PLEASE READ THIS. I know it is long but, don't be a
goldfish. <--- Click
Wave V (Wave 5)in the Elliott Wave Theory is the
final impulse wave in a five-wave motive (impulse) sequence that
moves in the direction of the larger trend (typically upward in a
bull market). It completes the larger trend before a significant
correction (usually a three-wave ABC pattern) begins.Key
Characteristics of Wave 5
Final Push in the Trend:It represents the last leg
upward (in a bull market) or downward (in a bear market). Prices
reach new highs/lows, but with diminishing strength compared to
Wave 3.
Psychology & Sentiment:
Extreme optimism and bullishness (in an uptrend). News is
almost universally positive.
Late-stage retail investors finally pile in, often at the peak
(the "retail wave").
Euphoria is high, but smart money starts exiting. Bears are
often ridiculed.
Momentum & Technical Signs:
Often shows momentum divergence — price makes a new high, but
indicators (RSI, MACD, etc.) fail to confirm it.
Slower price advance and lower enthusiasm than Wave 3.
Lower volume and narrower market breadth (fewer stocks
participating) than Wave 3.
Can feel "heavy" or labored.
Length & Structure:
Usually shorter and less dynamic than Wave 3.
Often equals the length of Wave 1 (common Fibonacci
relationship).
It subdivides into five smaller waves (like all impulse
waves).
Can be extended (stronger and longer) in some cases, especially
in commodities.
Rules/Guidelines:
Wave 5 should not be the shortest among Waves 1, 3, and 5.
It often ends with a truncation (fails to exceed Wave 3 high)
or throw-over (briefly exceeds channel lines).
Comparison to Wave 3Wave 3 is typically the strongest,
longest, and most powerful.Wave 5 is weaker, more
emotional, and signals exhaustion of the trend.Trading
ImplicationsWave 5 is a high-risk area for new longs (in an
uptrend) because a major reversal often follows. Many traders look
for divergence signals or use Fibonacci targets to project the end
of Wave 5 and prepare for the correction.
Trading ImplicationsWave 5 is a high-risk area for new
longs(in an uptrend) because a major reversal often
follows. Many traders look for divergence signals or use Fibonacci
targets to project the end of Wave 5 and prepare for the
correction.Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and works best when
combined with other technical tools (volume, RSI,
support/resistance, etc.). Wave counting can vary between analysts
until the pattern fully unfolds.
I’m not an Elliot Wave guy by any means and the limited
knowledge I have of it comes from Breakpoint. The issue I’ve found
with the EW analysis lies in the last sentence of your post:
Wave counting can vary between analysts until the pattern
fully unfolds. It seems as if you never know the wave
finished until AFTER the fact. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve
been short wave 5 with some time of indicator divergence, only to
have the market continue higher and it’s labeling change to some
subdivided count. No disrespect to Matt (or Steve) - I have been a
loyal member here for maybe 12 years now and find other tools and
analyses absolutely invaluable. I’m just very skeptical of Elliot
Wave. Seems like it only works in hindsight.
Posted by timebandit on 7th of May 2026 at 08:26 am
The future is rational only in hindsight. Period. That
isn’t just true in trading, it is true in life.
I don’t use Eliot Wave, only understand it enough to do an
occasional wave count. In other words, to be dangerous. But I
suspect it is like the tools I do use, which merely help me
recognize patterns and conditions that help reduce the odds I will
lose money. An imperfect model through which to interpret the
market.
Posted by elementsix on 7th of May 2026 at 09:53 am
Elliot Wave - I think the real benefit of EW is in the macro
picture. It's about knowing what Wave you are currently in and what
to expect as far as price action during that Wave. Think weekly,
not daily.
We're in Wave 5, Impulsive. Being a little conservative will
likely be rewarded. When we get to Wave 1, maybe be more
aggressive. That's great macro knowledge to have. It tells as WHAT
to expect now and next (but not WHEN). EW is not an everything
tool... use it for what it's meant for and rely on a multitude of
other indicators.
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Blow off v move
Posted by auni on 6th of May 2026 at 05:06 pm
QQQ <---- chart
PLEASE READ THIS. I know it is long but, don't be a goldfish. <--- Click
Wave V (Wave 5)in the Elliott Wave Theory is the final impulse wave in a five-wave motive (impulse) sequence that moves in the direction of the larger trend (typically upward in a bull market). It completes the larger trend before a significant correction (usually a three-wave ABC pattern) begins.Key Characteristics of Wave 5
Comparison to Wave 3Wave 3 is typically the strongest, longest, and most powerful.Wave 5 is weaker, more emotional, and signals exhaustion of the trend.Trading ImplicationsWave 5 is a high-risk area for new longs (in an uptrend) because a major reversal often follows. Many traders look for divergence signals or use Fibonacci targets to project the end of Wave 5 and prepare for the correction.
Trading ImplicationsWave 5 is a high-risk area for new longs(in an uptrend) because a major reversal often follows. Many traders look for divergence signals or use Fibonacci targets to project the end of Wave 5 and prepare for the correction.Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and works best when combined with other technical tools (volume, RSI, support/resistance, etc.). Wave counting can vary between analysts until the pattern fully unfolds.
EW
Posted by pep8261 on 7th of May 2026 at 06:48 am
I’m not an Elliot Wave guy by any means and the limited knowledge I have of it comes from Breakpoint. The issue I’ve found with the EW analysis lies in the last sentence of your post: Wave counting can vary between analysts until the pattern fully unfolds. It seems as if you never know the wave finished until AFTER the fact. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been short wave 5 with some time of indicator divergence, only to have the market continue higher and it’s labeling change to some subdivided count. No disrespect to Matt (or Steve) - I have been a loyal member here for maybe 12 years now and find other tools and analyses absolutely invaluable. I’m just very skeptical of Elliot Wave. Seems like it only works in hindsight.
The future is rational only
Posted by timebandit on 7th of May 2026 at 08:26 am
The future is rational only in hindsight. Period. That isn’t just true in trading, it is true in life.
I don’t use Eliot Wave, only understand it enough to do an occasional wave count. In other words, to be dangerous. But I suspect it is like the tools I do use, which merely help me recognize patterns and conditions that help reduce the odds I will lose money. An imperfect model through which to interpret the market.
All models are wrong, some can be useful.
Elliot Wave
Posted by elementsix on 7th of May 2026 at 09:53 am
Elliot Wave - I think the real benefit of EW is in the macro picture. It's about knowing what Wave you are currently in and what to expect as far as price action during that Wave. Think weekly, not daily.
We're in Wave 5, Impulsive. Being a little conservative will likely be rewarded. When we get to Wave 1, maybe be more aggressive. That's great macro knowledge to have. It tells as WHAT to expect now and next (but not WHEN). EW is not an everything tool... use it for what it's meant for and rely on a multitude of other indicators.