"The Iran war is sending fertilizer prices through the roof: Urea prices have surged ~+80% to +100% year-to-date across all major benchmarks. Urea is a nitrogen-based fertilizer that must be applied every season and directly affects crop yields and quality.This comes as the Iran war has brought traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill, cutting off ~33% of globally traded urea volumes typically exported from the Gulf. This is because the Middle East represents a massive ~45% of global urea trade, supplying major agricultural importers including India, Europe, and Brazil.India, the world's largest rice producer, recently booked record volumes of urea in a single import tender, paying nearly twice the price it did just 2 months ago.Meanwhile, Western Australia already expects wheat planting area to fall -14% as farmers shift away from fertilizer-intensive crops.Expect global food prices to rise further." 

• CF — Best pure-play nitrogen/urea winner. Biggest leverage to fertilizer spike.

• NTR — Safer diversified ag giant with fertilizer + retail exposure.

• MOS — Potash/phosphate play that could catch up as fertilizer inflation spreads.

• LXU — Small-cap high-beta nitrogen squeeze candidate.

• UAN — Income-heavy nitrogen MLP with massive payout potential in boom cycles.

• TNH — Thin-float fertilizer rocket if nitrogen prices stay extreme.

• YARIY — Global fertilizer heavyweight benefiting from worldwide nitrogen shortages.

• ADM / BG — Secondary food inflation and grain trade beneficiaries.