Posted by kingpin15 on 7th of Jan 2026 at 01:45 pm
XLE weekly screams false b/o. not sure it corrects so quick up.
Venezuela’s self-reported crude oil reserves tripled from
around 100 billion barrels in the early 2000s to 300 billion
barrels in the late 2000s due to the reclassification of Orinoco
Belt heavy oil as “proved,” see the first chart below. Much of the
oil is extra-heavy, which has low recovery and a high cost to
produce. There was no large new discovery or production increase to
justify a tripling of reserves through exploration alone
Yeah, every time XLE has had a decent up day, it's followed soon
thereafter by a big down day. That being said, on the weekly chart
we can't say anything yet since the candle has not completed. If
for some reason it closes near its open, it will have a long tail
(bullish).
Fyi...their heavy crude is what US refiners are familiar with
and want; Russia other country that refines it, which is likely why
US securing these reserves. Monthly XLE looks quite
bullish...Volatility goes w/ territory but Ive been buying this
space. Most related stocks look similar.
Canadian heavy crude has very similar properties ... and
replaced a big part of what was sanctioned from Venezuela through
crude by rail ... the biggest looser overtime on this will
be the big Canadian oil companies (beside China & Russia
of course
) ... it will be cheaper and easier to
bring back that Venezuelan heavy in the gulf area than using WCS
... they will still be the major supplier in the midwest, that
won't change ...
XOM / CVX had facilities there; were nationalized yrs ago; sued
for claim. They will have 1st right to recoup losses and highly
likely have large influence in recent events and going forward.
Those charts, as Matt has shown, look swell. I mentioned in a
previous post that Buffett is typically moves ahead in strategy and
he has positioned BRK accordingly in this space. Again, volatility
comes w/ territory though.
XLE weekly screams false b/o.
Posted by kingpin15 on 7th of Jan 2026 at 01:45 pm
XLE weekly screams false b/o. not sure it corrects so quick up.
Venezuela’s self-reported crude oil reserves tripled from around 100 billion barrels in the early 2000s to 300 billion barrels in the late 2000s due to the reclassification of Orinoco Belt heavy oil as “proved,” see the first chart below. Much of the oil is extra-heavy, which has low recovery and a high cost to produce. There was no large new discovery or production increase to justify a tripling of reserves through exploration alone
Yeah, every time XLE has
Posted by frtaylor on 7th of Jan 2026 at 03:45 pm
Yeah, every time XLE has had a decent up day, it's followed soon thereafter by a big down day. That being said, on the weekly chart we can't say anything yet since the candle has not completed. If for some reason it closes near its open, it will have a long tail (bullish).
yeah it can be a
Posted by matt on 7th of Jan 2026 at 03:48 pm
yeah it can be a bitch, plus it's like pissing into the wind when crude is so weak
that NBR has been strong this week though up 9,8%, one I discussed on weekend with that nice weekly base
Fyi...their heavy crude is what
Posted by mitchell on 7th of Jan 2026 at 02:16 pm
Fyi...their heavy crude is what US refiners are familiar with and want; Russia other country that refines it, which is likely why US securing these reserves. Monthly XLE looks quite bullish...Volatility goes w/ territory but Ive been buying this space. Most related stocks look similar.
Canadian heavy crude has very
Posted by mla127 on 7th of Jan 2026 at 02:44 pm
Canadian heavy crude has very similar properties ... and replaced a big part of what was sanctioned from Venezuela through crude by rail ... the biggest looser overtime on this will be the big Canadian oil companies (beside China & Russia of course ) ... it will be cheaper and easier to bring back that Venezuelan heavy in the gulf area than using WCS ... they will still be the major supplier in the midwest, that won't change ...
what refiners would you recommend
Posted by kingpin15 on 7th of Jan 2026 at 02:21 pm
what refiners would you recommend that are in this space or will establish territory easily ?
XOM / CVX had facilities
Posted by mitchell on 7th of Jan 2026 at 02:28 pm
XOM / CVX had facilities there; were nationalized yrs ago; sued for claim. They will have 1st right to recoup losses and highly likely have large influence in recent events and going forward. Those charts, as Matt has shown, look swell. I mentioned in a previous post that Buffett is typically moves ahead in strategy and he has positioned BRK accordingly in this space. Again, volatility comes w/ territory though.
Really smart people on this
Posted by Sammy2008 on 7th of Jan 2026 at 02:39 pm
Really smart people on this forum. Thanks all for your input.
VLO, Marathon are tops
Posted by shellson2 on 7th of Jan 2026 at 02:22 pm
VLO, Marathon are tops
Very well stated and the
Posted by rbreese on 7th of Jan 2026 at 02:07 pm
Very well stated and the action in the Big Oil companies confirms your thoughts.