Posted by kingpin15 on 29th of Jul 2026 at 10:26 am
If the Fed hikes today, it’s not your garden variety interest
rate hike like 2022/2023. The economy is firing on just one
cylinder these days as AI Capex and deficits are the dominant
drivers of U.S. growth. The OBBBA buzz is gone now as its impact
peaked already and the rate of change of capex growth has turned
negative. The negative stock market reactions to increased capex,
the flip to cash-flow negative at companies like Google, rising CDS
that accompanies rising issuance, and physical limits to capex
growth all put a lid on how much AI Capex can add to 2027
growth.
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rate hike?
Posted by kingpin15 on 29th of Jul 2026 at 10:26 am
If the Fed hikes today, it’s not your garden variety interest rate hike like 2022/2023. The economy is firing on just one cylinder these days as AI Capex and deficits are the dominant drivers of U.S. growth. The OBBBA buzz is gone now as its impact peaked already and the rate of change of capex growth has turned negative. The negative stock market reactions to increased capex, the flip to cash-flow negative at companies like Google, rising CDS that accompanies rising issuance, and physical limits to capex growth all put a lid on how much AI Capex can add to 2027 growth.