Posted by sandiegosam on 9th of Apr 2026 at 09:09 am
The SPY has opened above both its 50 and 200 DMA’s while closing
below both the day prior just three other times,
Those three period saw IMMEDIATE declines of -13%, -16%, and
-13% over the next few weeks.
Case 1 April 2001 – 13% decline
Case 2 July 2002 -16% decline
Case 3 May 2008 -13% decline
What do you notice about these dates?
All occurred within conspicuous, undeniable Bear Markets.
Posted by kingpin15 on 9th of Apr 2026 at 09:12 am
otherside....
Rare S&P 500 Gap Higher on Wednesday Suggests a Binary
Outcome.
BTIG Research noted that using
$SPYsince 2003, there have been five prior times when the
intraday low was at least 1.5% above the prior day's intraday high.
In other words, a 'true gap' of at least 1.5%. Of those five
prior occurrences, 4 of the 5 gaps remain unfilled today. The 2009
event filled the gap 7 days later, then rallied meaningfully from
there. Forward returns were higher every time looking out 2, 4, 8
and 12 weeks later. Median 4- and 8-week returns + 6.09% and +9.1%,
respectively.
the 50 200 gap
Posted by sandiegosam on 9th of Apr 2026 at 09:09 am
The SPY has opened above both its 50 and 200 DMA’s while closing below both the day prior just three other times,
Those three period saw IMMEDIATE declines of -13%, -16%, and -13% over the next few weeks.
Case 1 April 2001 – 13% decline
Case 2 July 2002 -16% decline
Case 3 May 2008 -13% decline
What do you notice about these dates?
All occurred within conspicuous, undeniable Bear Markets.
correct and we are not
Posted by matt on 9th of Apr 2026 at 09:48 am
correct and we are not in a bear market
again stats like that with a few data points take with a grain of salt, not a enough data points.
plus wave structure, the structure the market was in is what matters.
Thx !!! good info
Posted by mla127 on 9th of Apr 2026 at 09:31 am
Thx !!! good info
otherside.... Rare S&P 500 Gap Higher
Posted by kingpin15 on 9th of Apr 2026 at 09:12 am
otherside....
Rare S&P 500 Gap Higher on Wednesday Suggests a Binary Outcome.
BTIG Research noted that using $SPYsince 2003, there have been five prior times when the intraday low was at least 1.5% above the prior day's intraday high.
In other words, a 'true gap' of at least 1.5%. Of those five prior occurrences, 4 of the 5 gaps remain unfilled today. The 2009 event filled the gap 7 days later, then rallied meaningfully from there. Forward returns were higher every time looking out 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks later. Median 4- and 8-week returns + 6.09% and +9.1%, respectively.
One of my favorite books…
Posted by mitchell on 9th of Apr 2026 at 09:23 am
One of my favorite books…