yep close outside upper BB's one day, close back outside the
next, close back inside, then outside. that's what it's been
doing, but yes big down candle today for sure
Posted by patellee on 17th of Oct 2025 at 06:22 pm
I don't think so. It was still an inside week, which shows
me indecision and rebalancing after last Friday's big move.
As Matt said, next week will decide if this Wave 4 is over.
The bull case, zooming out, is that the weekly trend line
held.
The indecisive case, on the 1 hour chart, is we are coiling and
I count 4 waves; so reaction up here will be telling.
FWIW, I'm still holding shorts as a hedge. The vix is
at a support level. Usually under 20 tells me things are
stabilizing. Above 20 is wild card. So next week tells
me if this pull back is like the August one (i.e. done) or like the
April one (i.e. more to go).
To me, in order for Wave 4 to be done we need to pull back into
the area I marked in green (so roughly 6400) and that's where I'll
take my hedge off. I'd love to see a wash out vs this
somewhat orderly action.
I attached some charts to share my thoughts. Anyway, my
two cents.
Posted by patellee on 20th of Oct 2025 at 11:04 am
FWIW I took off my hedges this morning. VIX looks like
it's back to resting under 20 and we broke above that coiling
pattern decisively. With the weekly trend line holding either
this Wave 3 has more to go or the Wave 4 was completed.
Didn't want to hold any shorts into earnings season.
vix destroyed
Posted by pep8261 on 17th of Oct 2025 at 03:55 pm
vix destroyed
yep close outside upper BB's
Posted by matt on 17th of Oct 2025 at 03:57 pm
yep close outside upper BB's one day, close back outside the next, close back inside, then outside. that's what it's been doing, but yes big down candle today for sure
Today’s candle seems like a
Posted by Sammy2008 on 17th of Oct 2025 at 05:16 pm
Today’s candle seems like a change in trend. But who knows. It’s still over 20. So risk is still there.
But what stands out is SPX QQQ closed solid green for the week.
I don't think so. It
Posted by patellee on 17th of Oct 2025 at 06:22 pm
I don't think so. It was still an inside week, which shows me indecision and rebalancing after last Friday's big move. As Matt said, next week will decide if this Wave 4 is over.
The bull case, zooming out, is that the weekly trend line held.
The indecisive case, on the 1 hour chart, is we are coiling and I count 4 waves; so reaction up here will be telling.
FWIW, I'm still holding shorts as a hedge. The vix is at a support level. Usually under 20 tells me things are stabilizing. Above 20 is wild card. So next week tells me if this pull back is like the August one (i.e. done) or like the April one (i.e. more to go).
To me, in order for Wave 4 to be done we need to pull back into the area I marked in green (so roughly 6400) and that's where I'll take my hedge off. I'd love to see a wash out vs this somewhat orderly action.
I attached some charts to share my thoughts. Anyway, my two cents.
FWIW I took off my
Posted by patellee on 20th of Oct 2025 at 11:04 am
FWIW I took off my hedges this morning. VIX looks like it's back to resting under 20 and we broke above that coiling pattern decisively. With the weekly trend line holding either this Wave 3 has more to go or the Wave 4 was completed. Didn't want to hold any shorts into earnings season.
Yeah, glad I didn't take
Posted by mastermind on 20th of Oct 2025 at 12:19 pm
Yeah, glad I didn't take the STS buy on UVXY. That's another one that I don't trust the KISS system for, along with BOIL/KOLD.
thanks ...very helpful
Posted by captmet on 17th of Oct 2025 at 08:12 pm
thanks ...very helpful