Posted by kalkgrun on 13th of May 2026 at 01:33 pm
Looking at starting a spec position
GPCR (OW) - GPCR discussed their views on Aleni's (oral GLP1)
best-in-class potential on efficacy and discontinuation rate. In
particular, GPCR commented that Aleni has not yet shown a
weight-loss plateau at week 44 (Ph2 data). Aleni Ph2 data will be
presented at the ADA conference in June, and the upcoming Ph3
program will use 2.5mg as the starting dose. Mgmt. emphasized the
importance of the amylin program, attributing ~50% of the company's
value to it. We update our model to reflect 1Q results and tweak
expenses (see within).
Structure Therapeutics Inc (GPCR.O)
Our $126 price target includes ~$3.46bn in risk-adjusted
revenues in 2040E ($6.30bn unadjusted). We derive our price target
from a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis that uses a discount
rate of 12.5% and a 0% terminal growth rate.
Risks to Upside
GSBR-1290 obesity data is better than anticipated and/or
development timelines are accelerated.
Risks to Downside
GSBR-1290 data in obesity disappoints and/or development
timelines are delayed.
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GPCR GLP-1 Aleni
Posted by kalkgrun on 13th of May 2026 at 01:33 pm
Structure Therapeutics Inc (GPCR.O)
Our $126 price target includes ~$3.46bn in risk-adjusted revenues in 2040E ($6.30bn unadjusted). We derive our price target from a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis that uses a discount rate of 12.5% and a 0% terminal growth rate.
Risks to Upside
GSBR-1290 obesity data is better than anticipated and/or development timelines are accelerated.
Risks to Downside
GSBR-1290 data in obesity disappoints and/or development timelines are delayed.