As you know UPS has been declining for 4 years, has lost roughly
60% of its value. It's now in a weekly demand zone with some MACD
divergence. It also now pays a 7.5% dividend.
I know the fundamental reasons that have been plaguing UPS such
as competition from AMZN and losing share, but can anyone make a
fundamental case for an eventual bottom here?
I ask because the weekly chart is setup now or at least in a
long term support after 4 years of decline - could be a Matt's
Macro if we could make a good fundamental case to support the long
term chart bottoming in here
otherwise short-term the daily has given a nice trade off the
daily base
on UPS the thing is, it's so hated, everyone has reason why it's
gonna go down, etc. But the thing is, that's when bottoms
tend to form when everyone hates it, when all the
fundamental reasons out there tend to confirm
recently INTC was like this earlier in the year, hated, it's
gonna go out of business, it's gonna sell its assets etc now look
at it
UNH was like this earlier in the year too, TSLA early in the
year as well
So I don't know what it will be, but my guess is that in the
future there will be some news item that justifies bottom -
I've seen it too many times over 20 and 30 years. Again
only reason I'm even thinking about it is because of the charts
being at or near a big support zone.
if it was some small cap stock, then yeah could easily go out of
business, but UPS doesn't fit that category
I thought the same thing with Peabody Energy (BTU) under
Obama.
Were supposed to be best in coal space. Then they filed for
bankruptcy. Management didn't have much ownership in the company
and made out much better under the revised company.
UPS weekly chart and question for your guys
Posted by matt on 20th of Oct 2025 at 10:20 am
As you know UPS has been declining for 4 years, has lost roughly 60% of its value. It's now in a weekly demand zone with some MACD divergence. It also now pays a 7.5% dividend.
I know the fundamental reasons that have been plaguing UPS such as competition from AMZN and losing share, but can anyone make a fundamental case for an eventual bottom here?
I ask because the weekly chart is setup now or at least in a long term support after 4 years of decline - could be a Matt's Macro if we could make a good fundamental case to support the long term chart bottoming in here
otherwise short-term the daily has given a nice trade off the daily base
high probability UPS cuts dividend
Posted by mitchell on 20th of Oct 2025 at 10:25 am
high probability UPS cuts dividend at some pt to maintain historical payout ratio, which may lead to volatility.
on UPS the thing is,
Posted by matt on 20th of Oct 2025 at 04:08 pm
on UPS the thing is, it's so hated, everyone has reason why it's gonna go down, etc. But the thing is, that's when bottoms tend to form when everyone hates it, when all the fundamental reasons out there tend to confirm
recently INTC was like this earlier in the year, hated, it's gonna go out of business, it's gonna sell its assets etc now look at it
UNH was like this earlier in the year too, TSLA early in the year as well
So I don't know what it will be, but my guess is that in the future there will be some news item that justifies bottom - I've seen it too many times over 20 and 30 years. Again only reason I'm even thinking about it is because of the charts being at or near a big support zone.
if it was some small cap stock, then yeah could easily go out of business, but UPS doesn't fit that category
I thought the same thing
Posted by oatdust on 20th of Oct 2025 at 07:21 pm
I thought the same thing with Peabody Energy (BTU) under Obama.
Were supposed to be best in coal space. Then they filed for bankruptcy. Management didn't have much ownership in the company and made out much better under the revised company.
that is way I see
Posted by srusso1 on 20th of Oct 2025 at 10:41 am
that is way I see it but I did take a very small position . UPS
CBP and UPS are like
Posted by srusso1 on 20th of Oct 2025 at 11:00 am
CBP and UPS are like Dogs of the Dow to me. Moving averages are spread pretty wide to the downside and yes they could go to 0 that is why I go small.
doubt they go to zero,
Posted by matt on 20th of Oct 2025 at 12:39 pm
doubt they go to zero, not some micro crap pink sheet BB stocks
Matt One of the order flow
Posted by Sammy2008 on 21st of Oct 2025 at 06:24 am
Matt
One of the order flow guys I follow ( Tictoc) posted few months ago UPS could go to 70.fwiw