Posted by kingpin15 on 6th of Oct 2025 at 12:10 pm
I'd argue a move down in rates wont ignite any bullish
thesis in housing next time. Affordability Ceiling Already Hit: Even with lower
rates, home prices remain historically high. Many buyers are still
priced out, especially with stagnant wage growth and tighter
lending standards. Not to mention the "move up" scenario is done.
people kept building equity in their home so they kept moving
up using equity, friends of mine did it 2x, and now their home is
worth less/same as they bought in 2022.
Inventory Constraints Persist: Builders face labor
shortages, zoning restrictions, and high material costs. Lower
rates don’t magically increase supply, so volume growth remains
capped.
Investor Fatigue in Real Estate: Institutional
buyers and REITs already loaded up during the zero-rate era. Their
marginal appetite is lower now, especially with better yield
elsewhere.
Rate Cuts Signal Economic Weakness: If rates are
dropping due to recession fears, housing stocks may get hit by
broader risk-off sentiment and earnings downgrades.
Past Gains Already Baked In: Many housing stocks
rallied hard post-COVID on rate-driven tailwinds. The easy beta
trade is gone; now it’s about execution and fundamentals.
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I'd argue a move down
DHI KBH LEN PHM - cup n handles on all. ...
Posted by kingpin15 on 6th of Oct 2025 at 12:10 pm
Affordability Ceiling Already Hit: Even with lower rates, home prices remain historically high. Many buyers are still priced out, especially with stagnant wage growth and tighter lending standards. Not to mention the "move up" scenario is done. people kept building equity in their home so they kept moving up using equity, friends of mine did it 2x, and now their home is worth less/same as they bought in 2022.