ORCL - Chart Linktested 200 MA last week, has
had a nice correction from the earnings high, that said, no
divergences and that debt to equity is a huge concern 550%!
When a company buys back and cancels shares, it reduces common
equity. That can make debt:equity look large, because the
equity left on the B/S is small.
A better metric of a company's ability to carry debt is net
debt: EBITDA. Net debt nets out the cash on the B/S with the
debt, and then compares it with a measure of gross margin.
On average, one wants net debt:EBITDA to be less than approximately
3x. A safe level varies according to things like the
cyclicality of the specific company, the strength of supporting
measures etc.
In FY2024, apple had net debt of $50 bn, and EBITDA of $
135 bn. So net debt:EBITDA of 0.37. Nothing to be
concerned about.
There are even some companies with negative common equity.
For example, some consumer companies like Philip Morris.
It generates lots of cash flow and has bought back so many
shares over the years that it's common equity is negative. So
it's debt:equity would be infinite. Is this a red flag?
Not in my book!
For ORCL, the historical numbers might not tell you very much,
because they are planning to significantly ramp up both capex and
borrowing over the coming years. So the concern is about the
[economics of the business in the] future.
Let's look at the street's forecasts for FY2028. ORCL has
a May year end, so that would be 2027 for some people. The
average forecast for net debt and EBITDA gives us a net debt:EBITDA
of about 2.4x. At first glance it could be manageable,
putting aside for a moment the motivations of sell-side analysts,
which, let's say tends to influence their estimates.
But one wants to consider, among other factors, what kind of
assets are on the B/S, and their ability to generate cash flow.
In this case, they are data centers filled with GPUs.
What is the productive life of a GPU? Well, I think
that it was earlier this year that during an Nvidia AI conference,
Jensen quipped that with the launch of the newer and more
powerful Blackwell GPUs, “when Blackwell starts shipping in
volume, you couldn't give Hoppers away,” suggesting jokingly that
the older Hopper GPUs might have so little value they'd be
difficult to dispose of even for free. (I saw that as a
very rare foot-in-the-mouth moment for Jensen.) Perhaps they
could be used for inference, but I would guess that not many
hyperscalers would still use them for training. That would
imply that their ability to generate cash flow could be
significantly impaired. And that is over just 2 years.
OTOH also relevant for consideration is that most hyperscalers
still have a depreciation period for their servers of 5-6 years.
Although if their auditors are listening to Jensen perhaps
that will have to change.
that's not direct debt as you point out. Now ORCL has
issues, it's why the stock has come down so far from the Sept
earnings gap. there's no comparison of AAPL to ORCL LOL
ORCL and AI earning shell game - ORCL 550% Debt to Equity, blows anything from the others
Posted by matt on 16th of Nov 2025 at 05:06 pm
ORCL - Chart Linktested 200 MA last week, has had a nice correction from the earnings high, that said, no divergences and that debt to equity is a huge concern 550%!
How does AAPL have that
Posted by pep8261 on 17th of Nov 2025 at 09:25 am
How does AAPL have that much debt?
> How does AAPL have
Posted by joss22 on 17th of Nov 2025 at 11:23 am
> How does AAPL have that much debt?
It doesn't.
When a company buys back and cancels shares, it reduces common equity. That can make debt:equity look large, because the equity left on the B/S is small.
A better metric of a company's ability to carry debt is net debt: EBITDA. Net debt nets out the cash on the B/S with the debt, and then compares it with a measure of gross margin. On average, one wants net debt:EBITDA to be less than approximately 3x. A safe level varies according to things like the cyclicality of the specific company, the strength of supporting measures etc.
In FY2024, apple had net debt of $50 bn, and EBITDA of $ 135 bn. So net debt:EBITDA of 0.37. Nothing to be concerned about.
There are even some companies with negative common equity. For example, some consumer companies like Philip Morris. It generates lots of cash flow and has bought back so many shares over the years that it's common equity is negative. So it's debt:equity would be infinite. Is this a red flag? Not in my book!
Thanks for the color!
Posted by pep8261 on 17th of Nov 2025 at 12:27 pm
Thanks for the color!
Thanks joss for that explanation.
Posted by rmoore100 on 17th of Nov 2025 at 11:27 am
Thanks joss for that explanation. Do you also have a calculation for ORCL ? Is it under 3x for Net debt ?
> Do you also have
Posted by joss22 on 17th of Nov 2025 at 12:24 pm
> Do you also have a calculation for ORCL ?
For ORCL, the historical numbers might not tell you very much, because they are planning to significantly ramp up both capex and borrowing over the coming years. So the concern is about the [economics of the business in the] future.
Let's look at the street's forecasts for FY2028. ORCL has a May year end, so that would be 2027 for some people. The average forecast for net debt and EBITDA gives us a net debt:EBITDA of about 2.4x. At first glance it could be manageable, putting aside for a moment the motivations of sell-side analysts, which, let's say tends to influence their estimates.
But one wants to consider, among other factors, what kind of assets are on the B/S, and their ability to generate cash flow. In this case, they are data centers filled with GPUs. What is the productive life of a GPU? Well, I think that it was earlier this year that during an Nvidia AI conference, Jensen quipped that with the launch of the newer and more powerful Blackwell GPUs, “when Blackwell starts shipping in volume, you couldn't give Hoppers away,” suggesting jokingly that the older Hopper GPUs might have so little value they'd be difficult to dispose of even for free. (I saw that as a very rare foot-in-the-mouth moment for Jensen.) Perhaps they could be used for inference, but I would guess that not many hyperscalers would still use them for training. That would imply that their ability to generate cash flow could be significantly impaired. And that is over just 2 years.
OTOH also relevant for consideration is that most hyperscalers still have a depreciation period for their servers of 5-6 years. Although if their auditors are listening to Jensen perhaps that will have to change.
that's not direct debt as
Posted by matt on 17th of Nov 2025 at 11:26 am
that's not direct debt as you point out. Now ORCL has issues, it's why the stock has come down so far from the Sept earnings gap. there's no comparison of AAPL to ORCL LOL
Given all this, has your
Posted by Soldtoosoon on 16th of Nov 2025 at 10:42 pm
Given all this, has your longer term view of CRWV changed?