I now trade almost exclusively systems and they work out well
(except when the entire market dumps and they mostly stop out).
The one big loss I took with the BPT Pullback/Trend systems that
spooked me out of the market for almost a year was just before the
Covid lockdown (entered Feb 24, 25, 27, 2020). The Call
options basically evaporated in value. Unfortunately, I was
feeling giddy when I entered, putting 2% plus 4% plus 6% (total of
12%) in on consecutive signals--a huge position sizing mistake.
Those positions lost 97%, 90%, and 80% respectively by the time
the systems officially exited on April 24 (see table below).
I exited less than a week after entering (Feb 28, 2020) and
still got hit extremely hard.
To me, there were two big mistakes I made:
a) Sizing far too big with options and following the double-down
entries as SPY went lower without appreciating the cumulative %
captial at-risk.
b) Not understanding the mechanics behind the systematic trade
engine. Without understanding the mechanics, it's difficult
to assess whether the current trading environment is in a blind
spot of the system being traded.
I'm now extremely careful with position sizing and continue to
use Matt's systems (while avoiding options).
Personally, I would like to understand better the mechanics
behind Matt's current systems (to see blind spots and anticipate
impending future signals) but I understand why Matt keeps that info
proprietary. Perhaps he could share some higher level
guidance on how to develop/fine-tune/test our own systems?
Posted by retirefire on 16th of Mar 2026 at 07:07 pm
I remember those system trades. I went in hard with options just
in time for the wave B bounce. Sold with a big profit. I tend to
over protect big gains... especially after being in the
RED.
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I now trade almost exclusively
CCI 2nd entry, trust it
Posted by rojoch on 16th of Mar 2026 at 06:15 pm
I now trade almost exclusively systems and they work out well (except when the entire market dumps and they mostly stop out).
The one big loss I took with the BPT Pullback/Trend systems that spooked me out of the market for almost a year was just before the Covid lockdown (entered Feb 24, 25, 27, 2020). The Call options basically evaporated in value. Unfortunately, I was feeling giddy when I entered, putting 2% plus 4% plus 6% (total of 12%) in on consecutive signals--a huge position sizing mistake.
Those positions lost 97%, 90%, and 80% respectively by the time the systems officially exited on April 24 (see table below). I exited less than a week after entering (Feb 28, 2020) and still got hit extremely hard.
To me, there were two big mistakes I made:
a) Sizing far too big with options and following the double-down entries as SPY went lower without appreciating the cumulative % captial at-risk.
b) Not understanding the mechanics behind the systematic trade engine. Without understanding the mechanics, it's difficult to assess whether the current trading environment is in a blind spot of the system being traded.
I'm now extremely careful with position sizing and continue to use Matt's systems (while avoiding options).
Personally, I would like to understand better the mechanics behind Matt's current systems (to see blind spots and anticipate impending future signals) but I understand why Matt keeps that info proprietary. Perhaps he could share some higher level guidance on how to develop/fine-tune/test our own systems?
Systems
Posted by retirefire on 16th of Mar 2026 at 07:07 pm
I remember those system trades. I went in hard with options just in time for the wave B bounce. Sold with a big profit. I tend to over protect big gains... especially after being in the RED.