"The oil math is hard to fathom, but we’ve never been in this
situation before. We’ve never had an outage anywhere near 11 to 13
million b/d. As I wrote before, none of the energy specialists
disagree on the math because we used to argue over 500k b/d to 1
million b/d. Once the outage reached this size, arguing between 11,
13, or 9 million b/d becomes irrelevant. The level of demand
destruction needed to balance the market will be either 4x or 6x
that of the previous recession. You see, it starts to lose meaning
after a while."
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Interesting Oil Article
Posted by kalkgrun on 12th of May 2026 at 07:19 am
The Oil Market
"The oil math is hard to fathom, but we’ve never been in this situation before. We’ve never had an outage anywhere near 11 to 13 million b/d. As I wrote before, none of the energy specialists disagree on the math because we used to argue over 500k b/d to 1 million b/d. Once the outage reached this size, arguing between 11, 13, or 9 million b/d becomes irrelevant. The level of demand destruction needed to balance the market will be either 4x or 6x that of the previous recession. You see, it starts to lose meaning after a while."