Posted by frtaylor on 29th of Jun 2026 at 10:11 pm
Looking through the charts of some of these fertilizer stocks,
all but LIN are in downtrends. Is it because with fertilizer prices
increasing (from what I've read), sales have dropped? Idk, but I
would think the total quantity of fertilizer sold would be down due
to supply constraints. If price hasn't gone up enough to compensate
for reduced supply, then profits go down, which would explain the
charts. I've bought and been stopped out of LIN, which so far has
been a false breakout.
The trade in this industry has been confusing to me.
Of the five charts below, MOS is the only one with MACD
divergence. It's also broken through the 9ema and 20ma, and on the
cusp of breaking over the 50ma. LIN has failed to break out but is
holding the 50. CF is holding the 200, but the 20 and 50 are above,
and are down sloping, and there's no MACD divergence. The
last two don't very look good, but NTR is at least into a demand
zone with some signs of a reversal in the candles (but could be a
bear flag).
Posted by timebandit on 29th of Jun 2026 at 10:32 pm
Farmers near me have been using manure from pig farms instead of
fertilizer. Seems pretty widespread in this area, but just
anecdotal, have no data to back it up
Posted by frtaylor on 29th of Jun 2026 at 10:23 pm
This article is fairly dense, but summarizes by saying,
"fertilizer markets are entering a structurally constrained phase
in which affordability, logistics reliability, and geopolitical
stability are becoming more important determinants of supply
security than production growth itself."
Looking through the charts of
Fertilizer prices
Posted by frtaylor on 29th of Jun 2026 at 10:11 pm
Looking through the charts of some of these fertilizer stocks, all but LIN are in downtrends. Is it because with fertilizer prices increasing (from what I've read), sales have dropped? Idk, but I would think the total quantity of fertilizer sold would be down due to supply constraints. If price hasn't gone up enough to compensate for reduced supply, then profits go down, which would explain the charts. I've bought and been stopped out of LIN, which so far has been a false breakout. The trade in this industry has been confusing to me.
Of the five charts below, MOS is the only one with MACD divergence. It's also broken through the 9ema and 20ma, and on the cusp of breaking over the 50ma. LIN has failed to break out but is holding the 50. CF is holding the 200, but the 20 and 50 are above, and are down sloping, and there's no MACD divergence. The last two don't very look good, but NTR is at least into a demand zone with some signs of a reversal in the candles (but could be a bear flag).
MOS
LIN
CF
NTR
LXU
MOS turning down again. Below
Posted by frtaylor on 30th of Jun 2026 at 11:33 am
MOS turning down again. Below all moving averages now.
Farmers near me have been
Posted by timebandit on 29th of Jun 2026 at 10:32 pm
Farmers near me have been using manure from pig farms instead of fertilizer. Seems pretty widespread in this area, but just anecdotal, have no data to back it up
This article is fairly dense,
Posted by frtaylor on 29th of Jun 2026 at 10:23 pm
This article is fairly dense, but summarizes by saying, "fertilizer markets are entering a structurally constrained phase in which affordability, logistics reliability, and geopolitical stability are becoming more important determinants of supply security than production growth itself."
https://agrospectrumasia.com/news/24/4176/global-fertilizer-trade-hits-81-bn-as-energy-volatility-strait-of-hormuz-disruptions-and-geopolitical-risks-reshape-supply-chains-fao.html
And, given the above, "high fertilizer prices could persist," according to this article.
https://bworldonline.com/economy/2026/06/28/759651/high-fertilizer-prices-could-persist-bmi/