However, it is trying to be a bit too exact, claiming a duration
of 15 years every time. For example, the cycle which ended
(actually in 2011) didn't start in 1993 in my opinion. The
Asian Financial Crisis bottomed in 1997, and then the Russian
default was in 1998, those were deeper bottoms than 1993. The
real upside driver of that cycle was the reconstruction of China,
and that kicked off in earnest when China was allowed to join the
WTO, which was after 2000. That upcycle was interrupted by
the US financial crisis, which some Americans prefer to label as
the Global Financial Crisis. However, China actually stepped
on the gas pedal very hard at that time, and so there was a final
rebound to 2011, when it was really over.
I lived [and invested] through that period, saw it first hand
every day. So I wouldn't say it is as precisely rhythmic as
illustrated here, but the basic idea certainly
holds.
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That is indeed a great
Commodities Bull Cycle
Posted by joss22 on 1st of May 2026 at 08:12 am
That is indeed a great chart.
However, it is trying to be a bit too exact, claiming a duration of 15 years every time. For example, the cycle which ended (actually in 2011) didn't start in 1993 in my opinion. The Asian Financial Crisis bottomed in 1997, and then the Russian default was in 1998, those were deeper bottoms than 1993. The real upside driver of that cycle was the reconstruction of China, and that kicked off in earnest when China was allowed to join the WTO, which was after 2000. That upcycle was interrupted by the US financial crisis, which some Americans prefer to label as the Global Financial Crisis. However, China actually stepped on the gas pedal very hard at that time, and so there was a final rebound to 2011, when it was really over.
I lived [and invested] through that period, saw it first hand every day. So I wouldn't say it is as precisely rhythmic as illustrated here, but the basic idea certainly holds.