My EW subscription has the USD in wave 4 correction of (1) up so
are saying the bottom is in. They expect the market to complete
wave 5 of 5 up during this USD wave 4 correction. So far they are
saying that the USD rise has been impulsive but want to confirm
this after the wave 2 correction which needs to be 3 waves (ABC).
My forex reports are saying the USD is strong but needs to break 76
to confirm a bottom was put in place. I think from memory, Matt's
50MA is sitting at 76.50.
regarding the US Dollar, the move up this morning was pretty
strong on the 60 min chart and it shows on the MACD which is strong
with no divergence. That positive divergence is playing out
from the 60 min chart.
too early to say with confidence about a dollar bottom, remember
EWI has called a dollar bottom since September, eventually they'll
be right.
but so far the move on the 60 min chart has been strong and on
the daily chart now at least stochastics is oversold and turning
up. Last week when the dollar bounced, stochastics was
already overbought, now it's in a much better position on the daily
chart
Yes, USD looking good at the moment. I want to see gold/silver
roll over for confirmation. Silver looks to be forming a H&S
top on the daily spot chart. A break below $17 increases this
possibility and a breach of the neckline at $16 gives a target of
$14. Still too early to call! I note that the GDX has put in a top
reversal on the daily. Evening Star! Very bearish! I also note the
GDX is forming an expanding triangle. If we get one last rally in
the indexes that does not produce a new high for the GDX then that
may be a great short!
I should add that it is better to confirm a top or bottom rather
than race in suspecting one. The wave 2 correction from a top or
bottom normally retraces 50-62% of wave 1 and can retrace up to
100% meanining a potential double top/bottom. What I am saying is
that getting in during wave 2 normally gets you in at the best
price unless you fluked the exact top/bottom. For every top/bottom
you get right there will be ten you get wrong.
US Dollar
Posted by kutschera on 12th of Nov 2009 at 01:00 pm
Matt from what you can see, would you say that the US Dollar has made a Bottom?
Thanks Chri
My EW subscription has the
Posted by phillw on 12th of Nov 2009 at 01:45 pm
My EW subscription has the USD in wave 4 correction of (1) up so are saying the bottom is in. They expect the market to complete wave 5 of 5 up during this USD wave 4 correction. So far they are saying that the USD rise has been impulsive but want to confirm this after the wave 2 correction which needs to be 3 waves (ABC). My forex reports are saying the USD is strong but needs to break 76 to confirm a bottom was put in place. I think from memory, Matt's 50MA is sitting at 76.50.
US Dollar
Posted by matt on 12th of Nov 2009 at 01:59 pm
regarding the US Dollar, the move up this morning was pretty strong on the 60 min chart and it shows on the MACD which is strong with no divergence. That positive divergence is playing out from the 60 min chart.
too early to say with confidence about a dollar bottom, remember EWI has called a dollar bottom since September, eventually they'll be right.
but so far the move on the 60 min chart has been strong and on the daily chart now at least stochastics is oversold and turning up. Last week when the dollar bounced, stochastics was already overbought, now it's in a much better position on the daily chart
Yes, USD looking good at
Posted by phillw on 12th of Nov 2009 at 02:37 pm
Yes, USD looking good at the moment. I want to see gold/silver roll over for confirmation. Silver looks to be forming a H&S top on the daily spot chart. A break below $17 increases this possibility and a breach of the neckline at $16 gives a target of $14. Still too early to call! I note that the GDX has put in a top reversal on the daily. Evening Star! Very bearish! I also note the GDX is forming an expanding triangle. If we get one last rally in the indexes that does not produce a new high for the GDX then that may be a great short!
I should add that it is better to confirm a top or bottom rather than race in suspecting one. The wave 2 correction from a top or bottom normally retraces 50-62% of wave 1 and can retrace up to 100% meanining a potential double top/bottom. What I am saying is that getting in during wave 2 normally gets you in at the best price unless you fluked the exact top/bottom. For every top/bottom you get right there will be ten you get wrong.
US Dollar
Posted by upthedownescalator on 12th of Nov 2009 at 01:04 pm
is UUP tracking the dollar accurately now?
well, UUP should go up
Posted by matt on 12th of Nov 2009 at 04:14 pm
well, UUP should go up and down with the dollar.