BTSG received several questions about its relatively
smaller infusion business and broader biosimilar risk on its
earnings and follow up calls the next day. Importantly, infusion is
a small portion of
BTSG's book (exact revenue is undisclosed, grouped with
Specialty Pharmacy), though a segment that
BTSG has recently touted for its high growth profile,
noting +DD% growth in acute and in chronic in 1Q. However, the
current portfolio is skewed more towards acute, and
BTSG is focused on growing more in infusible drugs on
the chronic side than it is injectable or subq, and has little IG
therapy. Given its size and exposure, it seems less likely that
BTSG would end up in a situation similar to
OPCH, and it will likely be mindful of potential drug
exposure as it expands its business.
We revise our
BTSG estimates on incremental confidence in near term
and longer term growth prospects, where we are now forecasting
$810M EBITDA in '26 (from $778M prior) and $930M in '27 (from $897M
prior). We are raising our PT to $62, from $48, derived from 16.5x
'27 EBITDA, from 13.5x prior. Our new multiple is ~3.9x premium to
the home health peer group, from ~0.7x prior, which we view as
warranted as
BTSG continues to solidify itself as a leader in the
Specialty Pharmacy arena that can deliver consistent growth in a
league above peers. Its recent Investor Day target for 15-20%
organic EBITDA growth from '26-'28 was impressive and the recent
momentum helps to instill further confidence in the growth profile.
BTSG already addressed that the outperforming
Pharmacy Solutions segment could see growth moderate (i.e. in the
teens/20%s vs. 40%+ of late) but Infusion, Home & Community and
Provider Services will continue to meet the LT range. M&A can
also provide ample upside, with at least $2B in incremental capital
availability through 2028, which could add 2-3% to EBITDA growth
annually (MSe). Thus, we believe
BTSG has ample runway for multiple expansion as its
story becomes increasingly clear and compelling. Reiterate OW.
BTSG BrightSpring Health
Posted by kalkgrun on 13th of May 2026 at 02:46 pm
BTSGSold some today but looks great l/t
BTSG received several questions about its relatively smaller infusion business and broader biosimilar risk on its earnings and follow up calls the next day. Importantly, infusion is a small portion of BTSG's book (exact revenue is undisclosed, grouped with Specialty Pharmacy), though a segment that BTSG has recently touted for its high growth profile, noting +DD% growth in acute and in chronic in 1Q. However, the current portfolio is skewed more towards acute, and BTSG is focused on growing more in infusible drugs on the chronic side than it is injectable or subq, and has little IG therapy. Given its size and exposure, it seems less likely that BTSG would end up in a situation similar to OPCH, and it will likely be mindful of potential drug exposure as it expands its business.
We revise our BTSG estimates on incremental confidence in near term and longer term growth prospects, where we are now forecasting $810M EBITDA in '26 (from $778M prior) and $930M in '27 (from $897M prior). We are raising our PT to $62, from $48, derived from 16.5x '27 EBITDA, from 13.5x prior. Our new multiple is ~3.9x premium to the home health peer group, from ~0.7x prior, which we view as warranted as BTSG continues to solidify itself as a leader in the Specialty Pharmacy arena that can deliver consistent growth in a league above peers. Its recent Investor Day target for 15-20% organic EBITDA growth from '26-'28 was impressive and the recent momentum helps to instill further confidence in the growth profile. BTSG already addressed that the outperforming Pharmacy Solutions segment could see growth moderate (i.e. in the teens/20%s vs. 40%+ of late) but Infusion, Home & Community and Provider Services will continue to meet the LT range. M&A can also provide ample upside, with at least $2B in incremental capital availability through 2028, which could add 2-3% to EBITDA growth annually (MSe). Thus, we believe BTSG has ample runway for multiple expansion as its story becomes increasingly clear and compelling. Reiterate OW.
thx for the detailed post
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2026 at 02:52 pm
thx for the detailed post and info, while chart is overbought, MACD still healthy - basically price has been very consistent steady eddy up trending