SPX mid term elections year performance during second term president 

from Claude.

SPX 20 day MA is pointing up. I’m leaning bullish. But I’m open to any possibility

Here’s SPX (S&P 500) performance for midterm years that fell during a president’s second term — 1958 (Eisenhower), 1974 (Nixon/Ford), 1986 (Reagan), 1998 (Clinton), 2006 (Bush 43), 2014 (Obama). (2026, Trump’s second-term midterm, hasn’t happened yet.)

Second-term midterm years, S&P 500 calendar-year price return:

• 1958 (Eisenhower): +43.7%
• 1974 (Nixon → Ford): −25.9% (Watergate/oil shock/stagflation)
• 1986 (Reagan): +18.5%
• 1998 (Clinton): +28.3%
• 2006 (Bush 43): +15.6%
• 2014 (Obama): +13.5%

Average: +15.6% (excluding 1974’s outlier: +23.9%)

That’s well above the ~4-5% average for midterm years generally. Five of six were strong up-years — only 1974 broke the pattern, and that was driven by Watergate, the oil embargo, and stagflation rather than the election-cycle itself. Small sample size (n=6) though, so treat this as suggestive rather than statistically robust.

Using monthly-average price data (so these are approximations of the month’s return, not exact month-end-to-month-end):

Approximate Sept / Oct performance (from monthly average prices — a proxy for actual month-end returns):

Averages: September ≈ −2.0%, October ≈ +1.2%

Takeaways:

• September was negative in 4 of 6 years — consistent with the well-known “worst month of the year” seasonality, and especially rough in 1974 (Watergate/oil shock/stagflation).
• October flipped positive in 4 of 6 years, including sizable rebounds in 1958 and 2006 — this lines up with the “October low, year-end rally” pattern often cited for midterm years generally.
• Caveat: this data is built from monthly average closing prices, not month-end closes, so it smooths out intra-month swings (it’ll understate things like October 1987-style whipsaws had they been in this sample). Treat the shape of the pattern as informative, not the precise numbers.