The software group looks a bit precarious. Each day now I
try to look at what the Daily KISS sell signals were in general to
see if I can get information out of it. Yesterday the Daily
KISS sells included MSFT, PATH, and SOUN. I then looked at
the XSW ETF to see how the chart looked (MSFT, PATH, and SOUN are
all included in that ETF).
XSW ETF: "XSW (SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF) is an
exchange-traded fund that focuses specifically on U.S. software and
software-related services companies. Instead of being dominated by
a few mega-cap names, it uses an equal-weight approach, which gives
smaller and mid-size software firms meaningful representation
alongside larger ones. The result is a fund that tracks the overall
health and trend of the software sector itself, rather than just
the performance of giants like Microsoft, making XSW more sensitive
to broad software industry cycles, innovation trends, and
risk-on/risk-off shifts within tech."
Even though the ETF volume is modest (like 20,000 shares a day),
the premium/discount to NAV looks ok and it has $400 mil. in AUM.
It is also a State Street ETF and the ETF inception year was
2011.
To me the
Daily Chart looks toppy, not a downtrend yet but directionless and
perhaps in a transition phase.
The other ETF, IGV, has much more volume but it is market-cap
weighted (less informational value to me vs. looking at an equal
weighted measurement when gauging the underlying health of the
software group). The IGV is in the KISS but is just above its
Daily KISS STS level.
I searched for XSW and IGV and it hasn't been mentioned lately
on this forum (XSW never has been mentioned) so I figured I would
highlight this group.
Software sector
XSWcontinues to look weak- I haven't updated my
chart since mid December and it is looking even more pronounced
like a topping pattern. I would start changing my mind on a
weekly close above around 192.
I haven't been posting because I've been dealing with personal
matters but here's my thread from mid December about the Software
sector which is currently being destroyed by Claude AI (Schumper's
Creative Destruction). That head and shoulders topping
pattern is now very apparent.
hi Paul, imo, they all should be considered as a "weight of the
evidence" approach. It's ok to have a lot of indicators as
long as not all of them are collinear:
I consider all of them but realize that not all of them have to
check out perfectly in order to make my trading decision. The
markets are a "noisy" model. It is certainly not black or
white, but gray.
Posted by mammon531 on 16th of Dec 2025 at 02:02 pm
Thank you Eric, posts like this that highlight and inform are
very helpful to me given I do not have a lot of trading experience.
The best value I get out of these type of posts is
understanding how the different sectors and etf's are interrelated,
and, the process used to make more holistic approach to the market.
Many thanks.
QBTS, RGTI
Posted by matt on 16th of Dec 2025 at 09:44 am
QBTS quantum - D-Wave Quantum Inc. - Chart Link
RGTI quantum - Rigetti Computing, Inc. - Chart Link
The software group looks a
Posted by EricK on 16th of Dec 2025 at 12:59 pm
The software group looks a bit precarious. Each day now I try to look at what the Daily KISS sell signals were in general to see if I can get information out of it. Yesterday the Daily KISS sells included MSFT, PATH, and SOUN. I then looked at the XSW ETF to see how the chart looked (MSFT, PATH, and SOUN are all included in that ETF).
XSW ETF : "XSW (SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF) is an exchange-traded fund that focuses specifically on U.S. software and software-related services companies. Instead of being dominated by a few mega-cap names, it uses an equal-weight approach, which gives smaller and mid-size software firms meaningful representation alongside larger ones. The result is a fund that tracks the overall health and trend of the software sector itself, rather than just the performance of giants like Microsoft, making XSW more sensitive to broad software industry cycles, innovation trends, and risk-on/risk-off shifts within tech."
Even though the ETF volume is modest (like 20,000 shares a day), the premium/discount to NAV looks ok and it has $400 mil. in AUM. It is also a State Street ETF and the ETF inception year was 2011.
To me the Daily Chart looks toppy, not a downtrend yet but directionless and perhaps in a transition phase.
The other ETF, IGV, has much more volume but it is market-cap weighted (less informational value to me vs. looking at an equal weighted measurement when gauging the underlying health of the software group). The IGV is in the KISS but is just above its Daily KISS STS level.
I searched for XSW and IGV and it hasn't been mentioned lately on this forum (XSW never has been mentioned) so I figured I would highlight this group.
software sector (XSW)
Posted by EricK on 2nd of Jan 2026 at 09:45 am
XSW continues to look weak after my post on 12/16/25
Software sector XSW continues to look
Posted by EricK on 14th of Jan 2026 at 12:52 pm
Software sector XSW continues to look weak- I haven't updated my chart since mid December and it is looking even more pronounced like a topping pattern. I would start changing my mind on a weekly close above around 192.
Software sector
Posted by EricK on 4th of Feb 2026 at 09:50 am
I haven't been posting because I've been dealing with personal matters but here's my thread from mid December about the Software sector which is currently being destroyed by Claude AI (Schumper's Creative Destruction). That head and shoulders topping pattern is now very apparent.
Erik - there are so
Posted by pmahoney on 14th of Jan 2026 at 12:56 pm
Erik - there are so many indicators on this chart, I'm not sure what we should be focusing in on. Thanks Paul
hi Paul, imo, they all
Posted by EricK on 14th of Jan 2026 at 01:05 pm
hi Paul, imo, they all should be considered as a "weight of the evidence" approach. It's ok to have a lot of indicators as long as not all of them are collinear:
https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/467963/
I consider all of them but realize that not all of them have to check out perfectly in order to make my trading decision. The markets are a "noisy" model. It is certainly not black or white, but gray.
Thanks Eric! I didn't see
Posted by pmahoney on 14th of Jan 2026 at 01:41 pm
Thanks Eric! I didn't see that post back then.
Thank you Eric, posts like
Posted by mammon531 on 16th of Dec 2025 at 02:02 pm
Thank you Eric, posts like this that highlight and inform are very helpful to me given I do not have a lot of trading experience. The best value I get out of these type of posts is understanding how the different sectors and etf's are interrelated, and, the process used to make more holistic approach to the market. Many thanks.
Thanks for the lesson Erick
Posted by kevinkim9600 on 16th of Dec 2025 at 01:31 pm
Thanks for the lesson Erick