, so it should reflect Tuesday's big sell off

for those of you who monitor the COT data from time to time, if you have a Tradestation account, TS makes it very easy, just like you have your normal indicators that you can add to a chart like MACD, RSI etc, you can add the COT data as an indicator to a futures chart like GC or CL or whatever and it plots it for you. This makes it easy to see the history and correlations.

Here's a chart of the June Gold contract GCM16, notice the COT Net position indicator I plotted.  The green line is the non commercials (net difference of the longs and shorts) and the blue line is the net difference of the longs/shorts of the commercials (-295 which is what I showed on my gold chart last week).  

You'll notice how wide they are now.  Of course you'll also notice that non commercials are always opposite of the commercials, they get more long increasing their position as gold price goes higher while commercials decrease their position

anyway just thought I would share that for those of you who have a TS account, there's no need to use websites to look up that data and plot yourself, it's right in your TS and it plots for you

$GOLD - Chart Link - COT data out, new commercial net short was 5K!  

Anyway that data is as of Tues when gold was down for the week still, since then of course it's up nicely

of course today everything was way up except for energy

$GOLD - Chart Link - updated COT data came out today, normally comes out on Friday but was delayed due to holiday, new record low in the net short of 12K. 

$GOLD - Chart Link - updated COT, as you know gold topped when the commercial net short hit 166K, it has now fallen to 28K

$GOLD - Chart Link - COT data is out, the new commercial net short is 22K

the numbers are as of Tues, so in reality it's probably a little lower,

you can view the history of the last 12 years on the chart

or they go negative eventually and flip.  Prior to 2001, the commercial net short was not net short, it was the commercial net long.  They were always net long, that was a long bear market, so perhaps logical it would eventually go that way now where the commercial net position would eventually flip from always net short to net long.  anyway something to consider.  Anyway yes the COT data should obviously show a drop today when it's released.  

per your question, I made two charts from the TS COT data, TS displays the COT data in three lines, Net Position and futures and options for commercials.

as you can see on the Gold chart I've marked the major bottoms of the COT Net short via the arrows, its come down, but clearly there's a ledge here and it's been quite a bit lower, breaking that ledge would likely send it down to the 50K or lower range

on GC you can see it's coming down, could go lower of course. 

remember this is not a trigger, when it gets low, you look for a trigger off your candlestick chart, NOT this

I have not tracked Silver that much so I don't have a good history on it.  One needs to find  the historical COT data and plot it on an Excel graph to see the numbers.

though I think TS displays COT data on their futures charts so that can make it much easier to do

Also Torvix per your comments about this is a bear market and this is bottom picking, did I say there was a buy signal? no and if there was it would be short term

Normally the COT data comes out on Friday but was delayed due to holiday.  I as curious to see the Net Short for gold commercial futures as it's been declining, it's now fallen to 75K, that's getting pretty low now, of course in this bear market since 2011 it's been as low as 15, 19, 50, and 63K, however it historically if you look at my chart where I show the highs and lows going ball the back to 2003 you can see that you have to pay attention to it in this range, can go lower of course.

Again as I've stated before I don't use the combined report like a_l_ and others and I'm not saying that doesn't give you similar and very useful results, but I've used this for the past 13 years and I have a history of it as you can see from the chart to see where it typically bottoms and tops, I don't have that kind of info with the combined data or large speculators so that's why I don't want to start tracking that now

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/

No it wasn't, it was higher last week:

COT commercials were net short 42K this week on Tuesday.  

Last week Commercials were net short 62K, so that's a big drop of 20K

I have not been keeping track of the major high and lows to say what the extremes are

guys - price action and stock patterns are first and foremost.  As far as COT data it's only something to pay attention to when it's act extreme levels, see my weekly chart of gold i.e. where you see when it gets well below 100K, or over the last couple years it's been toppy around 150K, in the bull market it would get to 250K or higher.  Right now the net short is 100K on gold for the commercials, that's not an extreme high or low, so I don't even pay attention to it.  Follow price action, trendlines, patterns, indicators i.e. technical analysis - again the COT data is only something to pay attention to at extremes and even then it's not my price trigger.

a_l_ - No, it's commercials only.  I don't care what the large speculators are doing, tells you exactly the same thing just in mirror opposite, I simply subtract the commercial long from short.  Large Speculators get more long as price goes higher while commercials add to their shorts, the reverse is true when gold falls, large speculators decrease their longs while commercials increase them

here's the COT data I use, I only subtract the commercial long from short.  I know what you are saying that non commercials are a larger market, however I don't really care, I think you get the same conclusions regardless.  I also don't care about the options. 

I've been tracking that since 2002, it used to be quite useful when gold was in a bull market from 2001 - 2011, especially prior to 2009, every time the commercial net short fell below 100K, you went long, was like clockwork.  

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm

exactly only use the COT and net short at extremes, other than that I don't care about it.  

the point about the commercials vs non commercials, honestly to me it tells you the same thing.  While commercials tend to be the most short at highs, at the same time the non commercials are the most long at highs.  So you can use them reversibly IMO

That warning on the crash indicator looking pretty good, that occurred at a price of SPX 2106, so was pretty timely

on the weekly chart, the indicator occurs on Monday because the COT data is released on Friday at the close, therefore the dots actually show up on Monday, of the weekly candles

$SPX - Chart Link - the 2 hr H&S chart met it's conservative measured move i.e. the height of the shoulder subtracted from the neckline. The larger target has not be met of course i.e. the height from the hedge to the neckline.  Also keep an eye on those fibs.

$SPX - Chart Link - 15 min view

$SPX - Chart Link - daily view, price down to that next pivot at 2070, those picots are magnets

$GOLD - Chart Link - the COT data is out, the commercial net short is now 61K, however this data is 3 days delayed, therefore it only reflects Tuesday's close, with today's drop it's probably anther 5 - 10K lower in reality.

Gold has been such the dog

Yep I haven't looked at the 'net short' for gold for a while, for so long last year and this year it didn't move very much, and quite honestly our simple technical analysis has been spot on and simpler anyway

I looked this morning the net short for gold was 132K last Friday. I have not been following it so I would have to look at the history.  Historically that's actually not very high as it usually get's well over 200K, however that said I think there has been a trend change from last year and the bar is probably lower.  

my analysis and what I said on gold and silver over the last few weeks still applies.  I think it works higher, I think decent pullbacks are buying opportunities in Silver, I think it works it's way back up to the 25 - 26 area on the weekly chart, I don't need COT to tell me that.  

Gold COT chart - I'll update this chart tonight

I find the COT interesting only when there is a big chance, have never found too much use for it personally for the indexes

ES 15 min chart, tested the primary pivot and bounced off it for now, down about 4 points from yesterday's close

The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. Australia and Taiwan moved up, New Zealand down. Europe is currently mixed. Russia is up 1.3%, Greece down 0.9%. The dollar is down. Oil is flat, copper is up. Gold and silver are down

Notable earnings before Tuesday’s open: ACM, ACOR, AER, AKRX, AME, ARCC, ARCO, ARW, BCE, CBOE, CNK, COCO, CRTO, CRZO, CYNO, DISCA, DNR, DTV, DWRE, EMR, EXH, EXLP, FE, GDP, GLDD, HCP, HFC, HPT, HSH, HSIC, HTH, IFF, ISIS, KWK, MMP, MNTA, MONT, MOS, MPW, MSO, MVIS, MWIV, NRG, NTI, NUS, ODP, OXF, PDCE, PQ, PRIM, RDC, RHP, RTI, OTC:RTRX, STWD, TDG, TGH, TPH, TW, UBS, VMC, VSH, VTG, WCG, WNR, XRAY, ZBRA, ZTS

Notable earnings after Tuesday’s close: ACLS, AFG, AGU, ALL, AMTG, ARC, ARRS, ATVI, AVNR, AVNW, AWR, BEAT, BID, BIO, CENT, CHUY, CNVR, CODE, CPT, CSU, CYH, CYNI, DDR, DIS, DLR, DPM, DTLK, EA, EGAN, ENPH, ETE, ETP, EXTR, FEYE, FMC, FNGN, FRGI, FSLR, FST, FTR, GALE, GHDX, GNC, GNMK, GRPN, IAG, ICUI, IMI, JIVE, LBTYA, LGCY, LLNW, LYV, MCHP, MITT, MOVE, MPO, MRO, MTDR, MYGN, NYMT, OCLR, OKE, OKS, PBPB, PEGA, PSEC, PXD, PZZA, QGEN, QUAD, RDN, REGI, RGP, RLOC, RP, SAAS, SAPE, SGMO, SPA, SSNI, SXL, THOR, THRX, TRIP, TRMB, TRMR, TSRA, WES, WFM, WTI, ZAGG, ZU

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