Perhaps some retrace through to end of day? I am seeing 5 waves
on the hourlies. But I am about a 1 out of 10 on EW Understanding!
I just went short here but tiny position size
Posted by sschilmeister on 1st of May 2026 at 12:08 pm
I think the tricky part is that it's hard to define the wave
until it's completed... how do we know that 5 you have marked
doesn't keep going to a higher point to complete the 5?
it can sub divide and go higher of course. What you look
for is small time frames, 5 waves for impulse moves, breaks in
symmetry, stuff like that
and also - you don't need to pick the top - HEDGING. as I
stated you might have a shit ton of longs in a non-tax free account
that you don't want to sell for tax purposes, but you are worried
about a pullback soon, so you buy some inverse ETF to hedge those
longs when a pullback does occur. It's not always about
picking these for an exact move or trade setup
again when you start getting overly scared or emotional about
buying an inverse ETF because you've been burned before as the
market was too strong when you bought it when you get too scared to
buy it - when emotions get too high, that's when the market has the
inflection point or soon after
I see it on the mean reversion systems all the time - especially
on the longs when they are buying into a downtrend - people are
okay with it but then after some heat I start getting posts and a
bunch of worried emails about the mean reversion systems buying,
where's the stop, what if the market craters a lot more - I find
people's emotions are like the VIX - when I see a big up spike in
those worried emails - I know a bottom is verry close - seen that
too many times over 20 years. When you can't stand the pain
and are ready to sell, that's probably the bottom or close to it.
so if you find yourself getting a overly emotional
about a trade, the market direction etc - know that probably means
an inflection point soon
Thankyou. Much appreciated. It is the break in symmetry that I
need to add in as a trigger. Will try and incorporate. I hve
a stop in at todays high ~7280 and am eyeing up the broken rising
channel around 7225 to trim. Not the best Risk:Reward so will trail
down if we get to ~7225
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Perhaps some retrace through to
Posted by vimal on 1st of May 2026 at 11:34 am
Perhaps some retrace through to end of day? I am seeing 5 waves on the hourlies. But I am about a 1 out of 10 on EW Understanding! I just went short here but tiny position size
I think the tricky part
Posted by sschilmeister on 1st of May 2026 at 12:08 pm
I think the tricky part is that it's hard to define the wave until it's completed... how do we know that 5 you have marked doesn't keep going to a higher point to complete the 5?
it can sub divide and
Posted by matt on 1st of May 2026 at 12:11 pm
it can sub divide and go higher of course. What you look for is small time frames, 5 waves for impulse moves, breaks in symmetry, stuff like that
and also - you don't need to pick the top - HEDGING. as I stated you might have a shit ton of longs in a non-tax free account that you don't want to sell for tax purposes, but you are worried about a pullback soon, so you buy some inverse ETF to hedge those longs when a pullback does occur. It's not always about picking these for an exact move or trade setup
again when you start getting
Posted by matt on 1st of May 2026 at 12:17 pm
again when you start getting overly scared or emotional about buying an inverse ETF because you've been burned before as the market was too strong when you bought it when you get too scared to buy it - when emotions get too high, that's when the market has the inflection point or soon after
I see it on the mean reversion systems all the time - especially on the longs when they are buying into a downtrend - people are okay with it but then after some heat I start getting posts and a bunch of worried emails about the mean reversion systems buying, where's the stop, what if the market craters a lot more - I find people's emotions are like the VIX - when I see a big up spike in those worried emails - I know a bottom is verry close - seen that too many times over 20 years. When you can't stand the pain and are ready to sell, that's probably the bottom or close to it. so if you find yourself getting a overly emotional about a trade, the market direction etc - know that probably means an inflection point soon
Thankyou. Much appreciated. It is
Posted by vimal on 1st of May 2026 at 12:15 pm
Thankyou. Much appreciated. It is the break in symmetry that I need to add in as a trigger. Will try and incorporate. I hve a stop in at todays high ~7280 and am eyeing up the broken rising channel around 7225 to trim. Not the best Risk:Reward so will trail down if we get to ~7225