XE is a leading designer of advanced nuclear technology and
manufacturer of advanced nuclear fuel. We see the case for the
company to deploy ~20 GW by 2040, supported by a strong technology
proposition, capital-light business model, and excellent
partnerships. Initiating OW.
Initiating at Overweight with a price target of $41/share. We
average two valuation approaches to arrive at a $41/share target
price, implying a +60% upside. Our base case embeds conservative
core assumptions: 20 GW of reactors deployed by 2040 (very small
relative to power demand growth in the US alone), first project
online in 2033, break-even EBITDA in 2030, and EBITDA margins
rising to ~50% in the mid-2030s, similar to comparable fuel,
services, and licensing business models. The stock has risen +11%
since the IPO at $23, but at an implied 6.8x 2029 EV/Sales, we
think the market is still missing deployment opportunities, market
share gains across the SMR industry, and a wide 2.1x bull-bear
spread, with probability leaning toward the upside. We think the
company has a strong technology and commercial proposition, making
it one of the key players to help shape the next generation of
nuclear reactors.
X-energy and Centrus
announceda definitive agreement for Centrus to
provide enrichment services for LEU and HALEU. HALEU enriched at
the American Centrifuge Plant in Piketon, Ohio will be supplied to
X-energy's fuel fabrication campus in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The
announcement did not specify exact volumes nor timing of the
agreement, but HALEU production is expected to scale in a phased
approach to align with X-energy's commercial pipeline.
Our takeaway: While specifics were not disclosed, we think the
agreement helps derisk concerns around HALEU supply for X-energy's
11.5GW pipeline. Recall, X-energy has noted it has secured the
initial HALEU needed to support the Dow Seadrift site through the
DOE's HALEU Availability Program, so we would expect Centrus'
supply to support a portion of the deployment of Xe-100s to
Amazon's sites. As reiterated on Centrus' 2Q earnings call
yesterday, the company expects the first full cascade of
centrifuges to come online in 2029 in Piketon.
XE X-Energy Inc. North America Designing a New Nuclear Era
Posted by kalkgrun on 2nd of Jun 2026 at 05:02 pm
Interesting IPO. Starting a spec position
XE is a leading designer of advanced nuclear technology and manufacturer of advanced nuclear fuel. We see the case for the company to deploy ~20 GW by 2040, supported by a strong technology proposition, capital-light business model, and excellent partnerships. Initiating OW.
Initiating at Overweight with a price target of $41/share. We average two valuation approaches to arrive at a $41/share target price, implying a +60% upside. Our base case embeds conservative core assumptions: 20 GW of reactors deployed by 2040 (very small relative to power demand growth in the US alone), first project online in 2033, break-even EBITDA in 2030, and EBITDA margins rising to ~50% in the mid-2030s, similar to comparable fuel, services, and licensing business models. The stock has risen +11% since the IPO at $23, but at an implied 6.8x 2029 EV/Sales, we think the market is still missing deployment opportunities, market share gains across the SMR industry, and a wide 2.1x bull-bear spread, with probability leaning toward the upside. We think the company has a strong technology and commercial proposition, making it one of the key players to help shape the next generation of nuclear reactors.
Another Spec XE
Posted by kalkgrun on 7th of Aug 2026 at 01:57 pm
Starting to look good. Target $40.
X-energy and Centrus announceda definitive agreement for Centrus to provide enrichment services for LEU and HALEU. HALEU enriched at the American Centrifuge Plant in Piketon, Ohio will be supplied to X-energy's fuel fabrication campus in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The announcement did not specify exact volumes nor timing of the agreement, but HALEU production is expected to scale in a phased approach to align with X-energy's commercial pipeline.
Our takeaway: While specifics were not disclosed, we think the agreement helps derisk concerns around HALEU supply for X-energy's 11.5GW pipeline. Recall, X-energy has noted it has secured the initial HALEU needed to support the Dow Seadrift site through the DOE's HALEU Availability Program, so we would expect Centrus' supply to support a portion of the deployment of Xe-100s to Amazon's sites. As reiterated on Centrus' 2Q earnings call yesterday, the company expects the first full cascade of centrifuges to come online in 2029 in Piketon.
Higher low, great risk to
Posted by kingpin15 on 2nd of Jun 2026 at 07:04 pm
Higher low, great risk to reward after todays reversal. Stop around $26.....nice reminder on this. lost track after IPO