I redid the table instead of going 1 month out for expiration I
went out 1.5 months. Put strike prices use the STS, so if the
STS is 666.2, I will use a strike price of 666 (round down), that
is also the stop out for the options if that is hit by the QQQ.
Delta for the puts average in the 0.81 to 0.88 range. For the
cheap calls that you purchase with the premium gained from selling
the put, you use an expiration date 1.5 months out, and target a
0.07 to 0.08 delta (which is way out of the money), to be more
conservative you would choose a higher delta. And you compute the
number of calls you can buy by dividing the call option price by
the put price. So if you were able to sell the put at 6.75 and your
cheap call option costs 1.18, you can buy 5 of them.
Currently the QQQ KISS trend trade that went long on April 1st
is up 26.3%. Using the conservative option strategy you would
be up 38.7%.
clearly if one bought straight calls they would have made a lot
more, however I'm modeling this for a 401K type conservative
approach. In a tax free account you cannot buy strait call
and put options, but you can sell premium. This is called a
synthetic long or in my Fidelity Sep they call it a custom option
strategy
on the QQQ's KISS from the April 1st entry there have been no
R2M trades, so I'm simply doing this every time a new higher STS
stop appears (closing out the set and starting a new set using the
new STS as the Put strike price)
the attached table shows the trades. Theoretically on Friday you
would have closed out the option set started on May 8th and started
a new one. What will eventually happen is the last option set
will stop out as a lower when the KISS system finally closes out.
However, the hope is that you could do this 5, 10 15 or more times
and make money each time, with only the final one being a loser.
On the attached table at the bottom I show what it looks like
to do that option set in Fidelity 401K
Additionally, this type of options strategy where you sell puts,
buy calls is already done by some of these covered call ETF's like
QYLD, JEPQ etc, however while those ETF's will tend to have a lower
max drawdown over holding QQQ's (for example QQQ's had a
-12.6% drawdown during the Feb/March correction, whereas JEPQ only
had a -9.5% draw down. HOWEVER, their strategy tends to give up
potential and underperforms on rallies (so you get a bit less
drawdown on corrections, but you give up gains on uptrends).
QQQ is up 20.5% this year, whereas JEPQ is only up 9.5%, that's
a lot of potential to give up for taking a slightly less drawdown
of 9.5% vs 12.5%.
My option strategy with KISS makes a LOT more than simply
holding the QQQ's, even though it's doing a similar thing to ETF's
like JEPQ, QYLD etc because it's using the KISS system an STS stops
as a timing strategy to strategically place those option trades.
Whereas the ETF JEPQ, they have no market timing model to guide
their option strategy
This assumes STS only goes up but I notice sometimes on HP
systems the STS values get lowered. Does this ever happen on QQQ or
SPY daily KISS systems? If so, how does the option trades
change?
yes majority of time STS goes up or stays flat, once in a
while it might dip and usually when that happens it's only for a
short while. My assumption is that you either stay put the
options and use that new STS as the stop out,
or one could simply follow the system I outlined, every time
there's a new STS you close out your current options and start a
new set, therefore if the STS moves down, you do the same thing,
close out the current set and start a new set with the PUT strike
based on that new STS, which honestly probably makes the most
sense
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I redid the table instead
QQQ KISS new STS jumps to 688.6 from 686.2
Posted by matt on 30th of May 2026 at 12:35 pm
I redid the table instead of going 1 month out for expiration I went out 1.5 months. Put strike prices use the STS, so if the STS is 666.2, I will use a strike price of 666 (round down), that is also the stop out for the options if that is hit by the QQQ. Delta for the puts average in the 0.81 to 0.88 range. For the cheap calls that you purchase with the premium gained from selling the put, you use an expiration date 1.5 months out, and target a 0.07 to 0.08 delta (which is way out of the money), to be more conservative you would choose a higher delta. And you compute the number of calls you can buy by dividing the call option price by the put price. So if you were able to sell the put at 6.75 and your cheap call option costs 1.18, you can buy 5 of them.
Currently the QQQ KISS trend trade that went long on April 1st is up 26.3%. Using the conservative option strategy you would be up 38.7%.
clearly if one bought straight calls they would have made a lot more, however I'm modeling this for a 401K type conservative approach. In a tax free account you cannot buy strait call and put options, but you can sell premium. This is called a synthetic long or in my Fidelity Sep they call it a custom option strategy
on the QQQ's KISS from the April 1st entry there have been no R2M trades, so I'm simply doing this every time a new higher STS stop appears (closing out the set and starting a new set using the new STS as the Put strike price)
the attached table shows the trades. Theoretically on Friday you would have closed out the option set started on May 8th and started a new one. What will eventually happen is the last option set will stop out as a lower when the KISS system finally closes out. However, the hope is that you could do this 5, 10 15 or more times and make money each time, with only the final one being a loser. On the attached table at the bottom I show what it looks like to do that option set in Fidelity 401K
Additionally, this type of options strategy where you sell puts, buy calls is already done by some of these covered call ETF's like QYLD, JEPQ etc, however while those ETF's will tend to have a lower max drawdown over holding QQQ's (for example QQQ's had a -12.6% drawdown during the Feb/March correction, whereas JEPQ only had a -9.5% draw down. HOWEVER, their strategy tends to give up potential and underperforms on rallies (so you get a bit less drawdown on corrections, but you give up gains on uptrends).
QQQ is up 20.5% this year, whereas JEPQ is only up 9.5%, that's a lot of potential to give up for taking a slightly less drawdown of 9.5% vs 12.5%.
My option strategy with KISS makes a LOT more than simply holding the QQQ's, even though it's doing a similar thing to ETF's like JEPQ, QYLD etc because it's using the KISS system an STS stops as a timing strategy to strategically place those option trades. Whereas the ETF JEPQ, they have no market timing model to guide their option strategy
This assumes STS only goes
Posted by vsunil on 30th of May 2026 at 02:52 pm
This assumes STS only goes up but I notice sometimes on HP systems the STS values get lowered. Does this ever happen on QQQ or SPY daily KISS systems? If so, how does the option trades change?
yes majority of time STS
Posted by matt on 31st of May 2026 at 03:20 pm
yes majority of time STS goes up or stays flat, once in a while it might dip and usually when that happens it's only for a short while. My assumption is that you either stay put the options and use that new STS as the stop out,
or one could simply follow the system I outlined, every time there's a new STS you close out your current options and start a new set, therefore if the STS moves down, you do the same thing, close out the current set and start a new set with the PUT strike based on that new STS, which honestly probably makes the most sense