Blow off v move

    Posted by auni on 6th of May 2026 at 05:06 pm

    QQQ  <---- chart

    PLEASE READ THIS.  I know it is long but, don't be a goldfish. <--- Click

    Wave V (Wave 5)in the Elliott Wave Theory is the final impulse wave in a five-wave motive (impulse) sequence that moves in the direction of the larger trend (typically upward in a bull market). It completes the larger trend before a significant correction (usually a three-wave ABC pattern) begins.Key Characteristics of Wave 5

    • Final Push in the Trend:It represents the last leg upward (in a bull market) or downward (in a bear market). Prices reach new highs/lows, but with diminishing strength compared to Wave 3. 
    • Psychology & Sentiment: 
      • Extreme optimism and bullishness (in an uptrend). News is almost universally positive.
      • Late-stage retail investors finally pile in, often at the peak (the "retail wave").
      • Euphoria is high, but smart money starts exiting. Bears are often ridiculed. 
    • Momentum & Technical Signs:
      • Often shows momentum divergence — price makes a new high, but indicators (RSI, MACD, etc.) fail to confirm it. 
      • Slower price advance and lower enthusiasm than Wave 3.
      • Lower volume and narrower market breadth (fewer stocks participating) than Wave 3. 
      • Can feel "heavy" or labored.
    • Length & Structure:
      • Usually shorter and less dynamic than Wave 3.
      • Often equals the length of Wave 1 (common Fibonacci relationship).
      • It subdivides into five smaller waves (like all impulse waves).
      • Can be extended (stronger and longer) in some cases, especially in commodities. 
    • Rules/Guidelines:
      • Wave 5 should not be the shortest among Waves 1, 3, and 5.
      • It often ends with a truncation (fails to exceed Wave 3 high) or throw-over (briefly exceeds channel lines). 

    Comparison to Wave 3Wave 3 is typically the strongest, longest, and most powerful.Wave 5 is weaker, more emotional, and signals exhaustion of the trend.Trading ImplicationsWave 5 is a high-risk area for new longs (in an uptrend) because a major reversal often follows. Many traders look for divergence signals or use Fibonacci targets to project the end of Wave 5 and prepare for the correction.

    Trading ImplicationsWave 5 is a high-risk area for new longs(in an uptrend) because a major reversal often follows. Many traders look for divergence signals or use Fibonacci targets to project the end of Wave 5 and prepare for the correction.Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and works best when combined with other technical tools (volume, RSI, support/resistance, etc.). Wave counting can vary between analysts until the pattern fully unfolds.

    EW

    Posted by pep8261 on 7th of May 2026 at 06:48 am

    I’m not an Elliot Wave guy by any means and the limited knowledge I have of it comes from Breakpoint. The issue I’ve found with the EW analysis lies in the last sentence of your post: Wave counting can vary between analysts until the pattern fully unfolds. It seems as if you never know the wave finished until AFTER the fact. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been short wave 5 with some time of indicator divergence, only to have the market continue higher and it’s labeling change to some subdivided count. No disrespect to Matt (or Steve) - I have been a loyal member here for maybe 12 years now and find other tools and analyses absolutely invaluable. I’m just very skeptical of Elliot Wave. Seems like it only works in hindsight. 

    The future is rational only

    Posted by timebandit on 7th of May 2026 at 08:26 am

    The future is rational only in hindsight. Period.  That isn’t just true in trading, it is true in life.

    I don’t use Eliot Wave, only understand it enough to do an occasional wave count. In other words, to be dangerous. But I suspect it is like the tools I do use, which merely help me recognize patterns and conditions that help reduce the odds I will lose money. An imperfect model through which to interpret the market.

    All models are wrong, some can be useful.

    Elliot Wave

    Posted by elementsix on 7th of May 2026 at 09:53 am

    Elliot Wave - I think the real benefit of EW is in the macro picture. It's about knowing what Wave you are currently in and what to expect as far as price action during that Wave. Think weekly, not daily.

    We're in Wave 5, Impulsive. Being a little conservative will likely be rewarded. When we get to Wave 1, maybe be more aggressive. That's great macro knowledge to have. It tells as WHAT to expect now and next (but not WHEN). EW is not an everything tool... use it for what it's meant for and rely on a multitude of other indicators.

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