My biggest regret is not following all the SPY trades over the
years. I do now. The stats speak for themselves.
Trust them and check your emotions at the door and pick them
up after the trade closes out.
Posted by mitchell on 14th of Mar 2026 at 09:38 am
No secret that key to being a successful trader long term is to
weigh evidence and formulate your own probabilities (as Steve would
generally say). Systems here have given plenty of bad trades in
downturns and thats all it takes to lose your shirt. For ex, I
rarely take system trades outside up trends anymore unless a 3rd
entry and find the Trend models to be least reliable/early. I
have my own models / system and like to view in aggregate;
personally i wouldnt just buy b/c one 'system' says so, but that
works for me. Find your style.
again systems are not for everyone and everyone has their own
style and should. But a few things I disagree with here. and NO
your comment about plenty of systems have taken bad trades in
downtrends - not the mean reversion systems. Again I think
most need to be careful about trying to use subjective analysis
when trading systems - you should follow the systems or not. Heck
even Steve has said that many times, if you are going to trade the
systems stick with them. Maybe you are referring to KISS systems -
trend following systems have lower winning %'s than mean reversion,
it's part of the game. Also you had a subscription to KISS systems
for 2 months, that's 2 months, maybe you had a a couple losing
trades during those months - which is NOT enough time to judge
those by - just by chance you might have picked a few things that
were not moving or stopped out and stopped just before they caught
a big trend move - trend follow you tend to get 60% winning trades,
so you get a lot lof of small losers but then it catches a 50% or
100% plus move that makes up for those small whipsaw trades - maybe
you took some of the whipsaw trades and stopped before it caught
big trend moves.
The point is, I have no idea what you did, but 2 months is
worthless to even make a judgement - and again those have nothing
to do with mean reversion.
1. Brining up Steve and systems and Steve is sort of nonsense.
Steve was not a system trader, he never traded systems, and if he
took a system trade like a mean reversion more often than not he
would exit early based on his own subjective analysis. He was
never a systems trader, using his name with systems is pointless.
But even Steve had said before folks who decide to trade the
systems should follow the system, and not overly deviate unless
they are really really adept, a system is a system for a reason
-he's stated that on multiple occasions, follow it.
2. One is not blowing up his/her account on mean reversion
systems unless they are doing stupid shit like trading 100% of
their entire account with leverage and futures and way out of the
money options. What's a bad mean reversion system trade here?
-4%? -6%? I think we had a -9% one time and that was
maybe a 1st entry whereas 2nd and 3rd entries made up for that and
other systems that went long. That CCI system the max
drawdown outside of 2008 was 4.5%, which wasn't a losing trade that
actually went on to make money. In Oct 2008 the first entry had
a 16% max draw down - but that trade went on to make 1.3%.
5%. and 11.2% on 1st, 2nd and 3rd entry it didn't close down 16%.
And 16% is not blowing up one's account, which again that
trade made money didn't lose 16%, was down at the very low that
amount only to rebound, that trade made 1.3% on 1st entry 5% on 2nd
entry and 11.3% on 3rd entry. Again folks following mean reversion
system trades are not blowing accounts up if they are following a
plan, not doing crazy stuff.
3. folks who are not trading the systems should generally
refrain from putting in too much of their 2 cents since they are
not trading them and distracts from folks who are.
I now trade almost exclusively systems and they work out well
(except when the entire market dumps and they mostly stop out).
The one big loss I took with the BPT Pullback/Trend systems that
spooked me out of the market for almost a year was just before the
Covid lockdown (entered Feb 24, 25, 27, 2020). The Call
options basically evaporated in value. Unfortunately, I was
feeling giddy when I entered, putting 2% plus 4% plus 6% (total of
12%) in on consecutive signals--a huge position sizing mistake.
Those positions lost 97%, 90%, and 80% respectively by the time
the systems officially exited on April 24 (see table below).
I exited less than a week after entering (Feb 28, 2020) and
still got hit extremely hard.
To me, there were two big mistakes I made:
a) Sizing far too big with options and following the double-down
entries as SPY went lower without appreciating the cumulative %
captial at-risk.
b) Not understanding the mechanics behind the systematic trade
engine. Without understanding the mechanics, it's difficult
to assess whether the current trading environment is in a blind
spot of the system being traded.
I'm now extremely careful with position sizing and continue to
use Matt's systems (while avoiding options).
Personally, I would like to understand better the mechanics
behind Matt's current systems (to see blind spots and anticipate
impending future signals) but I understand why Matt keeps that info
proprietary. Perhaps he could share some higher level
guidance on how to develop/fine-tune/test our own systems?
Posted by retirefire on 16th of Mar 2026 at 07:07 pm
I remember those system trades. I went in hard with options just
in time for the wave B bounce. Sold with a big profit. I tend to
over protect big gains... especially after being in the
RED.
I think it is great that you have a system that you use in
conjunction with the BPT systems. However, many of us just don't
have that expertise or confidence and that's where BPT systems come
in. The bottom line is that we are responsible for our trades, no
one else. Do what works for you and allows you to sleep at
night.
As a long-time member here, the biggest lesson I’ve learned is
to trust the systems. Every time I’ve let emotions override the
rules, I’ve regretted it.
I get torn. My gut says follow the systems, and for the
most part I do, but then what to do when Matt says don't follow the
systems and closes trades "manually"? This is why I have
asked for an additional email for the technical systems that only
contains the trade details 100% of the time.
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CCI 2nd entry, trust it
Posted by bk1976 on 13th of Mar 2026 at 05:22 pm
My biggest regret is not following all the SPY trades over the years. I do now. The stats speak for themselves. Trust them and check your emotions at the door and pick them up after the trade closes out.
Another vouch for trusting in
Posted by alvinjm27 on 13th of Mar 2026 at 07:39 pm
Another vouch for trusting in the system. So many times of going rogue out of fear but would have been better off following the system
No secret that key to
Posted by mitchell on 14th of Mar 2026 at 09:38 am
No secret that key to being a successful trader long term is to weigh evidence and formulate your own probabilities (as Steve would generally say). Systems here have given plenty of bad trades in downturns and thats all it takes to lose your shirt. For ex, I rarely take system trades outside up trends anymore unless a 3rd entry and find the Trend models to be least reliable/early. I have my own models / system and like to view in aggregate; personally i wouldnt just buy b/c one 'system' says so, but that works for me. Find your style.
again systems are not for
Posted by matt on 14th of Mar 2026 at 09:56 pm
again systems are not for everyone and everyone has their own style and should. But a few things I disagree with here. and NO your comment about plenty of systems have taken bad trades in downtrends - not the mean reversion systems. Again I think most need to be careful about trying to use subjective analysis when trading systems - you should follow the systems or not. Heck even Steve has said that many times, if you are going to trade the systems stick with them. Maybe you are referring to KISS systems - trend following systems have lower winning %'s than mean reversion, it's part of the game. Also you had a subscription to KISS systems for 2 months, that's 2 months, maybe you had a a couple losing trades during those months - which is NOT enough time to judge those by - just by chance you might have picked a few things that were not moving or stopped out and stopped just before they caught a big trend move - trend follow you tend to get 60% winning trades, so you get a lot lof of small losers but then it catches a 50% or 100% plus move that makes up for those small whipsaw trades - maybe you took some of the whipsaw trades and stopped before it caught big trend moves.
The point is, I have no idea what you did, but 2 months is worthless to even make a judgement - and again those have nothing to do with mean reversion.
1. Brining up Steve and systems and Steve is sort of nonsense. Steve was not a system trader, he never traded systems, and if he took a system trade like a mean reversion more often than not he would exit early based on his own subjective analysis. He was never a systems trader, using his name with systems is pointless. But even Steve had said before folks who decide to trade the systems should follow the system, and not overly deviate unless they are really really adept, a system is a system for a reason -he's stated that on multiple occasions, follow it.
2. One is not blowing up his/her account on mean reversion systems unless they are doing stupid shit like trading 100% of their entire account with leverage and futures and way out of the money options. What's a bad mean reversion system trade here? -4%? -6%? I think we had a -9% one time and that was maybe a 1st entry whereas 2nd and 3rd entries made up for that and other systems that went long. That CCI system the max drawdown outside of 2008 was 4.5%, which wasn't a losing trade that actually went on to make money. In Oct 2008 the first entry had a 16% max draw down - but that trade went on to make 1.3%. 5%. and 11.2% on 1st, 2nd and 3rd entry it didn't close down 16%. And 16% is not blowing up one's account, which again that trade made money didn't lose 16%, was down at the very low that amount only to rebound, that trade made 1.3% on 1st entry 5% on 2nd entry and 11.3% on 3rd entry. Again folks following mean reversion system trades are not blowing accounts up if they are following a plan, not doing crazy stuff.
3. folks who are not trading the systems should generally refrain from putting in too much of their 2 cents since they are not trading them and distracts from folks who are.
I now trade almost exclusively
Posted by rojoch on 16th of Mar 2026 at 06:15 pm
I now trade almost exclusively systems and they work out well (except when the entire market dumps and they mostly stop out).
The one big loss I took with the BPT Pullback/Trend systems that spooked me out of the market for almost a year was just before the Covid lockdown (entered Feb 24, 25, 27, 2020). The Call options basically evaporated in value. Unfortunately, I was feeling giddy when I entered, putting 2% plus 4% plus 6% (total of 12%) in on consecutive signals--a huge position sizing mistake.
Those positions lost 97%, 90%, and 80% respectively by the time the systems officially exited on April 24 (see table below). I exited less than a week after entering (Feb 28, 2020) and still got hit extremely hard.
To me, there were two big mistakes I made:
a) Sizing far too big with options and following the double-down entries as SPY went lower without appreciating the cumulative % captial at-risk.
b) Not understanding the mechanics behind the systematic trade engine. Without understanding the mechanics, it's difficult to assess whether the current trading environment is in a blind spot of the system being traded.
I'm now extremely careful with position sizing and continue to use Matt's systems (while avoiding options).
Personally, I would like to understand better the mechanics behind Matt's current systems (to see blind spots and anticipate impending future signals) but I understand why Matt keeps that info proprietary. Perhaps he could share some higher level guidance on how to develop/fine-tune/test our own systems?
Systems
Posted by retirefire on 16th of Mar 2026 at 07:07 pm
I remember those system trades. I went in hard with options just in time for the wave B bounce. Sold with a big profit. I tend to over protect big gains... especially after being in the RED.
I think it is great
Posted by kab34 on 14th of Mar 2026 at 09:57 am
I think it is great that you have a system that you use in conjunction with the BPT systems. However, many of us just don't have that expertise or confidence and that's where BPT systems come in. The bottom line is that we are responsible for our trades, no one else. Do what works for you and allows you to sleep at night.
As a long-time member here,
Posted by kab34 on 13th of Mar 2026 at 06:51 pm
As a long-time member here, the biggest lesson I’ve learned is to trust the systems. Every time I’ve let emotions override the rules, I’ve regretted it.
I get torn. My
Posted by z0ned on 13th of Apr 2026 at 05:45 pm
I get torn. My gut says follow the systems, and for the most part I do, but then what to do when Matt says don't follow the systems and closes trades "manually"? This is why I have asked for an additional email for the technical systems that only contains the trade details 100% of the time.