I’m not an Elliot Wave guy by any means and the limited
knowledge I have of it comes from Breakpoint. The issue I’ve found
with the EW analysis lies in the last sentence of your post:
Wave counting can vary between analysts until the pattern
fully unfolds. It seems as if you never know the wave
finished until AFTER the fact. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve
been short wave 5 with some time of indicator divergence, only to
have the market continue higher and it’s labeling change to some
subdivided count. No disrespect to Matt (or Steve) - I have been a
loyal member here for maybe 12 years now and find other tools and
analyses absolutely invaluable. I’m just very skeptical of Elliot
Wave. Seems like it only works in hindsight.
Posted by timebandit on 7th of May 2026 at 08:26 am
The future is rational only in hindsight. Period. That
isn’t just true in trading, it is true in life.
I don’t use Eliot Wave, only understand it enough to do an
occasional wave count. In other words, to be dangerous. But I
suspect it is like the tools I do use, which merely help me
recognize patterns and conditions that help reduce the odds I will
lose money. An imperfect model through which to interpret the
market.
Posted by elementsix on 7th of May 2026 at 09:53 am
Elliot Wave - I think the real benefit of EW is in the macro
picture. It's about knowing what Wave you are currently in and what
to expect as far as price action during that Wave. Think weekly,
not daily.
We're in Wave 5, Impulsive. Being a little conservative will
likely be rewarded. When we get to Wave 1, maybe be more
aggressive. That's great macro knowledge to have. It tells as WHAT
to expect now and next (but not WHEN). EW is not an everything
tool... use it for what it's meant for and rely on a multitude of
other indicators.
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EW
Blow off v move
Posted by pep8261 on 7th of May 2026 at 06:48 am
I’m not an Elliot Wave guy by any means and the limited knowledge I have of it comes from Breakpoint. The issue I’ve found with the EW analysis lies in the last sentence of your post: Wave counting can vary between analysts until the pattern fully unfolds. It seems as if you never know the wave finished until AFTER the fact. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been short wave 5 with some time of indicator divergence, only to have the market continue higher and it’s labeling change to some subdivided count. No disrespect to Matt (or Steve) - I have been a loyal member here for maybe 12 years now and find other tools and analyses absolutely invaluable. I’m just very skeptical of Elliot Wave. Seems like it only works in hindsight.
The future is rational only
Posted by timebandit on 7th of May 2026 at 08:26 am
The future is rational only in hindsight. Period. That isn’t just true in trading, it is true in life.
I don’t use Eliot Wave, only understand it enough to do an occasional wave count. In other words, to be dangerous. But I suspect it is like the tools I do use, which merely help me recognize patterns and conditions that help reduce the odds I will lose money. An imperfect model through which to interpret the market.
All models are wrong, some can be useful.
Elliot Wave
Posted by elementsix on 7th of May 2026 at 09:53 am
Elliot Wave - I think the real benefit of EW is in the macro picture. It's about knowing what Wave you are currently in and what to expect as far as price action during that Wave. Think weekly, not daily.
We're in Wave 5, Impulsive. Being a little conservative will likely be rewarded. When we get to Wave 1, maybe be more aggressive. That's great macro knowledge to have. It tells as WHAT to expect now and next (but not WHEN). EW is not an everything tool... use it for what it's meant for and rely on a multitude of other indicators.