Gap and then slapped back

    MSFT still looks pretty good

    Posted by frtaylor on 19th of May 2026 at 04:03 pm

    Gap and then slapped back down. 

    okay?  it does look okay

    Posted by matt on 19th of May 2026 at 04:07 pm

    okay?  it does look okay from a chart perspective even still.  That said one also understands the field position of the market right now, which has and is still vulnerable to more correction, and big cap tech stocks like that would have trouble getting traction to the upside at this time

    just like IGV software, been strong lately but it too opened higher today only to give back gains

    I guess the redneck analogy is like pissing into the wind, hard for this big cap longs to get traction to the upside at this time

    Yep.  Pissing in the wind.

    Posted by auni on 19th of May 2026 at 04:18 pm

    Yep.  Pissing in the wind.  

    Or, another hillbilly saying, Wish in one hand and shit in the other.  

    Personally,  I I like tail(wind) a lot.

    I scaled out over the last week.  I have one position(large) TSLA, Bought at the bottom today with a tight stop.  

    I would say MSFT is

    Posted by fibbro on 19th of May 2026 at 04:31 pm

    I would say MSFT is in trouble if I wasn't aware that they basically have a monopoly power with their most important customer, by far - the US federal government.  The test GSA applies to MSFT proposals for licenses every time their GSA schedule come up for renewal is simply this - is there evidence that you sell to retail at this price? If yes, are you offering us a 15% discount to the retail price? If the answer to both is yes, they proposal is deemed "fair and reasonable."  So, all they need to do is hold retail prices stupid high, get a couple of suckers to buy at the stupidly inflated price....and then they get millions of seat licenses sold to the Fed Gov with zero pushback on pricing. Rinse repeat. No massive upgrades needed. They are just printing money because their largest customer has almost zero price sensitivity.

    Fact check this with your favorite LLM.  FWIW, this is the way many, if not most GSA schedule prices are determined "fair and reasonable."    That's how you end up with $800 dollar toilet seats. The vendor sells a few to the "public" at stupidly inflated prices and then a lazy Gov contracting officer asks to see proof of sales to the general public plus a 15% discount to that sales price. Easy day for the vendor as long as they know how to play the game. 

    Yep

    Posted by auni on 19th of May 2026 at 04:37 pm

    I have asked Grok to write me some software so I don't have to use Windows.  Grok asked if I want it with or without all of the virus.

    Wait for it...

    Exactly. I do almost everything

    Posted by fibbro on 19th of May 2026 at 04:49 pm

    Exactly. I do almost everything in terminal windows these days and my Ai is primarily working / building on Ubuntu. Windows just getting in the way at this point, for the most part. Ai pushing normies like me into Linux can't be great for MSFT future...but I'm not their target...they just have to maintain Fed Gov sales....nothing else really moves their needle.  

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